[2018-07-05] At What Price of Bitcoin Will the Market Panic?

[ruthbabe]

When the rate of the oldest cryptocurrency reaches $6,000, the market will be awash with sales in the opinion of analyst Jani Ziedins. When analyzing the market of cryptocurrencies, some try to indicate the coveted lower level of the price of Bitcoin, after which the "snowball" effect may be triggered, and the market decline will no longer be controllable. Ziedins suggested that the cryptocurrency market should be ready for a new fall by saying "Bitcoin had a terrible time in May, and it looks like things will get worse." And he was partly right, as judging by the results of June, it is clear that last month was no better for Bitcoin than May.

Ziedins said that "we are in a situation of a long-term downtrend, and lower levels still lie ahead. Overcoming the resistance level of $7,000 will already cause a wave of sales." As early as June 10, Bitcoin cost $6,800, just edging to the declared terminal level of $6,000. Market capitalization was then balancing at around $300 billion. In mid-June, it seemed that the decline below the low of the year at $5,947, which was observed on February 9, would be a big shock for the market. On June 22, however, Bitcoin found a new price bottom of the year at the level of $5,935. The last time such a value of the cryptocurrency was observed was in November of last year. And on June 24, Bitcoin even punched through that bottom, reaching around $5,890. After this and until the middle of this week, the No. 1 cryptocurrency showed growth, growing more expensive in the last seven days by $700. There was no panic, so Ziedins was mistaken in this regard.

The instruments of technical analysis that came from the classical securities and forex markets in the form of the alignment of resistance lines that control bears, as well as the support lines that are maintained by the bulls, are actively used in forecasting the behavior of the prices of cryptocurrencies. Here is what happens: with the same picture of the past that analysts have, they are building lines that do not coincide. This again indicates the subjectivity of the approach of this method of forecasting.


More here, https://decenter.org/coins/633-panic-about-bitcoin-en

[1713904530]

1713904530

[1Referee]

Sub $5000 will definitely squeeze out week hands. However, between $5000-$5500 there are several points at which support will kick in, so the likeliness of a sub $5000 visit is pretty small, and if it happens, it will only be a brief occurrence. People likely won't be able to buy it unless they pre-set their buy orders just in case, but then again, if more people do that, there is less incentive to dump the price down below the $5000 level.

In the end the only thing that matters is what is my risk and what is my reward based on my investment target.

Simple calculation based on what I have written above.

Buy at $6000 and price drops to $5000 = virtual short term loss of $1000.
Buy at $6000 and price increases to $50,000 in the coming year or two = virtual long term gain of $43,000.

Even if it drops to $3000 (won't happen, but just as an example) your virtual loss is still $3000 versus a $43,000 gain later on.

In other words, Bitcoin is a strong buy right now already.

[buwaytress]

Couldn't have said it better. Of course, the 5k barrier/floor still represents some form of psychological impetus, but I suspect everyone who's partial to panic has already panicked and probably clicked sell a long time ago. Those freshly in at around 7k probably will also be tempted to cut losses at 5k or 30% but as you put it, the ATH promise is too strong.

Be interesting at 5k, my own prediction is a 5.5k low, in some thread somewhere based on amateur RSI data, but tempting to be earning below a 5k price. When $50 is already over BTC 0.01.

[Carlton Banks]

DANGER - I'm just about to try and qualify a "this time it's different" argument

But I think it could be different this time. Bitcoin has always had a definitive "price capitulation" event, where unusually high trade volume happens in just a few hours, the price dropping by precipitously similar proportions (like 20-40% price & volume differences). That underlines the market bottom, and a long (6-18 months) price stagnation then follows.

But the market will evemtually mature in such a way that these easily recognised/well-defined flash crash capitulations to indicate the market bottom no longer occur. It might not be this time, but eventually it will, and anyone waiting for a "capitulation event" will realise too late that the market no longer provides such an event.

