Bitcoin ETF Decision on the 16th of August ?

[meerkatoken]

Dear all,

I would like to hear your theories on the potential effect of this expected SEC decision that can potentially allow official BTC ETFs.

Some say a decision can happen as early as 10th of august but some lawyers say that is impossible simply becuse of the leght of such proccess and they expect to happen on the 16th or even later.

Anyway most of the community is expecting an immediate bullrun if the decision is positive. Some say that the currenty price action is also happening because investors alredy in the field are occumulating as much BTC as they can by selling their lats, so they will be prepared for the envisioned bullrun.

And here is my concern. If the community is preparing for this only to sell BTC at a peak, then the price action can be much worse for the community as we expect.

Please share your vision!

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[meerkatoken]

Just in case someone missed the article:

https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-etf-decision-gets-an-overwhelming-amount-of-public-opinion/

[avikz]

Dear all,

I would like to hear your theories on the potential effect of this expected SEC decision that can potentially allow official BTC ETFs.

Some say a decision can happen as early as 10th of august but some lawyers say that is impossible simply becuse of the leght of such proccess and they expect to happen on the 16th or even later.

Anyway most of the community is expecting an immediate bullrun if the decision is positive. Some say that the currenty price action is also happening because investors alredy in the field are occumulating as much BTC as they can by selling their lats, so they will be prepared for the envisioned bullrun.

And here is my concern. If the community is preparing for this only to sell BTC at a peak, then the price action can be much worse for the community as we expect.

Please share your vision!

If SEC decides to finally allow bitcoin ETF, we will see a bull run for sure. But this bull run will happen on the legality ground and not on the investment ground. Let me explain more clearly,

If SEC allows bitcoin ETF, then the crypto market in USA will take another step higher in the legal ground. That will increase the acceptability of bitcoin and send a positive cheer to the market. Many people who have restricted themselves from investing in bitcoin because of the confusing legal status, will start exploring options to invest in it now. The overall credibility and acceptability will increase which can support the current price in its future endeavors. However, we will miss one crucial thing.

ETF are designed to be based on the price of the underlying asset without actually investing in that underlying asset. So ETF companies will not invest in real bitcoin, instead they will keep the fund locked within their bank account and play according to the price fluctuation. So no fresh funds will flow into bitcoin market due to the ETF. So the blame of speculative bubble will grow stronger on bitcoin. ETF can't really help the market in any financial way apart from the psychological factors.

[meerkatoken]

Dear all,

I would like to hear your theories on the potential effect of this expected SEC decision that can potentially allow official BTC ETFs.

Some say a decision can happen as early as 10th of august but some lawyers say that is impossible simply becuse of the leght of such proccess and they expect to happen on the 16th or even later.

Anyway most of the community is expecting an immediate bullrun if the decision is positive. Some say that the currenty price action is also happening because investors alredy in the field are occumulating as much BTC as they can by selling their lats, so they will be prepared for the envisioned bullrun.

And here is my concern. If the community is preparing for this only to sell BTC at a peak, then the price action can be much worse for the community as we expect.

Please share your vision!

If SEC decides to finally allow bitcoin ETF, we will see a bull run for sure. But this bull run will happen on the legality ground and not on the investment ground. Let me explain more clearly,

If SEC allows bitcoin ETF, then the crypto market in USA will take another step higher in the legal ground. That will increase the acceptability of bitcoin and send a positive cheer to the market. Many people who have restricted themselves from investing in bitcoin because of the confusing legal status, will start exploring options to invest in it now. The overall credibility and acceptability will increase which can support the current price in its future endeavors. However, we will miss one crucial thing.

ETF are designed to be based on the price of the underlying asset without actually investing in that underlying asset. So ETF companies will not invest in real bitcoin, instead they will keep the fund locked within their bank account and play according to the price fluctuation. So no fresh funds will flow into bitcoin market due to the ETF. So the blame of speculative bubble will grow stronger on bitcoin. ETF can't really help the market in any financial way apart from the psychological factors.

Thank you for the detailed explanation. I totally aggree with you however I am a bit confused right now. I thought ETF is one of the few instruments where investors actually have to buy the underlying asset. I mean without them buying actual BTC the whole bull rull is pointless I think. Correct me if am wrong but I do believe that they actually have to buy the asset. Otherwise this whole issue would not be a big deal with the SEC I think.

[meerkatoken]

As i understand 1 ETF share equals 25 BTC with some basic insurance.

Since the last time the ETFs got rejected, SEC officially declared BTC not being a security.

I think this is a major difference.

But if you're right that it ETFs are not actual buys, then this short term bullrun can fade away. 

[poptok1]

...short term bullrun can fade away. 

