MTGOX recovery imminent!

[rograz]

Clearly the current situation for GOX is the biggest threat they've ever experienced.

Until someone can find proof that Gox actually lost a substantial amount of BTC in this whole debacle I personally see the 2011 database intrusion as more severe for their customers tbh. The biggest hit by far they have taken as a business was the loss of access to the US banking system, that in the end is more likely to kill them than the current state of affairs.

The amount of bs fud based on nothing but paranoid speculation that has been spread during the last week is astonishing, but it makes for fun reading. But hopefully Gox starts descending into obscurity after all of this has been cleared, Gox crashing the price every 3-4 months due to their problems is getting quite old.

[YipYip]

Clearly the current situation for GOX is the biggest threat they've ever experienced, the primary problem being massive loss of trust.  However, under the circumstances, there is a very simple way for them to quickly reestablish trust and hasten their full recovery.  All they need to do is:

Ensure (via low withdrawal limits) that a "run" on mtgox cannot quickly occur.  The moment people realize they can successfully withdraw even a small amount from GOX and sell at a higher price somewhere else (arbitrage), GOX will see healthy deposits, their price will quickly rebound and all will be as it was.  MTGOX returns again.  Not a surprise. They've done it before.


I'll send BTCitcoin to anyone who can provide clear reason this isn't possible.

Trust can not be reestablished that way!
If they want trust they should let everyone withdraw everything they want from them!
And that would be loosing like 400k customers or more!

And Mark wants his frappuccino hot! How can he buy more frappuccino if he gives all his money to mtgox members?

1 They are not MtGox members..they are customers
2 Its not his fucking money to give in the first place..its your money ralph
3 GOX==BFL

[sentriclecub]

Clearly the current situation for GOX is the biggest threat they've ever experienced.

Until someone can find proof that Gox actually lost a substantial amount of BTC in this whole debacle I personally see the 2011 database intrusion as more severe for their customers tbh. The biggest hit by far they have taken as a business was the loss of access to the US banking system, that in the end is more likely to kill them than the current state of affairs.

The amount of bs fud based on nothing but paranoid speculation that has been spread during the last week is astonishing, but it makes for fun reading. But hopefully Gox starts descending into obscurity after all of this has been cleared, Gox crashing the price every 3-4 months due to their problems is getting quite old.

Why are you asking us to prove a negative? Haven't you heard before that "money taks, b*llshit walks?"

The markets have spoken. Mt. Gox funds are selling at a significant anti-premium. Also, anytime a company announces these 3 bombshell words "we are temporarily limiting withdrawals" those are the most alarming glaring admission of illiquidity.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis

If you want to disagree with EMH, and agree with mtgox's PR-approved choice of carefully crafted words, then I've got some magic beansprouts for sale. PM me for the sales pitch & how to send payment.

[the joint]

I gave you a good reason why it's impossible.  Gox is reported to owe as many as 68,000 BTC, and your proposed solution does nothing to erase that debt.  You can't just set a withdrawal limit when a withdrawal of any amount is already owed to someone else.  What Gox needs is a solution to pull them out of debt, not just to get people who will never be able to withdraw their deposit trading again.

Thanks Mr.TheJoint
I think you are making some false assumptions here.  Seems GOX has a pretty high level of operational latitude here.  Going on the stated circumstances... So at some point they determined that there was a problem that required them to hault withdrawals.  Reportedly there are withdrawal orders that were placed at this time that have not yet been fulfilled.  Seems right. Sure. I would expect as much.

So they're basically just late on fullfilling those. Under the claimed circumstances I don't know that has any other impact or implications on the situation legal or otherwise.  I think they have the right to take the time they need to solve the problem without additional cost to them.  Don't they?  So:
- it's possible they will actually fulfill said withdrawals first prior to newer withdrawal orders.
- it also seems possible that, under the circumstances they could void withdrawal orders that occurred at that time, claiming that they were part of the problem, and under newly set withdrawal limits, ask those people to kindly reorder their withdrawals.

Either way, I'm not sure why any of that would make my originally posted theory impossible. My scenario could still play out.

What's my false assumption?  The 68,000 BTC owed to customers was a figure put out by media outlets.

What do you mean this doesn't have an impact?  This is the primary reason that withdrawals are halted.  Gox didn't halt withdrawals because they have a "right" to do so, but rather because playing catch-up is, at present, an impossibility.

Your proposal is impossible (well, absurdly unrealistic) because you're making the false assumption that trading will accelerate when withdrawals come back online, but you're not accounting for the fact that withdrawals can't resume if there is nothing to withdraw, and Gox won't see either increased deposits or accelerated trading if people know that nothing comes out the other side.

Edit: When you're ready, I've got my BTC address waiting.

[mp420]

I believe the 68kBTC figure to be in the right ballpark. They also owe their customers a few dozen million USD worth of fiat.

There is absolutely no evidence that they'd have lost more than the seized fiat ($11 million) and a few kBTC. They have easily made enough profit over the years to cover those losses, even accounting for their personnel, legal and misc. costs.