[stomachgrowls]

Sub $5000 will definitely squeeze out week hands. However, between $5000-$5500 there are several points at which support will kick in, so the likeliness of a sub $5000 visit is pretty small, and if it happens, it will only be a brief occurrence. People likely won't be able to buy it unless they pre-set their buy orders just in case, but then again, if more people do that, there is less incentive to dump the price down below the $5000 level.

In the end the only thing that matters is what is my risk and what is my reward based on my investment target.

Simple calculation based on what I have written above.

Buy at $6000 and price drops to $5000 = virtual short term loss of $1000.
Buy at $6000 and price increases to $50,000 in the coming year or two = virtual long term gain of $43,000.

Even if it drops to $3000 (won't happen, but just as an example) your virtual loss is still $3000 versus a $43,000 gain later on.

In other words, Bitcoin is a strong buy right now already.

Im not used to  believe too much on technical indicators but it had been mentioned for how many times about that strong support on 5k range but wont still guaranteed if it can hold up if theres a breakout depending on the current market condition specially with the involvement of big players then i would say going that range will shaken out weak holders and for those who can sustain such pressure that can able to withstand such stress of price decrease will not really be that easy.Even for now this is already a good price point to accumulate cheap coins.

[richardsNY]

I don't think there is much left to panic for. If I had bought at insanely high price levels and the market went down after that, I would actually hope for a further decline because that would allow me to wash out my expensive entry point by buying in lower. People however don't look at the market like that, which is a wasted opportunity for them. That being said, this market does the opposite of what we believe it will do, and when the "real" panic kicks in, that would be an extremely bullish signal for me to buy as many coins as possible. Warren Buffett as long term value investors loves corrections of his favorite stocks, because he knows they will pay off in the long run. Bitcoin is our favorite 'stock' so buy whenever you can....

[Slow death]

Simple calculation based on what I have written above.

Buy at $6000 and price drops to $5000 = virtual short term loss of $1000.
Buy at $6000 and price increases to $50,000 in the coming year or two = virtual long term gain of $43,000.

Even if it drops to $3000 (won't happen, but just as an example) your virtual loss is still $3000 versus a $43,000 gain later on.

In other words, Bitcoin is a strong buy right now already.

It would be great if many people could see this calculation because if many people could see this calculation, we would avoid panic sales and avoid creating many threads with the same question: "is bitcoin falling, should I sell or should I hold?". "You think the price of bitcoin is going to rise again" or other people still ask questions like: "Is bitcoin dead?"

When the rate of the oldest cryptocurrency reaches $6,000, the market will be awash with sales in the opinion of analyst Jani Ziedins.

This is already predictable, people always think that the price is falling to $0 and in an attempt to save some of their money they sell with losses

[darkangel11]

First of all, one thing is always true for every investment: most people lose, only a small number makes money, so you should never follow the herd? What does the herd do? Wait, because it may not be going up, and as time passess buy they grow more and more confident and finally enter, but it's already too late. When the price falls they always wait and wait, watch it go down, because maybe the correction won't happen, maybe it's not real, and then they dump in a one big wave. This wave has already happened and you can see that by volume going down with every consecutive drop. In January and February it was huge. Now, not so much. Even if we fall to 5000 now it won't cause panic, there's more people waiting to enter at these prices than people willing to sell.

[felixesteban]

I think panic sell will be very effective if it reaches $ 1000 . Of course, this price may vary according to person because everyone's level of purchase is different .

[dark1234]

probably in 2018 is a very bad year for bitcoin and many INVESTOR assuming these days will be very long even if there are from some of them by looking at existing technical garfik and comparing with the previous year maramalkan there will be an increase at the end of 2018 as much ...... $
but these are all estimates that may all be real but I still assume my own that it holds my bitcoin when the price drops until I get the profit from what I invest and keep buying and selling as a true trader and hope the friends' positive assumptions become real because they are tired of waiting so some of them sell it because of repeated panic