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Author Topic: What I'd do now  (Read 3815 times)
r4in
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October 07, 2011, 06:39:35 PM
 #1

Look at the 2 moving averages (28 EMA, 7 EMA) in this chart:



Source Address: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg150ztgSza1gEMAzm1g28za2gEMAzm2g7 (<- This is updated automatically so it can easily be followed)

When the faster moving average (purple) crosses the slower EMA (brown) from below this indicates an uptrend in technical trading (and vice versa). As you can see in the chart, we have been in a very active downtrend (purple < brown) for more than 4 month now, which has not been broken a single time.

In order to prevent losing more money I personally sold all my BTC at 5 USD and now wait until the market reverses (purple line > brown line). At the moment we are in a very depressive phase which started after the burst of the bubble. Fundamentally, nothing has changed for bitcoin, so there is no reason that It cannot go to old highs again. Since people are depressed now the time to get back in should come soon.

What do you think about this approach? Its a standard trend following strategy from stock trading and since bitcoin has been highly trending so far I think it should become useful in this situation.
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grod
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October 07, 2011, 06:47:04 PM
 #2

Welcome to discovering the winning strategy many months after it was profitable.  It was starting to look like the uptrend was broken at $24.  That's where I started selling and haven't stopped since.

If you're a risk taker then you can make about 15% by buying the coins you sold at $5 back for $4.3.  It would not be a bad trading strategy to buy a small amount of them back at this price, and "dollar average" down.  Every spike, be it down or up, has a bounce the other way.  Be ready to sell into those mini rallies, don't get caught up in "panic buying."

Learning to bottom fish is a very valuable skill, and you're not risking a lot of $. I say try it.
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October 07, 2011, 06:51:48 PM
 #3

What I find interesting is the correlation between the timing of the dips and the recent security breaches of exchanges that occurred prior to the dips.

Perhaps pure coincidence, however the "liquidating of the found Bitcoins" could of played a role.
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October 07, 2011, 06:53:51 PM
 #4

What I find interesting is the correlation between the timing of the dips and the recent security breaches of exchanges that occurred prior do aid dips.

Perhaps pure coincidence, however the "liquidating of the found Bitcoins" could of played a role.

pretty sure it is related.. same thing happened around the mybitcoin event..

r4in
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October 07, 2011, 06:56:03 PM
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What I find interesting is the correlation between the timing of the dips and the recent security breaches of exchanges that occurred prior do aid dips.

Perhaps pure coincidence, however the "liquidating of the found Bitcoins" could of played a role.

pretty sure it is related.. same thing happened around the mybitcoin event..


I believe that this is not an issue here.

I believe the fundamental issue with investing in general is that people just tend to focus on the rear-view mirror.

When they see nothing but losses they decide that the considered market is a terrible place to be and leave/sell. When depression is at its peak, its time to get back on the train - a skill that needs the investor to emotionally detach himself from the public opinion - a very rare skill and the reason why 95% of all traders fail.

A way to mechanically do this was described above. Ofc its pure speculation but maybe better than just sitting it out. Time will tell Wink
322i0n
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October 07, 2011, 06:58:18 PM
 #6

and the exchanges are live and trading, preparing for the next catastrophe.

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October 07, 2011, 08:58:09 PM
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So what your saying is that btc will pretty much never rise back up above 7-8 for a very long time?
r4in
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October 07, 2011, 09:16:57 PM
 #8

So what your saying is that btc will pretty much never rise back up above 7-8 for a very long time?

No, not at all. I am saying that I would use the trend following method described in first post as a trend indicator. As long as the purple line is lower than the brown line the downtrend is still active. The idea is to avoid losing money by selling BTC now and getting back on board when the trend has changed (purple line > brown line). The trend has only changed a single time so far.... which means that btc has so far been a highly trending currency. This fact can be exploited by conducting a trend following strategy like the one I suggested.
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October 07, 2011, 09:21:24 PM
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the moving averages are set at 28 and 7, what do those numbers mean/signify/indicate?