[hobbes]

I believe the 68kBTC figure to be in the right ballpark. They also owe their customers a few dozen million USD worth of fiat.

There is absolutely no evidence that they'd have lost more than the seized fiat ($11 million) and a few kBTC. They have easily made enough profit over the years to cover those losses, even accounting for their personnel, legal and misc. costs.

68k BTC should be peanuts for Gox: http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1y2qg8/mtgox_has_taken_275081_btc_and_17734275_usd_in/

[rograz]

Why are you asking us to prove a negative?

Unsubstantiated bullshit is just that, bullshit until proven otherwise.

Also, anytime a company announces these 3 bombshell words "we are temporarily limiting withdrawals" those are the most alarming glaring admission of illiquidity.

Yes they should just have left withdraws wide open to be exploited rather than fixing their broken shit, gotcha!

Their error was to not disable them sooner and when they finally DO disable them after weeks of issues and people complaining, everyone panics and declares the sky is falling

[sentriclecub]

Why are you asking us to prove a negative?

Unsubstantiated bullshit is just that, bullshit until proven otherwise.

Also, anytime a company announces these 3 bombshell words "we are temporarily limiting withdrawals" those are the most alarming glaring admission of illiquidity.

Yes they should just have left withdraws wide open to be exploited rather than fixing their broken shit, gotcha!

Their error was to not disable them sooner and when they finally DO disable them after weeks of issues and people complaining, everyone panics and declares the sky is falling

I meant the precise wording--not the message itself. Whenever a company such as mtgox hires a pr firm to craft their official statement (when the pr firm has far less technical knowledge than a average bittalk user) it means they're doing damage control & trying to not trigger a panic, which that youtube video should have worried the ever ilving s**t out of anyone with life-changing btc deposited into their control.

I read the whole pirateat40 thread from page 1 to infinite. I myself have ran up free deposits up to large dollar amounts on probably 30-50 poker sites. Official spokesmen and official statements are always way more meticulously crafted if the seriousness of the problem is vast. Hope that clarifies what I could have articulated more clearly the first time.

[theshoemaker]

Hey look!  My theory is already beginning.  ...Even BTCEFORE withrawals have become active again:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1yh9mr/are_your_usds_stuck_on_mtgox_congratulations/

 

[Nagle]

I wonder who's buying all those "GoxBTCs", and how they intend to collect. Since what they're doing is buying bad debt, it's likely that some buyers are collection agencies or law firms, confident that they can force Mt. Gox to pay up. Collection agencies routinely buy up bad debts of companies. The companies then get very unpleasant visits from lawyers, goons, and cops until they pay up.

[Amitabh S]

maybe gox themselves are buying gox btc..

[Hen0xyd]

I wonder who's buying all those "GoxBTCs", and how they intend to collect. Since what they're doing is buying bad debt, it's likely that some buyers are collection agencies or law firms, confident that they can force Mt. Gox to pay up. Collection agencies routinely buy up bad debts of companies. The companies then get very unpleasant visits from lawyers, goons, and cops until they pay up.

I think most of us are wondering who is selling BTC <100e a coin....
It's kinda risky to buy cause indeed there's a chance you never see them again, but balance this with the fact you'd be selling them on any other marketplace x4, x5.
Also you need to note BTC withdrawals are halted, but arent $ or € not close to "locked inside Gox" too ? And probably not getting them back as well as your coins if MtGox dies.

As long as i'm maybe not having fiat nor BTC if Gox dies, I'd prefer collect cheap coin i could possibly sell higher later if/when BTC gates will open. Thats why lots of people are cancelling withdrawals (which are sooo long to get if you get them).

imo buyers are : people expecting Gox wont die (not in current months), people balancing risk of collapsing and selling cheap coin anywhere else ( and MtGox itself ?...)

So I'd like to know who you think is selling coins they all obviosly bought more than 100$/btc and loosing money (commited).
I'm very interested in know your point of view about this, but my guess is selling people are : investissors who are ok losing half money they put in btc but not losing all, people who are not losing money even @100e/btc (thiefs, silkroad guys etc.), scared people because of all the FUD everywhere plus large guys selling lots of BTC to make price fall a lot and create this panic to buy more goxBTC.

[Taxidermista]

MTGOX recovery imminent!

Poor thing, mommy and daddy did not give you enough attention?

[ft73]

However, under the circumstances, there is a very simple way for them to quickly reestablish trust and hasten their full recovery.

No. Simply, fully, completely, no. Gox has been circling the drain for the past year, as anyone paying the slightest attention has long since noticed. No amount of taping things together, no quantities of gift-wrap, no battery-operated gimmicks, and no presumptuously worded apology will ever have the slightest chance of "recovering", because there's nothing there to recover. Incompetence is incompetence, and MtGox' has been amply demonstrated. There's no way around it.

Sure, but a new CEO would suffice to reestablish trust.