Such possibility always exists, no need to be sad, it's all speculative in nature and one can not have any real influence.
What matters is, that's yet another way for legitimization of bitcoins in general public eyes.
Sure, more bubble like spikes may happen, soon after some (even severe) dispersion but all in all awareness along with confidence for cryptocurrency will get boosted. I think it may prove to be quite good in the long run, when all the craze will come to an end.

However there is a huge "but" in my opinion, the ICO's. Wonder what is the correlation and how SEC will recognize those?

[meerkatoken]

A bull run certainly seems to be the likely scenario, I am wondering whether or not a decision can legally be made before August 16. I believe these deadlines are set for a reason but I also believe they can be changed. The futures market is certainly hinging on the decision, and I am sure the market-at-large is as well, especially from an institutional level.

Excatly. Personally I doubt that anywhere around the 16th will this happen. If the community starts to believe it then the institutional side will postpone it for sure. I think it is more likely by mid september.

[meerkatoken]

...short term bullrun can fade away. 

Such possibility always exists, no need to be sad, it's all speculative in nature and one can not have any real influence.
What matters is, that's yet another way for legitimization of bitcoins in general public eyes.
Sure, more bubble like spikes may happen, soon after some (even severe) dispersion but all in all awareness along with confidence for cryptocurrency will get boosted. I think it may prove to be quite good in the long run, when all the craze will come to an end.

However there is a huge "but" in my opinion, the ICO's. Wonder what is the correlation and how SEC will recognize those?

Very positive comment man thanks I feel the same actually.

Regarding ICOs am afraid those will be considered as securities. Basically every ICO is ETH based. So when you gather ETH for some future project development, in favour of a higher price that is exactly what a security is. I dont see any way around it. Only if an ICO technically and financially prooves to be a utility token. As soon as you can use the token for anything else other than trading, it becomes a physical value. If you can pay with it in a store, thats not a security anymore. At least my opinion.

[1Referee]

As i understand 1 ETF share equals 25 BTC with some basic insurance.

The entry point is based on cash, which means that the higher the price goes up, the value one ETF share accounts for in Bitcoin goes down.

$200,000 in fiat right now buys you 25BTC at a rate of $8000 a pop. $200,000 in fiat buys you 20BTC at a rate of $10,000 a pop, and so forth.

Since the last time the ETFs got rejected, SEC officially declared BTC not being a security.

I think this is a major difference.

It's not really a difference. The SEC knows beforehand what Bitcoin is. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand that Bitcoin doesn't fit in the category of securities.

Ethereum & Co however require firm investigation with how they are set up and will continue to evolve. In my opinion Ethereum is a security based on how it got distributed, but the SEC pretty much ignores that and looks at what it is today. I'm glad already that the shitty ICO's on Ethereum are securities and will take some legal action in order to set one up within the states.

[meerkatoken]

The entry point is based on cash, which means that the higher the price goes up, the value one ETF share accounts for in Bitcoin goes down.

$200,000 in fiat right now buys you 25BTC at a rate of $8000 a pop. $200,000 in fiat buys you 20BTC at a rate of $10,000 a pop, and so forth.

I see. So investors actually buy BTC am I right ? Also what is your opinion on utility tokens ? Should those be considered as securities as well ? I mean it is hard to decide. For example I know a project where a plantation company actually plant 1 tree for a token. Each tree has a QR code and so on. I dont think thats a security because you cant really determine the value of a tree... 

[CheatingCoins]

I see. Now that makes sense. I was thinking where this all this bullish run came from it might be quite related to this.

Thank you for posting article as well as I actually missed this information.

If it's based on the current article we as well might expect at least another 10 days of bullish run.

"“We’re one positive regulatory decision away — maybe an ETF approved by the SEC — to climb through $20,000 and even to $50,000 by the end of the year,” the Bitmex CEO states."

Hahah quite positive thought on this one, but yeah he is CEO of Bitmex but I do consider that news like these have huge influence on price.

[meerkatoken]

I see. Now that makes sense. I was thinking where this all this bullish run came from it might be quite related to this.

Thank you for posting article as well as I actually missed this information.

If it's based on the current article we as well might expect at least another 10 days of bullish run.

"“We’re one positive regulatory decision away — maybe an ETF approved by the SEC — to climb through $20,000 and even to $50,000 by the end of the year,” the Bitmex CEO states."

Hahah quite positive thought on this one, but yeah he is CEO of Bitmex but I do consider that news like these have huge influence on price.

You are welcome bro  

Actually I do have to mention that some "experts" believe that it is not likely that ETFs will be approved.
At least not now but maybe later towards the end of the year.

Also there are recent articles out there, stating that some SEC insider informator leaked that the SEC will in fact approve ETFs.

Again this can be totally fake news ! So be careful if youre heavily invested.  

[1Referee]

I see. So investors actually buy BTC am I right ?

No. Investors just buy the share with cash. What happens in the background is that exchanges taking care of the custodian aspect will make sure that they have enough Bitcoins in their reserve to back up each share 1:1 based on the latest coin>fiat ratio.

