ETF approving in August, how much it will affect the price?

[Lucius]

In the past, we have seen a few attempts of ETF ( exchange-traded fund ) for BTC, but they are rejected by SEC ( US Securities and Exchange Commission ). Now there is a new attempt for ETF from CBOE ( Chicago Board Options Exchange ) for which decision should be made in next month ( August 2018 ).

Unlike past attempts some things have changed and most agree that the chances for acceptance of this ETF are much bigger then before. The biggest change is that SEC recognized BTC as a currency instead securities, and some things are much clearer then before.

Some calculations say that hundreds of billions $ could enter in crypto market and push price even over 40 000$. Thus at first it seems to ETF would be really big thing for BTC regarding ease of investing.

Let me describe how “easy” it is. Once the Securities and Exchange Commission allows Bitcoin ETFs, anyone with a 401K, IRA, or an investment account, like with the following top five broker-dealers, could invest in Bitcoin with a simple click — no wire transfer or credit card fees, no explaining Coinbase, other crypto exchanges, and security hurdles.

https://medium.com/ironwood-rg/how-etfs-can-bring-bitcoin-over-35k-aacc58477b7e

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[cellard]

I think saying "anyone" is a bit misleading. Correct me if im wrong, but you are going to need to invest 25 BTC minimum with this ETF, so it's not designed for the average joe, only for people that are probably millionaires already. Of course, this doesn't change the very bullish news, since the % of millionaires are the % that owns most of the wealth anyway.

I recently made a thread analyzing the price of Gold before the ETF and after the ETF, and how it looks exactly as Bitcoin does now right before the ETF, which would coincide and confirm the triple bottom scenario as the definitive bottom before the next big pump.

[fabiorem]

I dont want to look like a bulltard, but my guess, if the ETF is approved, is 20k by the end of August, and 50k by the end of the year.

[harizen]

ETF dissapproval last year leads into bitcoin surging continously until it reached it's new ATH. Although the following months until now, the result in not that pleasant to others.

So for me, approved or dissaproved I really don't bother on what will happened. Although there will be an advantage, I will just wait for the response of community about the result and what will be the impact of it to the bitcoin price.

Lots of positive speculations surely will be made while it's approaching and some will consider that it will be the same scenario like before. That upcoming event just giving me lots of thinkings on my head so I will just sit back and relax.

[bobo012]

In the past, we have seen a few attempts of ETF ( exchange-traded fund ) for BTC, but they are rejected by SEC ( US Securities and Exchange Commission ). Now there is a new attempt for ETF from CBOE ( Chicago Board Options Exchange ) for which decision should be made in next month ( August 2018 ).

Unlike past attempts some things have changed and most agree that the chances for acceptance of this ETF are much bigger then before. The biggest change is that SEC recognized BTC as a currency instead securities, and some things are much clearer then before.

Some calculations say that hundreds of billions $ could enter in crypto market and push price even over 40 000$. Thus at first it seems to ETF would be really big thing for BTC regarding ease of investing.

Let me describe how “easy” it is. Once the Securities and Exchange Commission allows Bitcoin ETFs, anyone with a 401K, IRA, or an investment account, like with the following top five broker-dealers, could invest in Bitcoin with a simple click — no wire transfer or credit card fees, no explaining Coinbase, other crypto exchanges, and security hurdles.

https://medium.com/ironwood-rg/how-etfs-can-bring-bitcoin-over-35k-aacc58477b7e

I dont think it will pump immediately, but approvement will signal the new era. An era that can take us into 50000 range. I just think it wont happen over night but gradually. I think in the next 4 years

[pitiflin]

In the past, we have seen a few attempts of ETF ( exchange-traded fund ) for BTC, but they are rejected by SEC ( US Securities and Exchange Commission ). Now there is a new attempt for ETF from CBOE ( Chicago Board Options Exchange ) for which decision should be made in next month ( August 2018 ).

Unlike past attempts some things have changed and most agree that the chances for acceptance of this ETF are much bigger then before. The biggest change is that SEC recognized BTC as a currency instead securities, and some things are much clearer then before.

