Recovery? What Recovery? February Speculation. | WSC Team

[alpha492]

http://www.wallstreetcrypto.net/2014/02/recovery-what-recovery-february.html

Our thoughts on a month that has been pretty rough.

A lot of negative media in addition to wavering fundamentals we see no reason the markets will improve anytime soon (soon being 2-4 weeks).

Enjoy, and let us know what you think.

[fonzie]

Great work. Thanks. Seems to be spot on!

[Dr Bloggood]

Interesting.

What's your price target for 1 year and 3 years?

[roslinpl]

Recovery bitcoin is recovered enough and it is going stronger each day.

[alpha492]

Interesting.

What's your price target for 1 year and 3 years?

Haha, to be honest my friend I'm a trader.  I have no idea when it comes to years, I can however tell you weeks and perhaps a couple of months.

[MatTheCat]

http://www.wallstreetcrypto.net/2014/02/recovery-what-recovery-february.html

Our thoughts on a month that has been pretty rough.

A lot of negative media in addition to wavering fundamentals we see no reason the markets will improve anytime soon (soon being 2-4 weeks).

Enjoy, and let us know what you think.

Heretic eh?

Questioning the 'recovery'?

You aren't going to win friends and influence people around here with material like that.

[alpha492]

http://www.wallstreetcrypto.net/2014/02/recovery-what-recovery-february.html

Our thoughts on a month that has been pretty rough.

A lot of negative media in addition to wavering fundamentals we see no reason the markets will improve anytime soon (soon being 2-4 weeks).

Enjoy, and let us know what you think.

Heretic eh?

Questioning the 'recovery'?

You aren't going to win friends and influence people around here with material like that.

lol, that's kind of a compliment coming from the legendary enemy of the church MatTheCat.  Oh well, we both got to go short at 800 !

[keithers]

IMO this forum is equally divided with people who either

a) have a "to the moon" mentality and just want the value to skyrocket ASAP
b) want the value to crash so that they can buy more "cheap coins"
c) haters who are disgruntled that they feel that they missed the boat on becoming an instant millionaire, so they want the value to plummet so that it is painful to the early adopters
d) want slow sustainable growth
e) have a total of 0.25 btc or less to their name, but still cry that the sky is falling when they see btc value go down $25 or more

I am option D, but lately it seems this forum is flooded with more and more C and E

[alpha492]

IMO this forum is equally divided with people who either

a) have a "to the moon" mentality and just want the value to skyrocket ASAP
b) want the value to crash so that they can buy more "cheap coins"
c) haters who are disgruntled that they feel that they missed the boat on becoming an instant millionaire, so they want the value to plummet so that it is painful to the early adopters
d) want slow sustainable growth
e) have a total of 0.25 btc or less to their name, but still cry that the sky is falling when they see btc value go down $25 or more

I am option D, but lately it seems this forum is flooded with more and more C and E

Haha, sounds about right.  Like I said to an earlier commentor the value of BTC 1+ years from now is a total mystery to me and I don't claim to know.  I think cryptocurrency is the future but that doesn't necessarily make BTC worth 10k a coin.  Fiat at one point was the future of gold but that didn't make fiat worth 10k gold coins.

But in the end speculation on that timescale is outside the reach of my skills, and it would be dishonest to readers to pretend I had any idea.

[alpha492]

Lemme give this a bump before it falls into the archives

[raskul]

waiting for igorr putin to pitch in...

[Dr Bloggood]

Interesting.

What's your price target for 1 year and 3 years?

Haha, to be honest my friend I'm a trader.  I have no idea when it comes to years, I can however tell you weeks and perhaps a couple of months.

I see. Well, you give pretty precise short-term targets, so it will be easy to soon see if you are right or not.

And in case you were right, I wanted to get some more predictions.

But there seems to be a lot of confusion about your predictions in the posts in this thread - it almost seems like they haven't read your article. What you are predicting, in my book is very POSITIVE. You are saying down to $500 soon and then up. I really don't care where BTC is next week or next month, I'm in this for longer term. So what you are saying is just bullish in the end.

[alpha492]

Yes,

A few weeks down the road I have a slight bullish outlook, I think the supports at 500 will end up holding and after the market tests them we will see a cautious rise.