Also what is your opinion on utility tokens ? Should those be considered as securities as well ? I mean it is hard to decide. For example I know a project where a plantation company actually plant 1 tree for a token. Each tree has a QR code and so on. I dont think thats a security because you cant really determine the value of a tree... 

According to the SEC a security is something where you give one central entity your money, and you get something back that can be sold either directly or indirectly for a higher price. I think that's pretty much what I agree on as well if we talk about securities. I'm not really sure what project you are referring to, but if the tokens are tradable, it is pretty much a security.

If you look at all the tokens circulating, they either trade far above or far below their utility value, so the value of a tree isn't really important here, people's greed is.

[meerkatoken]

I understand thank you for the explanation !

If it turns out that all ICOs will be securities, then it is going to be a sad day for the community. Even if we know that there are more scammers then legits out there, those few who are actually trying to build industry specific utility blockchains, those guys will have a hard time with SEC.

We need more and more blockchain devs but if they get burned by the SEC and they are forced to shut down operations.... that would reduce blockchain adoptation momentum.

[meerkatoken]

IMPORTANT UPDATE !

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has delayed making a decision on whether to approve five bitcoin-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs) until September, public documents reveal on Tuesday. In the latest edition of the Federal Register, the SEC explains that it is postponing any decision over the possible approval of ETF proposals !

https://www.coindesk.com/sec-delays-decision-on-direxions-bitcoin-etfs-until-september/

[USDOLLAR]

Some statistics I am sharing here with a bit of luck may be helpful. The date for a choice may be no sooner than August sixteen. Even then, the date may be prolonged if required and even once the eventual date does arrive the SEC can nonetheless initiate in addition complaints to help in decision making. A huge contingent of avid bitcoin investors and investors obtainable who have been eagerly anticipating this selection.

[meerkatoken]

Some information I am mentioning here hopefully may be helpful. The date for a decision can be no sooner than August 16. Even then, the date can be extended if required and even once the eventual date does arrive the SEC can still initiate further proceedings to assist in decision making. a large contingent of avid bitcoin investors and traders out there who have been eagerly awaiting this decision. On August 16 there is a lot could happen to cryptocurrency spot markets between now and that time for the cryptocurrency market.

The decision is postponed as far as I understand we cannot expect a decision before September.

Check the link in the previous comment.

[darkangel11]

I think the decision will be positive. There are even some "insider leaks" according to which the attitude in the commission is positive and they will most likely approve it. It's about time if you ask me. Futures did fine, there are private investment groups and there are less and less people who claim it to be a ponzi scheme or any other type of scam.

IMPORTANT UPDATE !

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has delayed making a decision on whether to approve five bitcoin-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs) until September, public documents reveal on Tuesday. In the latest edition of the Federal Register, the SEC explains that it is postponing any decision over the possible approval of ETF proposals !

https://www.coindesk.com/sec-delays-decision-on-direxions-bitcoin-etfs-until-september/

Probably want everything to be precise. If they wanted to deny it again they wouldn't need so much time.

[meerkatoken]

I think the decision will be positive. There are even some "insider leaks" according to which the attitude in the commission is positive and they will most likely approve it. It's about time if you ask me. Futures did fine, there are private investment groups and there are less and less people who claim it to be a ponzi scheme or any other type of scam.

IMPORTANT UPDATE !

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has delayed making a decision on whether to approve five bitcoin-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs) until September, public documents reveal on Tuesday. In the latest edition of the Federal Register, the SEC explains that it is postponing any decision over the possible approval of ETF proposals !

https://www.coindesk.com/sec-delays-decision-on-direxions-bitcoin-etfs-until-september/

Probably want everything to be precise. If they wanted to deny it again they wouldn't need so much time.

To be honest I am highly suspicious about these insider leaks... We've seen so many fake news and this is very strange.

Lets you are this insider. Would you tell this to anyone and watch the price going up on the fomo Or you would simply keep this info for yourself and family, and tell them to buy cheap now. You wouldnt ruin the opportunity of your life by talking about this.... Unrealistic to me

[BitHodler]

To be honest I am highly suspicious about these insider leaks... We've seen so many fake news and this is very strange.

Lets you are this insider. Would you tell this to anyone and watch the price going up on the fomo Or you would simply keep this info for yourself and family, and tell them to buy cheap now. You wouldnt ruin the opportunity of your life by talking about this.... Unrealistic to me

I think that most insiders wouldn't even share such valuable information with their family, because the more people know about it, the more likely it is that it will work against you, especially in this case.

Leaking information this sensitive and financially rewarding will definitely make sure that you are playing with your freedom. An opportunity to make money is never worth more than your freedom.

We're talking about the SEC here, and they will definitely make sure that you'll be suffering. Leaking information about bcash as happened with Coinbase is one thing, attempting the same with the government is silly.