Some calculations say that hundreds of billions $ could enter in crypto market and push price even over 40 000$. Thus at first it seems to ETF would be really big thing for BTC regarding ease of investing.

Let me describe how “easy” it is. Once the Securities and Exchange Commission allows Bitcoin ETFs, anyone with a 401K, IRA, or an investment account, like with the following top five broker-dealers, could invest in Bitcoin with a simple click — no wire transfer or credit card fees, no explaining Coinbase, other crypto exchanges, and security hurdles.

https://medium.com/ironwood-rg/how-etfs-can-bring-bitcoin-over-35k-aacc58477b7e

I was being misguided on these ETFs before, and thanks I needed to read this.

Honestly, this can be the big breakthrough,everyone has been hoping for. If these ETFs get approved, a bullish trend is for sure on its way. However, these ETFs can screw things up. I have seen people being scammed by brokers and related exchanges by showing them a balance but having withdraw or deposit option. They only had a buy option and an automatic sell option. So basically people would buy it at a comparatively higher price and sell at a lower price.  I really think if someone should buy bitcoin, it should be the traditional way. I don't want people to look at it as a security/get rich scheme,which they will after the ETF gets approved. People should really be interested in what's behind the crypto and be a true investor.

[Lucius]

I think saying "anyone" is a bit misleading. Correct me if im wrong, but you are going to need to invest 25 BTC minimum with this ETF, so it's not designed for the average joe, only for people that are probably millionaires already. Of course, this doesn't change the very bullish news, since the % of millionaires are the % that owns most of the wealth anyway.

I recently made a thread analyzing the price of Gold before the ETF and after the ETF, and how it looks exactly as Bitcoin does now right before the ETF, which would coincide and confirm the triple bottom scenario as the definitive bottom before the next big pump.

Maybe that "anyone" is a bit misleading, it actually applies on people who have 401K ( A 401K is a retirement savings plan sponsored by an employer. It lets workers save and invest a piece of their paycheck before taxes are taken out. Taxes aren't paid until the money is withdrawn from the account ), IRA (An individual retirement account is an investing tool individuals use to earn and earmark funds for retirement savings ), or an investment account. I am not sure where you get 25 BTC minimum investment, i read also something about that before, maybe somebody can do a little better clarify on that?

Regarding gold, it is interesting comparison but gold is too different from BTC in many ways. It would be great to BTC went the same way as gold, and who knows, maybe even become more successful in the end

I dont think it will pump immediately, but approvement will signal the new era. An era that can take us into 50000 range. I just think it wont happen over night but gradually. I think in the next 4 years

Probably not as you say, if CBOE application be accepted next month, investments will be available in the first quarter of next year. Anyway, on the wings of such a positive news BTC price should rise, but only in case that ETF be accepted.

[CryptoGuro1]

ETF will surely create some more FOMO, but price action we have already is reflecting potential good news from it, the market is very shaken due to the bear market, this may be a catalyst for some good rises, however i would not get your hopes up, we have had many of these "events" over the last few months and I like to think this market goes the opposite direction than what we want it to

[cellard]

I think saying "anyone" is a bit misleading. Correct me if im wrong, but you are going to need to invest 25 BTC minimum with this ETF, so it's not designed for the average joe, only for people that are probably millionaires already. Of course, this doesn't change the very bullish news, since the % of millionaires are the % that owns most of the wealth anyway.

I recently made a thread analyzing the price of Gold before the ETF and after the ETF, and how it looks exactly as Bitcoin does now right before the ETF, which would coincide and confirm the triple bottom scenario as the definitive bottom before the next big pump.

Maybe that "anyone" is a bit misleading, it actually applies on people who have 401K ( A 401K is a retirement savings plan sponsored by an employer. It lets workers save and invest a piece of their paycheck before taxes are taken out. Taxes aren't paid until the money is withdrawn from the account ), IRA (An individual retirement account is an investing tool individuals use to earn and earmark funds for retirement savings ), or an investment account. I am not sure where you get 25 BTC minimum investment, i read also something about that before, maybe somebody can do a little better clarify on that?