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October 07, 2011, 09:25:40 PM
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the moving averages are set at 28 and 7, what do those numbers mean/signify/indicate?

A one-week and a four-week period? Honestly the concept is sound regardless of the resolution. If we were talking about day-trading we might be looking at 10 minute and 40 minute averages, it's just about how fast/often you want to trade.

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October 07, 2011, 09:31:15 PM
 #11

While speculation makes major turnover, bitcoin price will fall.

I think new wave of popularity is coming, which will inflate this bubble again.
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October 07, 2011, 10:12:11 PM
 #12

The time will come soon when it's smart to jump back in. I wasn't quite sure about the 4.18 low when it came, thought that it is possible we'll go lower. Now I see that many others thought the same, regardless of an apparent change in market mood.

But as for the new low, whatever it ends up being, it will in my book very likely be the real bottom for this crash. And I think a lot of people will agree with that, which will likely result in the trend changing.

Personally I'm already looking to buy at 3.x and possibly higher than that if we see a strong recovery.


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r4in
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October 07, 2011, 10:42:30 PM
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The time will come soon when it's smart to jump back in. ...

Correct. And this thread is exactly about numerically expressing when :-)
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October 08, 2011, 05:30:12 PM
 #14

'BUY BUY BUY" or "SELL SELL SELL" ?

http://i.imgur.com/3xMUf.jpg

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grod
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October 08, 2011, 05:33:50 PM
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Personally I'm already looking to buy at 3.x and possibly higher than that if we see a strong recovery.



It's at 3.x.  How much have you bought?
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October 08, 2011, 05:34:30 PM
 #16

'BUY BUY BUY" or "SELL SELL SELL" ?

http://i.imgur.com/3xMUf.jpg
If this screen of yours is genuine, then by all means, do SELL SELL SELL.

Get out, and stay out. Weak hands are not needed. Grin

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wobber
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October 08, 2011, 05:47:11 PM
 #17

Until this month I sold just about 100 coins. I wish I would have sold at 32, 24 or even 10. So far I set up a small bidwall, at 4.01 to have some gain from bitcoins if this goes really down.

LE: 3.98 Smiley

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October 08, 2011, 05:55:33 PM
 #18

I’ll just assume you’re not a troll.

Seriously, just dump all your coins if you have no trust in Bitcoin. The problem is exactly that people like you haven’t capitulated yet.

Want Bitcoin to recover? Dump your coins. Want free money from the mining? Dump your coins.

And please don’t buy them back until you have faith in Bitcoins. Thank you.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
wobber
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October 08, 2011, 05:58:36 PM
 #19

I’ll just assume you’re not a troll.

Seriously, just dump all your coins if you have no trust in Bitcoin. The problem is exactly that people like you haven’t capitulated yet.

Want Bitcoin to recover? Dump your coins. Want free money from the mining? Dump your coins.

And please don’t buy them back until you have faith in Bitcoins. Thank you.

I have faith in bitcoins. As freedom currency. Price matters less. Not least, less. I, like many others, was too bullish to see that it can go down. Actually I was hoping someone else would dump 50,000 in an older post. I know that it could be beneficial.

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r4in
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October 08, 2011, 06:34:04 PM
 #20

I have faith in bitcoins. As freedom currency. Price matters less. Not least, less. I, like many others, was too bullish to see that it can go down. Actually I was hoping someone else would dump 50,000 in an older post. I know that it could be beneficial.

Under the assumption that your screenshot is genuine, I would seriously consider pulling the plug (= Selling) now ;-)

Why? Well did you ever consider that Mt. Gox is most likely virtually out of reach for the legal system in your country? Should gox get hacked again, or just decide to refuse to pay you back, or whatever you'll pretty much end up with nothing.

This is by far the biggest threat to your account balance. Not daily bitcoin price fluctuations :-) However this large balance ofc enables you to abuse the system and make "free money" by manipulation Wink Its like sitting on a poker table where you are the chipleader... Tongue
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