[MatTheCat]

Yes,

A few weeks down the road I have a slight bullish outlook, I think the supports at 500 will end up holding and after the market tests them we will see a cautious rise.

Ya know what. I really don't think this.

No TA, and no otherwise rational analysis.

I just believe we are heading much lower than $500 and even $400.

[oda.krell]

Good article (as was the last one I read, about optimal position size, even though we disagreed perhaps on the conclusions).

I don't have the tools or the intuition to say if we're seeing a potential reversal in a few weeks, but I will note the following:

In the current 2 week downtrend (starting from 800, stamp prices), the minor retraction on Feb 14 (EDIT) was the first sign of life of the market that I've seen.

(don't waste your breath, Matthecat, I'm pretty bearish as well, just noting subtle differences).

I've said that much 3 or 4 days ago: the charts continue looking ugly, but volume based indicators started looking a bit better, as did bid/ask ratio over time.

Now the most recent drama on gox certainly put an end to that possible recovery, but my point is, I will be watching for similar signs in the coming weeks. At some point, we will probably turn around, and pent up buying pressure tends to show itself in volume based metrics rather reliable in Bitcoin markets, in my experience.

That said: for now, the trend is pretty clearly further downwards.

[Dafar]

IMO this forum is equally divided with people who either

a) have a "to the moon" mentality and just want the value to skyrocket ASAP
b) want the value to crash so that they can buy more "cheap coins"
c) haters who are disgruntled that they feel that they missed the boat on becoming an instant millionaire, so they want the value to plummet so that it is painful to the early adopters
d) want slow sustainable growth
e) have a total of 0.25 btc or less to their name, but still cry that the sky is falling when they see btc value go down $25 or more

I am option D, but lately it seems this forum is flooded with more and more C and E

I vote for A.... its good for everyone

[DrBitcoin]

IMO this forum is equally divided with people who either

a) have a "to the moon" mentality and just want the value to skyrocket ASAP
b) want the value to crash so that they can buy more "cheap coins"
c) haters who are disgruntled that they feel that they missed the boat on becoming an instant millionaire, so they want the value to plummet so that it is painful to the early adopters
d) want slow sustainable growth
e) have a total of 0.25 btc or less to their name, but still cry that the sky is falling when they see btc value go down $25 or more

I am option D, but lately it seems this forum is flooded with more and more C and E

Good point. Count my in category "b," followed by "d"

[alpha492]

Yes,

A few weeks down the road I have a slight bullish outlook, I think the supports at 500 will end up holding and after the market tests them we will see a cautious rise.

Ya know what. I really don't think this.

No TA, and no otherwise rational analysis.

I just believe we are heading much lower than $500 and even $400.

Maybe, I have to reiterate though I'm trying to give a traders perspective.  When I say I'm 'bullish' I don't at all mean the next few months are going to be great and bitcoin will continue its rise to infinity.

All I mean is pending the movement I think will happen in the next 2 to 3 weeks the market will see a short period of recovery for maybe a week or two.

But this far off I can't really give any strongly founded analysis, so its understandable if you disagree.

[donjoe]

IMO this forum is equally divided with people who either

a) have a "to the moon" mentality and just want the value to skyrocket ASAP
b) want the value to crash so that they can buy more "cheap coins"
c) haters who are disgruntled that they feel that they missed the boat on becoming an instant millionaire, so they want the value to plummet so that it is painful to the early adopters
d) want slow sustainable growth
e) have a total of 0.25 btc or less to their name, but still cry that the sky is falling when they see btc value go down $25 or more

... among which Ds are the most delusional and probably think BTC can actually function as a currency in the long term.

[alpha492]

IMO this forum is equally divided with people who either

a) have a "to the moon" mentality and just want the value to skyrocket ASAP
b) want the value to crash so that they can buy more "cheap coins"
c) haters who are disgruntled that they feel that they missed the boat on becoming an instant millionaire, so they want the value to plummet so that it is painful to the early adopters
d) want slow sustainable growth
e) have a total of 0.25 btc or less to their name, but still cry that the sky is falling when they see btc value go down $25 or more

... among which Ds are the most delusional and probably think BTC can actually function as a currency in the long term.

Cryptocurrency has proven to be the preferred transnational instrument of the darkweb at the very least.