Regarding gold, it is interesting comparison but gold is too different from BTC in many ways. It would be great to BTC went the same way as gold, and who knows, maybe even become more successful in the end

I dont think it will pump immediately, but approvement will signal the new era. An era that can take us into 50000 range. I just think it wont happen over night but gradually. I think in the next 4 years

Probably not as you say, if CBOE application be accepted next month, investments will be available in the first quarter of next year. Anyway, on the wings of such a positive news BTC price should rise, but only in case that ETF be accepted.

Shares are valued at 25 per share, so that is the minimum amount you could invest wtih this ETF if im not mistaken:

One interesting thing that the request for VanEck SolidX BTC Trust was already made earlier. Twice, in fact, and both applications for a license were rejected last year, in March. Back then, SEC claimed that the market is completely unregulated, and they just couldn’t allow it with a situation like that. Now, things are different, and the same request came once again.

Each of the shares would be valued at 25 BTC, and SolidX Bitcoin Shares would be the only ones that would be traded. This is what the VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust is proposing. The unfortunate thing is that the investors will not receive this as a trading option even if the approval does arrive. At least not until the beginning of 2019.


Read more at http://globalcoinreport.com/sec-receives-yet-another-bitcoin-etf-license-request/

So basically, have $185k at current prices ready to invest if you want to get in this ETF.
I don't expect anyone worth less than a million USD to get involved, that's 36 million people out there.

Also no availability until next year.

[Diablomania]

There are still 20 days to go until it happens, i think that we can not speculate much about this, because there is still a long path to recover. But i am more than sure in that the price will be going up very strongly during the next few days.

[STT]

I dont want to look like a bulltard, but my guess, if the ETF is approved, is 20k by the end of August, and 50k by the end of the year.

I think thats every so slightly too optimistic.   The ETF will take time to accumulate holdings, pension funds are an annual allocation and I dont think people just pile into the ETF.      The plain holding company as a way to access this 'commodity' is just convenience more then definitely going to increase demand.


Its a positive but lets not carried away.  Lots of potential sellers exist in the BTC price between here and 20,000 and they all have to be satisfied first before go past those points.   We have supply ready in the price above is my point

[Slow death]

Now there is a new attempt for ETF from CBOE ( Chicago Board Options Exchange ) for which decision should be made in next month ( August 2018 ).

Unlike past attempts some things have changed and most agree that the chances for acceptance of this ETF are much bigger then before. The biggest change is that SEC recognized BTC as a currency instead securities, and some things are much clearer then before.

In my humble opinion and having seen how it was in the past, I would say they have some chance, but I do not have great expectations of them being accepted. regulators seem to always make difficult when it comes to bitcoin

Some calculations say that hundreds of billions $ could enter in crypto market and push price even over 40 000$. Thus at first it seems to ETF would be really big thing for BTC regarding ease of investing.

well, I'm not a professional economist so I had to read the article several times and it seemed to me that the calculations are very well accepted when he says:

Adding $420 billion to the market cap could put Bitcoin’s price range from $26,000 to $44,000.

seems to me a possible price to be reached

[aoluain]

I wouldnt get too carried away either, im a bit sceptical really. Before its approved i would
imagine they will be looking at the negative effects of approval, i dont know what those
negatives would be though if any other than giving more power to bitcoin and crypto at a
time when i think the establishment dont necessarily want to do such a thing.

I think there will be a lot of speculation on the lead up to approval and if its approved the
price could fall !

[exstasie]

Unlike past attempts some things have changed and most agree that the chances for acceptance of this ETF are much bigger then before. The biggest change is that SEC recognized BTC as a currency instead securities, and some things are much clearer then before.

Who says the chances are much bigger now? I'm only getting this sentiment from bitcoin holders. I don't think the SEC's position on BTC has changed in the past several years. They may have clarified their position, but that doesn't necessarily have bearing on an ETF's chances of approval.

Some calculations say that hundreds of billions $ could enter in crypto market and push price even over 40 000$. Thus at first it seems to ETF would be really big thing for BTC regarding ease of investing.

