Is bitcoin more likely to rise about $1,000 or go and stay below $500?

[MatTheCat]

MatTheCat has a point about the wall of buyers stacked up - though looking back there are suddenly more sellers on the other side now, too.

I was indeed only being 'facetious'.

When the market is stationary relative to the mass of buy and sell orders, trust the Bid/Ask walls like you would trust a fox to guard a chicken coop.

[1714930147]

1714930147

[njcarlos]

I think Matt was being facetious.

Heh, yeah, when isn't he?

[Cassius]

Run me through the psychology of that?

MatTheCat has a point about the wall of buyers stacked up - though looking back there are suddenly more sellers on the other side now, too.

I was indeed only being 'facetious'.

When the market is stationary relative to the mass of buy and sell orders, trust the Bid/Ask walls like you would trust a fox to guard a chicken coop.

[frank754]

Time goes more slowly when you spend so much time in front of the computer waiting for the price to rise. This mini-crisis has only been around for about a week. Right now, even though pushing the low 600's USD, I see the bottom end just about where it is now, and hopefully it will push up again to the upper 600's in a day or so. I don't see it breaking 700 in the next few days, but give it 2-3 weeks I see a very good chance of 800 again. That should get the ball rolling. Tough times require patience. As for the long term, it would be nice to see a steady rise, maybe $1100 by May 1? I wouldn't bet on it though, not until we see what happens in the next couple of weeks.

[igorr]

Time goes more slowly when you spend so much time in front of the computer waiting for the price to rise. This mini-crisis has only been around for about a week. Right now, even though pushing the low 600's USD, I see the bottom end just about where it is now, and hopefully it will push up again to the upper 600's in a day or so. I don't see it breaking 700 in the next few days, but give it 2-3 weeks I see a very good chance of 800 again. That should get the ball rolling. Tough times require patience. As for the long term, it would be nice to see a steady rise, maybe $1100 by May 1? I wouldn't bet on it though, not until we see what happens in the next couple of weeks.

457 usd at gox !!!

[MatTheCat]

Run me through the psychology of that?

The psychology of Liar walls?

To affect investor psychology of course. At the time I made my previous post, Bitcoin was at $650? Perhaps if a holder of Bitcoin were stupid enough to trust the huge Bid wall, he would look at the thousands of BTC of orders standing in between the then current $650 and a mere $20 - $30 drop and think that he was safe and that he didn't need to sell. He may then look at the comparatively shallow Ask wall, and think, "gee, with all this buying interest piling up I had better get me some $650 Bitcoin whilst I still can".

Now that we are at $590, and probably much lower by the time you read this, perhaps you can see why an investor shouldn't place too much faith in what the Bid/Ask wall is telling him about the market conditions.

These walls need not be 'liar walls' as such, they may be genuine in that there are forces out there with much more to lose than the nominal value of thier crypto holdings if Bitcoin goes dramatically down. There might be huge sums of money being put into these walls that will really stand and absorb any dump that comes it's way, without attempting to immediately liquidate at the next best opportunity that comes along. But the fact that we have this one bullish indicator (the huge Bid volume across all exchanges), in amongst a shit-storm of bearish indicators and sentiment, should tell you not to make any Bitcoin decision based on what the Wall is telling you.

[Cassius]

Run me through the psychology of that?

The psychology of Liar walls?

To affect investor psychology of course. At the time I made my previous post, Bitcoin was at $650? Perhaps if a holder of Bitcoin were stupid enough to trust the huge Bid wall, he would look at the thousands of BTC of orders standing in between the then current $650 and a mere $20 - $30 drop and think that he was safe and that he didn't need to sell. He may then look at the comparatively shallow Ask wall, and think, "gee, with all this buying interest piling up I had better get me some $650 Bitcoin whilst I still can".

Now that we are at $590, and probably much lower by the time you read this, perhaps you can see why an investor shouldn't place too much faith in what the Bid/Ask wall is telling him about the market conditions.

These walls need not be 'liar walls' as such, they may be genuine in that there are forces out there with much more to lose than the nominal value of thier crypto holdings if Bitcoin goes dramatically down. There might be huge sums of money being put into these walls that will really stand and absorb any dump that comes it's way, without attempting to immediately liquidate at the next best opportunity that comes along. But the fact that we have this one bullish indicator (the huge Bid volume across all exchanges), in amongst a shit-storm of bearish indicators and sentiment, should tell you not to make any Bitcoin decision based on what the Wall is telling you.

Ok, misunderstood what you were saying (or, at least, the exact way in which you were being facetious).
Bid walls aren't a reliable indicator that the market is going to do the opposite of what they suggest on the surface of it - they're an apparent indicator that isn't reliable in any sense? Of course, if there were any really reliable indicators, the market would take that into account and do something different...
Makes me wish I hadn't sold my house and bought at $640 though.