Lately I've been checking out prediction markets like Bets of Bitcoin and BTfuture. While they are a great start, what if some day they become unavailable like Moonco.in? I think one possible direction this could go is to further decentralize prediction markets. So far I've got two ideas:
1) Many compatible markets, so bettors can spread out the same bet over multiple bookies. For example, an open-source prediction market like bitpredict
would spawn many identical sites. Skilled traders or an automated script could place 1/100th of a bet with 100 bookies, thus averaging out the risk of loss. Right now every market operates differently so spreading out bets can be inconvenient.
2) Offline signed transactions
could be distributed by bookies to trusted agents. For example, a bookie could manage a bet with three outcomes (yes, no, cancel) so he creates three signed transactions and sends them to his friend. If the bookie becomes unavailable to resolve the bet, this agent would broadcast the winning transaction. This is preferable to sharing private keys because it has a smaller risk of theft.
What I'm hoping for is a long-term solution for prediction markets that isn't vulnerable to the loss of one person or organization. Large webs of trust could even enable a market on a single event to have hundreds of bookies, each with multiple agents who can settle their small percentage.