bitcon (OP)
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February 18, 2014, 03:34:33 AM |
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when GOx finally enables withdrawals will we see a rally or crash. gox will supposedly be limiting withdrawals so maybe there wont be enough coins being moved to influence the market very much
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GeniuSxBoY
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February 18, 2014, 03:41:11 AM |
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Super rally. $150 above whatever the other markets are trading at right now.
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Be humble!
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dave111223
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February 18, 2014, 03:45:26 AM |
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Gox will basically go to da moon as everyone rushes for the door.
If people are currently willing to sell at a 50% discount just for the off chance that they might be able to get a fiat withdrawal sometime in the next few months...then i'd guess they'd be willing to pay at least $1200-$1500 per BTC to get their money out immediately.
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derpinheimer
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February 18, 2014, 03:55:29 AM |
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On Gox: Mega-Rally, like at least $550, dip, then to da moon!
Other exchanges: Mini-rally, then mini-crash.
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bitcon (OP)
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February 18, 2014, 04:15:07 AM |
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i can see the price rallying on gox - it has nowhere to go but up and new fiat is trying to get in. but with the other exchanges seeing an influx of coins from gox for people arbing, seems like the prices on those esxchanges will be stable or going lower. goxes withdrawal limit will probably keep things a little more stable. whenever i try to predict something it usually does the opposite, so idk
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dave111223
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February 18, 2014, 04:31:51 AM |
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...and new fiat is trying to get in...
Yeah right  |
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bitcon (OP)
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February 18, 2014, 05:28:13 AM |
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...and new fiat is trying to get in...
Yeah right cant. tell. if sarcastic.... |
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sgbett
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February 18, 2014, 04:30:30 PM |
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All exchanges to about $400. Then slow grind down for a while.
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"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto*my posts are not investment advice*
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Elwar
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Viva Ut Vivas
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February 18, 2014, 04:43:32 PM |
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Gox price to the moon.
All other exchanges move a few dollars up before returning to business as usual.
Gox shuts down soon thereafter.
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First seastead company actually selling sea homes: Ocean Builders https://ocean.builders Of course we accept bitcoin. |
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Obi-Wan Coinobi
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February 18, 2014, 04:50:29 PM |
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Anyone who pumps more money into GOX is an idiot. It's not even a matter of taking a chance...it's just dumb.
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theonewhowaskazu
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February 18, 2014, 04:57:19 PM |
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I predict a rally, then sorta-crash (but crash to much higher than it is now, so it doesn't really count).
Like this:
Step 1: People will cancel both buy and sell orders going into the announcement, because they're not sure of what will be happening on the announcement.
Step 2: The moment withdraws will be open all the fiat on the exchange will be chasing a decreasing amount of BTC as the withdraws complete, on a thin orderbook.
Step 3: The price will rocket hugely.
Step 4: Suddenly the withdraw limit will be reached.
Step 5: People realize that they will have to wait some time for BTC withdraws as well as fiat withdraws, because the withdraw limit was reached, so the price will crash down to the price of other exchanges, or just above them.
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DooMAD
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Leave no FUD unchallenged
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February 18, 2014, 05:06:44 PM |
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Don't really care what happens to the price in the short term, as long as everyone has the sense to take their money out of gox while they can. The price will come back stronger than ever once gox is dead and buried.
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Chainsaw
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February 18, 2014, 05:09:34 PM |
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1. New buying pressure on Gox - people wanting to buy BTC and withdraw.
2. New selling pressure on other exchanges. Goxers convert to BTC, then go to other exchanges to return to their fiat/BTC balance of comfort, which cannot be more than 100% BTC/0% fiat, so an increase in sales on other exchanges.
The limiting resource here is not assets on Gox, but rather than balance between the premium paid to buy a BTC on Gox compared to buying it on another exchange. When the switch is flipped, this formula will be inverted.
Gox price will again exceed the price on other exchanges, until that premium reflects the perceived market risk of Mt. Gox insolvency.
Would I buy a GoxBTC for $500 to sell it on another exchange for $800? Everyone would.
Would I buy a GoxBTC for $500 to sell it on another exchange for $500? Most would.
Would I buy a GoxBTC for $500 to sell it on another exchange for $300? Some would. (If you thought the risk of insolvency was ~40% or greater.)
The feedback loop should be self-correcting. The market should find an equilibrium below the current non-Gox market price of $650, but not dramatically.
I plan to wait until that equilibrium is well-established (the Gox premium is not getting larger), then convert most BTC out of Gox, and sell some for a premium while beginning the fiat withdrawal process, complete with the 5% extortion expedition premium.
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Edward50
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February 18, 2014, 05:11:30 PM |
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All exchanges to about $400. Then slow grind down for a while.
Why don't you give a reason for this, or are you just being sarcastic and giving bears a bad name? |
Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless — like water. Now you put water in a cup, it becomes the cup; You put water into a bottle it becomes the bottle; You put it in a teapot it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.
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Obi-Wan Coinobi
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February 18, 2014, 05:20:07 PM |
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All exchanges to about $400. Then slow grind down for a while.
Why don't you give a reason for this, or are you just being sarcastic and giving bears a bad name? I agree with him except I think it will come back up from $400-450 sooner than later. People will withdrawal their coins (from GOX) and the other exchanges will get a surplus driving the price down. Basically, there are a bunch of bitcoins tied up and they are going to be released soon. Basic supply/demand would mean the price will go down a bit. Maybe I'm wrong? Take me to school! |
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Torque
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February 18, 2014, 05:33:17 PM |
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OP, I don't see an option in your poll for "And not a single f*ck was given about Mt. Gox".
Also, a Goxcoin is not a bitcoin. It's an "IOU" for a bitcoin. BIG difference.
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GeniuSxBoY
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February 18, 2014, 05:39:41 PM |
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Anyone who pumps more money into GOX is an idiot. It's not even a matter of taking a chance...it's just dumb.
They are the longest running exchange. They've always fixed issues and come back online. Putting your money in gox is just as risky putting your money in all the other exchanges. |
Be humble!
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Rygon
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February 18, 2014, 05:46:36 PM |
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Mt. Gox still hasn't fixed the fiat withdrawal problem from last June, lol. If they enable deposits, there will either be daily limits, or a surcharge applied in order to stem the flow out of the exchange. They could very well be insolvent, considering they've lost significant amounts of both fiat and bitcoin in the past year.
I think there will be a mini-crash as some people get out their coins and speculators overestimate the amount of coins leaving. Then there will be a rally when everyone realizes that the coins left on gox most likely don't exist, and that the market was oversold.
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Peter R
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February 18, 2014, 05:47:59 PM |
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My wild guess:
Rally on Gox. Correlated rally on the other exchanges until arbitrage coins get dumped leading to another flash crash that briefly touches the $4xx's on BitStamp. This will mark the bottom.
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BitchicksHusband
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February 18, 2014, 06:03:22 PM |
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Anyone who pumps more money into GOX is an idiot. It's not even a matter of taking a chance...it's just dumb.
They are the longest running exchange. They've always fixed issues and come back online. Putting your money in gox is just as risky putting your money in all the other exchanges. The people running Gox are demonstrably shady. The same cannot be said for the other exchanges. |
1BitcHiCK1iRa6YVY6qDqC6M594RBYLNPo
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Poll