You have a source for that?

Something of note: an ETF does not provide access to bitcoin. The trustee controls the fund and issues shares. No spot BTC will be bought. There is an assumption of arbitrage, but what I'm getting at is this: spot market demand doesn't wait for ETFs or futures or any other kind of securities.

An ETF may increase ease of access to Bitcoin exposure, but remember, ETF investors (and inverse ETF traders as the case may be) can also get that exposure through futures markets.

[STT]

I think there will be a lot of speculation on the lead up to approval and if its approved the
price could fall !

Buy the rumour and sell the news.    This could all be quite negative either way in that short term way, I'm following this thread and the news generally because I want to see how people are really believing this will happen or not.

I have not yet jeard anything that convinced me it will occur but if the market generally thinks its a good reason to buy, to front run this future demand in speculation then it becomes a factor before the fact.    
This is a very common dynamic in markets.   I remember the last halvening and all the hype from that, well it was quite boring and generally a bit of a sell.  We did of course pick up long term but it wasnt the blast off people wanted.   Sometimes you got to speculate on the speculators themselves

Any news on the ETF I'm glad to hear about but I'd expect the regulator to be considering widows and orphans and should unsophisticated investors be involved and able to access BTC with any greater ease

[BitcoinHodler]

i still think ETF is not going to be approved and based on lack of reaction in the market to this news i think i am not alone in this.

but in case that ETF was approved this time based on things that OP has listed here and the changes that has actually happened in the past year ever since last ETF rejection, we may see a big rally start up. and in that case we can see at least $10k+ before 30 days go by.

[Lucius]

So basically, have $185k at current prices ready to invest if you want to get in this ETF.
I don't expect anyone worth less than a million USD to get involved, that's 36 million people out there.

Also no availability until next year.

Given the amount of money holding by mentioned broker-dealers ( Fidelity, Charles Schwab, Edward Jones, Ameriprise Financial, TD Ameritrade ) we talk about 10+ trillion $ which in case of ETF approval can easily enter in the crypto market. It makes sense that minumum investment is "only" 25 BTC.

In my humble opinion and having seen how it was in the past, I would say they have some chance, but I do not have great expectations of them being accepted. regulators seem to always make difficult when it comes to bitcoin

SEC is especially cautious when it comes to such decisions, in case of some problems, they are responsible. BTC is still have many problems these days, so they must be 100% sure everything will work in the best way.

Some calculations say that hundreds of billions $ could enter in crypto market and push price even over 40 000$. Thus at first it seems to ETF would be really big thing for BTC regarding ease of investing.

You have a source for that?

Source of that speculation is in article I posted in OP.

If ETFs add 24 million US investors and the upward momentum adds 14 million from the rest of the world, then that adds $84 billion and $336 billion, respectively, to the market cap. Over the past six months, Bitcoin’s market cap has swung from $326 to $110 billion.

[Rapidgator]

I think saying "anyone" is a bit misleading. Correct me if im wrong, but you are going to need to invest 25 BTC minimum with this ETF, so it's not designed for the average joe, only for people that are probably millionaires already. Of course, this doesn't change the very bullish news, since the % of millionaires are the % that owns most of the wealth anyway.

I recently made a thread analyzing the price of Gold before the ETF and after the ETF, and how it looks exactly as Bitcoin does now right before the ETF, which would coincide and confirm the triple bottom scenario as the definitive bottom before the next big pump.

Okay, I can agree that average Joe won't have an option to invest into that type of ETF but.. what might be interesting is how this can change cryptocurrencies in case of an asset class, so then average people would enter the market through their fiat money into regular crypto exchanges and than crypto space.

[dewildance]

There is an expectation that the ETF will be approved. But this is not certain. Be careful and take your position.

[BTCLovingDude]

to be honest i don't really think that ETF on its own can do anything to bitcoin price apart from a small and slow increase in adoption so  the small increase of in-flow of money and as a result a slow and small increase in price.

but in reality ETF is such a hyped up event which can act as an ignition to the marke so that it can shoot the price up. in this case we can even see $10k be broken in less than a month or two.