Posslble trendlines (with charts and lines). Which one will hold?

[TERA]

Two parallel logarithmic trends and one linear trend. I guess if Trend 3 holds, then Trend 2 also holds. So the question is whether or not we are looking at Trend 1. Trend 1 would put a buy target around $300, or possible higher depending on how long it takes to hit.

[TERA]

Here is trend 1 on mtgox to show more history of why it might be a valid trend.

[Ibian]

Oh shit, charts and lines. Let me get my astrologer maps out.

Look dude, you were taking a dump over the security just hours ago. Take a break, get some sleep, come back tomorrow.

[skir]

Bitcoin holds little instrinsic value. People are speculating on what the price will be when BitCoin will hold some intrinsic value (when Amazon, Google, eBay, etc. will start accepting payment). Because the price right now is purely speculation, I would not try to conclude long term trends. BitCoin is unlike stocks or fiat because it holds little intrinsic value. Stocks and other investments other than BitCoin have a tangible value. I challenge someone to give me an intrinsic value of BitCoin. I'm also saying that BitCoin will eventually have intrinsic value when it becomes a pseudo mainstream currency

[mgburks77]

Bitcoin holds little instrinsic value. People are speculating on what the price will be when BitCoin will hold some intrinsic value (when Amazon, Google, eBay, etc. will start accepting payment). Because the price right now is purely speculation, I would not try to conclude long term trends. BitCoin is unlike stocks or fiat because it holds little intrinsic value. Stocks and other investments other than BitCoin have a tangible value. I challenge someone to give me an intrinsic value of BitCoin. I'm also saying that BitCoin will eventually have intrinsic value when it becomes a pseudo mainstream currency

Value is entirely subjective, "intrinsic value" means nothing.

[fonzie]

That horizontal line on the bottom(0$), might hold. I´m not sure about this. We´ll see.

Edit: I honestly like your TA, please continue your good work.

[segeln]

the blue line is the trend since beginning 2013. (Gox has reached this line ,which is higher for Gox because their higher prices).All other exchanges are about 250 $ away from this line. This line should hold.
The blue trendline might be a bit too steep as some chartist say a sound line should have an angle of 45 angular degree.
No reason to worry!

The red line is the trendline since 2011

[segeln]

Gox -Line:

[TERA]

So far trends 2+3 seem very strong and that could have been the bottom, or, they could simply be serving as a bulltrap. If this recovery fizzles out or there are more bad events then this trend could eventually give way and the real bottom could be on Trend 1.

I don't agree with the red line in the post above me because it doesn't trace back to the origin of bitcoin like my Trend 1 does.

[MatTheCat]

Two parallel logarithmic trends and one linear trend. I guess if Trend 3 holds, then Trend 2 also holds. So the question is whether or not we are looking at Trend 1. Trend 1 would put a buy target around $300, or possible higher depending on how long it takes to hit.

Bin the logarithmic trends and look horizontally across the chart. There you will find the support and resistance levels that Bitcoin has been consistently playing off.

We have had a $540 double bottom which relates to high volume corrections in Nov and early Dec. For the first time in a long time, we have had price surge from a bottom on very large volume which can only be seen as a bullish indicator, especially since the second $540 bottom was reached on relatively low volume compared with the mass sell-off that resulted in the previous one. Since then however, both the price level and the volume has sunk, and we are now trending in that $650 - $670 low volume 'nothing' range. How the charts develop from here over the next few bundles of 4 hour bars will be very telling. If it can get up above $700 and turn this level into support on high/increasing volume, then in theory, I would have to turn bullish......as I type this however, I have a strong feeling in my gut that only wise course at this point in time is to remain a bear.....but perhaps I am just over cautious.

If $540 support is broke. Next crucial support is at $380 which has been a ultra high volume rebound point for two very different but equally blistering crashes.

[TERA]

Perhaps it is the intersection of the logarthmic trendlines and the horizontal supports which determines when these levels are hit and lead to a final reversal into a bull market?

This could lead you to say that "in one month from now, final support will be found at 380", because that's where the lines intersect.

[MatTheCat]

Perhaps it is the intersection of the logarthmic trendlines and the horizontal supports which determines when these levels are hit and lead to a final reversal into a bull market?

This could lead you to say that "in one month from now, final support will be found at 380", because that's where the lines intersect.

Perhaps I need to investigate logarithmic charts further and more importantly, why they are used. At the present time, they just seem a bit arbitrary to me, but then I am still very a much a novice when it comes to TA. Having said that, the more of the basic maxims that I learn, the more astonished I am by some of the calls of self professed Bitcoin 'large fish' on this forum who have been speculating in Bitcoin since the early days and presumably have hundreds of thousands in Bitcoin accumulated wealth. It is true what they say about Bitcoin and massive piles of 'dumb' money. Certainly makes the market a very interesting one.

Most of these clowns are calling for new highs and scolding noobs for not holding in amongst some horrendously bearish technicals. I wonder how the hell have these people held on to their wealth, or perhaps it is more the case that they still have their wealth because the Bitcoin market hasn't ever turned it's full wrath against their blind faith, yet.

[TERA]

[TERA]

It is looking like the lower route ( in my picture above) will be taken. The triangle seems like it will be breaking downwards. The mini rally a couple days ago has died off and price action has been very weak. There is not enough momentum to avoid a 3-day ema cross and this will break it down even if it has not done so already.

This break down of the green trend will be very panicky and scary as the trend was re-established back in November and has not been broken since, supporting many crashes.

[segeln]

So far trends 2+3 seem very strong and that could have been the bottom, or, they could simply be serving as a bulltrap. If this recovery fizzles out or there are more bad events then this trend could eventually give way and the real bottom could be on Trend 1.

I don't agree with the red line in the post above me because it doesn't trace back to the origin of bitcoin like my Trend 1 does.

ofcourse it does trace back to the origin of bitcoin trading
as i posted at 14.2.
The red line is the trendline since 2011

[TERA]

So far trends 2+3 seem very strong and that could have been the bottom, or, they could simply be serving as a bulltrap. If this recovery fizzles out or there are more bad events then this trend could eventually give way and the real bottom could be on Trend 1.

I don't agree with the red line in the post above me because it doesn't trace back to the origin of bitcoin like my Trend 1 does.

offcourse it does trace back to the origin of bitcoin trading

2 objections:

1. You're looking at gox.
2. There are only 2 points of contact.

[segeln]

2 objections:

1. You're looking at gox.
2. There are only 2 points of contact.

ad 1. in the previous  1. Chart I draw the same red trendline at Bitstamp and it is the same trendline at Gox
ad 2. a line is defined as the connection of 2 Points .

anyway,it does`nt matter.the primary ( red) Trendline is the longterm trendline of bitcoin Price movenments

it is not my fault that the Gox Prices evolved differently to the stamp prices.
this is the only reason for only 2 points of contact

[tutkarz]

I find it always funny that you can draw lines only when you know price already, but future price does not know what lines you were drawing.

[segeln]

I find it always funny that you can draw lines only when you know price already, but future price does not know what lines you were drawing.

you are`nt familiar to TA and what lines say, are you?

[TERA]

Trend 2 (logarithmic) and Trend 3 (linear) are both broken as of today. This is a HUGE breakdown. Trend 2 is the green line on my newer chart. This same breakdown of the green line occured last year due to problems on mtgox.



Now the journey down to the blue lines (Trend 1) begins, but not without one final fight with the horizontal green line. What are you seeing now the green horizontal support trying to hold up on its own while no longer receiving support from the green log trend. This may last a matter of days (or not) before it breaks down.