My updated view on BTC/USD price movement is here 
I am confident that BTC/USD may never re-visit $5000 level based on long term technical analysis. In fact, I believe that it will stabilize at approximately $7000 and remain above the channel established by the two red lines in the chart shown below. But if BTC/USD does hit $5000 (or even $6000), that means big investors panicked and liquidated their BTC holdings which in turn implies a very bad global recession.
From a fundamental macro economic point of view, there is some chance that USA will enter a prominent economic recession in the next 12 months. During this period, there is a good chance that US government will intervene in the financial markets one way or the other, for example, by buying up stocks, foreign currencies or govt bonds to keep US Dollar cheap compared to other fiat currencies. Due to strong political ambitions in the next presidential race, US govt will cut interest rates, keep US Dollar cheap and fuel an artificial rally in US stocks. This artificial rally should promptly collapse, with initial signs of weakness coming from US trucking and transportation companies, leading to massive asset liquidation. BTC/USD and XAU/USD are well positioned to attract new money as US enters recession. If BTC/USD indeed manages to remain above $7000 price level, it is a very good sign and indicative of a strong rally from that price level.
On a personal note, US entering recession within the next 12 months is good for the International Markets (emerging countries, in particular), although it will weigh on European and Asian economies too. Too many countries (and mega corporations) save their wealth in US Dollars and that will soon change as these entities allocate more to Bitcoin and Gold. It is now a matter of USA losing some of its economic power (i.e. GDP growth rate) to emerging countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS).
Longer term chart showing potentially strong upward trend channel (bottom pair of parallel red lines):
Despite my wishful thinking, BTC/USD can fall back to $5000, that is, hit the bottom red line in the chart shown above. As stated earlier, it will be a bad sign for the developed economies if that happens. When the developed economies are weak, a lot of Crypto Exchanges will shutdown and there won't be new corporate crypto ventures.
