POLL: Is Mt. Gox Solvent?

[Gulinborsti]

Even if they had problems in the past 9 months (USD withdrawals) I can't believe that it is due to fiat shortage. My bet is that they are hard under pressure by some regulations - they told us about problems with compliance last year.
There was enough volume on MtGox in the last few months to fill their pockets on fees only and the last week gave them enough opportunity to fill their pockets on the price divergence between MtGox and the-rest-of-the-world coins ...

[ArticMine]

If I was to give MTGox a credit rating https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bond_credit_rating it has to be D in default.

If we break it out by currency

We have

BTC - D
USD - D
CAD - D
AUD - D
GBP - D
EUR - C (Some but not all payments are getting through, but there is imminent risk of default)
JPY - CC (Although payments are getting through, there is imminent risk of default)

I would weight MTGox's liabilities as 50% BTC and 50% fiat with the bulk of the fiat in USD. MTGox has been in USD default since last summer.
I voted NO

Edit: Correction I am now downgrading MTGox JPY from CC to C negative and changing my outlook MTGox EUR to C negative. See this post https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=428242.msg5207137#msg5207137 JPY withdrawals are now been delayed.

[mp420]

MtGox is solvent. They only had $10.5 million seized and a few thousand BTC lost. They've recouped much more than that.

No one claiming they're insolvent has any kind of explanation of "where did all the money go".

What Mark has all but admitted is that they're operating under a gag order by a US court. They also have problems with both Japanese and European authoritites, which is why they have so low limits for outgoing payments. (IIRC it was 100 million JPY / day INCLUDING the emergency USD withdrawals and 200k EUR per day.) My guess is that the JPY delays are about those emergency manual SWIFT transfers.

The BTC withdrawal problems are just their technical incompetence.

I'm not defending them but I'm just saying there's no way they're insolvent (at least yet). This is not a gambling business where margins are low and competition is harsh. Gox is making good money off trading fees even today, even when their exchange is severely crippled.

[smoothie]

MtGox is solvent. They only had $10.5 million seized and a few thousand BTC lost. They've recouped much more than that.

No one claiming they're insolvent has any kind of explanation of "where did all the money go".

What Mark has all but admitted is that they're operating under a gag order by a US court. They also have problems with both Japanese and European authoritites, which is why they have so low limits for outgoing payments. (IIRC it was 100 million JPY / day INCLUDING the emergency USD withdrawals and 200k EUR per day.) My guess is that the JPY delays are about those emergency manual SWIFT transfers.

The BTC withdrawal problems are just their technical incompetence.

I'm not defending them but I'm just saying there's no way they're insolvent (at least yet). This is not a gambling business where margins are low and competition is harsh. Gox is making good money off trading fees even today, even when their exchange is severely crippled.

Why would we have an explanation of where the money went?

MTGOX has the burden of proof concerning their solvency, not us.

[mp420]

MtGox is solvent. They only had $10.5 million seized and a few thousand BTC lost. They've recouped much more than that.

No one claiming they're insolvent has any kind of explanation of "where did all the money go".

What Mark has all but admitted is that they're operating under a gag order by a US court. They also have problems with both Japanese and European authoritites, which is why they have so low limits for outgoing payments. (IIRC it was 100 million JPY / day INCLUDING the emergency USD withdrawals and 200k EUR per day.) My guess is that the JPY delays are about those emergency manual SWIFT transfers.

The BTC withdrawal problems are just their technical incompetence.

I'm not defending them but I'm just saying there's no way they're insolvent (at least yet). This is not a gambling business where margins are low and competition is harsh. Gox is making good money off trading fees even today, even when their exchange is severely crippled.

Why would we have an explanation of where the money went?

MTGOX has the burden of proof concerning their solvency, not us.

The thing is, I'm not arguing who has the burden of proof but I'm arguing that insolvency is not a plausible explanation of what has happened, unless someone can think of where all that money went. If Mark hasn't lost all customers' money playing poker, Gox should still have it.

Also, they're making quite a bit of money off the panic. If Mark intends to close the exchange and pay out all debts, causing people to panic now would profit him quite nicely.

[frankenmint]

Mt.Gox is Dead.  Doesn't matter what it does or doesn't.  The ONLY question, is will BITCOIN survive?


Scenario #1

MT. Gox fixes the problem, EVERY user will withdraw BTC and FIAT at the same time, which will cause the market to crash even more.


Scenario #2

Gox knows that Scenario #1 could happened so they limit on how much BTC each user could withdraw, which will create a Panic Sale and try to withdraw FIAT.


Scenario #3

Gox knows that Scenario #2 could happened so they limit on how much BTC and FIAT each user could withdraw, which will killed the market..


Scenario #4

Gox goes into Bankruptcy, taking Crypto to hell and under, which will take a very very long time to recover, if ever.


AND THIS OPTION APPLY, to any scenario and its applying already.

In the Public View, Bitcoin and Crypto Currency is and always been a Ponzi Scheme. <-- They have been calling Bitcoin, that for the longest time.

what makes scenario 4 even a factor why with coinbase coinex bitstamp kraken coinmkt and btc-e?  :/  I'm jsut saying that seems really a bit over the top imho.

[CrashX]

Mt.Gox is Dead.  Doesn't matter what it does or doesn't.  The ONLY question, is will BITCOIN survive?


Scenario #1

MT. Gox fixes the problem, EVERY user will withdraw BTC and FIAT at the same time, which will cause the market to crash even more.


Scenario #2

Gox knows that Scenario #1 could happened so they limit on how much BTC each user could withdraw, which will create a Panic Sale and try to withdraw FIAT.


Scenario #3

Gox knows that Scenario #2 could happened so they limit on how much BTC and FIAT each user could withdraw, which will killed the market..


Scenario #4

Gox goes into Bankruptcy, taking Crypto to hell and under, which will take a very very long time to recover, if ever.


AND THIS OPTION APPLY, to any scenario and its applying already.

In the Public View, Bitcoin and Crypto Currency is and always been a Ponzi Scheme. <-- They have been calling Bitcoin, that for the longest time.

what makes scenario 4 even a factor why with coinbase coinex bitstamp kraken coinmkt and btc-e?  :/  I'm jsut saying that seems really a bit over the top imho.

Scenario #4, I was talking about Bitcoin and Crypto currency, it will drop like it was a virus.

At this moment Mt. Gox is at $134.xx , ever other market is falling it.

Even thought in a Normal point of view, this should be good for Bitcoin as a large volume of BTC might be remove or lost from a major exchange. Which means less BTC's in the market.

But and a BIG BUT, is that its rise in price was giving to popularity on the Media.


Remember Remember the 18th of November,



Thanks "V", had to use your quote.