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Author Topic: Long-Term Bulls  (Read 9425 times)
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October 08, 2011, 08:48:00 PM
 #1

I am a Long-Term Bull.

1. Fundamentally, the block chain technology is the first system in existence featuring a technologically enforced, pre-defined monetary policy which cannot be manipulated. After almost 3 years, Bitcoin is still king of the block chains. In the long run, it trumps fiat money because of its decentralized nature. It trumps precious metals because of its digital nature. It’s also near impossible to counterfeit, unlike Gold and cash.

2. Chart: http://i.imgur.com/U8uDh.png
Technically, the divergence in RSI since August continues (no new low in RSI for the second major time, while price again did a new low). Same with the MACD. All this despite huge sell volumes. The bears are losing control just like the bulls did when price got to 30.

3. Sentiment seems almost completely destroyed, judging from recent polls. Everyone is expecting this thing to fully crash.

I have cash – I always turn into a closet bear when things look bad short term to gather more Bitcoins. I will continue snatching up coins. Our kind is almost ready to take over this market.

Why are you a Long-Term Bull?

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
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imsaguy
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October 08, 2011, 08:53:07 PM
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I am a Long-Term Bull.


+1

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October 08, 2011, 09:15:23 PM
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Ah, denial.  From $30 to $4, and there are still suckers in the game.
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October 08, 2011, 09:18:04 PM
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No, from 1$ to 0.5$ to 30$ to 4$. I have made my gains (and took them).

Perhaps you are in denial that Bitcoin might indeed work as a store of value? Perhaps you are in denial that you could be wrong on this one? Downtrend to zero, losing 4$ a month, eh?

Here’s a statistic for you:

All of 2009: practically worthless
Oct. 2010: 0.06$
Oct. 2011: 3.98$

According to you, it will go back to near worthless. Explain why.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
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October 08, 2011, 09:52:37 PM
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Why are you a Long-Term Bull?
  I'm not, I'm agnostic.  It's really the only honest position one can take at the moment, given the public information about bitcoin.
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October 08, 2011, 10:15:54 PM
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Why are you a Long-Term Bull?
I trust in the technology to monetize the web in a decentralized way. There's a lot of services not possible with any other payment system. The currently existing uses of Bitcoin barely scratch the surface of its full potential.

That's one of the reasons why I'm bullish on Bitcoin adoption. The good thing is, that for most applications the price of 1 BTC does not matter much (ie. they work equally well at 0.1 USD per 1 BTC). Therefore I don't care that much about the actual price of Bitcoin (1 BTC is an arbitrary unit after all). In the long term I expect the price of Bitcoin to go up along with larger adoption though.
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October 08, 2011, 10:51:31 PM
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No, from 1$ to 0.5$ to 30$ to 4$. I have made my gains (and took them).

Perhaps you are in denial that Bitcoin might indeed work as a store of value? Perhaps you are in denial that you could be wrong on this one? Downtrend to zero, losing 4$ a month, eh?

Here’s a statistic for you:

All of 2009: practically worthless
Oct. 2010: 0.06$
Oct. 2011: 3.98$

According to you, it will go back to near worthless. Explain why.

BOOM!  Way to drop the reason-bomb!  +1

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October 08, 2011, 10:54:03 PM
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Why are you a Long-Term Bull?

Because Bitcoin is fucking legendary futuristic and Uranus rules my chart hard.  Plus the surrounding mystery of its creator just adds to the appeal for me.  If I were any more insane, I'd refer to it as the second coming of Christ.

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October 08, 2011, 10:57:28 PM
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Well, from what I've read long-term bears compare bitcoins to dutch tulips.
NFI how they arrive at this conclusion as tulips were never intended as a currency and bitcoin is.. I think most of it actually is about their wishful thinking that we get such a situation so they can buy it all up.

Alas they are really hidden long-term bulls.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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October 08, 2011, 11:01:45 PM
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Alas they are really hidden long-term bulls.

Personally I think bitcoin has yet one more bubble ahead and possibly even bigger one then the last time.  But I am not a long term bull - because the electricity cost look completely crazy for me, I am waiting for the next digital currency that will not bear this cost.
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October 08, 2011, 11:08:46 PM
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Alas they are really hidden long-term bulls.

It's a certainty that EVERYBODY, even the investors that bought at $14 think and want the price to be lower in order to buy more. But if it drops too low, can it recover? What if we're committing suicide? On the other had, if price sparks up to 4.7 MANY will sell, wanting to buyback at 3

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October 08, 2011, 11:18:38 PM
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Alas they are really hidden long-term bulls.

It's a certainty that EVERYBODY, even the investors that bought at $14 think and want the price to be lower in order to buy more. But if it drops too low, can it recover? What if we're committing suicide? On the other had, if price sparks up to 4.7 MANY will sell, wanting to buyback at 3
Well it's a confidence game, and as long as there are early adopters willing to sell this can continue. But not till we are at the accumulative cost of all bitcoin currently in existence. I admit this figure is quite low but once we get near it there is no rational explanation for it to go lower and the figure increases every day.

My point is: Somebody has to own these bitcoins, even at the point of accumulative cost. There are only 2 choices either attribute some value to them or destroy them. The latter makes no sense, at least none I can think of.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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October 08, 2011, 11:28:24 PM
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without long-term bulls like you guys, the price will crash to 0.1 or lower instantly. I'd like to say thanks. Because of you guys, I can continue to sell the coins I mine every day.

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October 09, 2011, 01:45:23 AM
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Right this second it's possible to get ~$4 per day on hardware that would have otherwise mined $1.50 worth of bitcoins using $1.20 in power.  You gotta love leveraged speculation.

P.s. Tulips were used as currency in Holland.  They were routinely exchanged for a far wider range of goods and services than bitcoins today.

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October 09, 2011, 01:51:50 AM
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Right this second it's possible to get ~$4 per day on hardware that would have otherwise mined $1.50 worth of bitcoins using $1.20 in power.  You gotta love leveraged speculation.

P.s. Tulips were used as currency in Holland.  They were routinely exchanged for a far wider range of goods and services than bitcoins today.


Well, these power rates are beyond anything the average user has access to. And industrial scale mining does not exist yet.

PPS: does the term "intended to" mean anything to you? People have traded with coal, cigarettes, whiskey, chewing gum and toilet paper but that doesn't mean that it is a currency. Heck bitcoin is even more a currency than gold is, even with it's wider acceptance it is mostly used for jewelry and the currency aspect playing a minor role.
With bitcoin it is almost exclusively a currency, while the hash chain can be used as a verification method of any data.

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October 09, 2011, 01:55:57 AM
 #16

without long-term bulls like you guys, the price will crash to 0.1 or lower instantly. I'd like to say thanks. Because of you guys, I can continue to sell the coins I mine every day.
You’re welcome, enjoy your full subsidy until Peak Bitcoin (end of 2012 I expect).

Please continue regularly dumping at market price so that long term investors get better deals, and the coins get spread to more people. Thank you!

Also, I just added a chart for my technical picture in the OP. http://i.imgur.com/U8uDh.png

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
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October 09, 2011, 02:09:03 AM
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Well, from what I've read long-term bears compare bitcoins to dutch tulips.
NFI how they arrive at this conclusion as tulips were never intended as a currency and bitcoin is.. I think most of it actually is about their wishful thinking that we get such a situation so they can buy it all up.

Alas they are really hidden long-term bulls.

Bull = bull
Bear = bull in disguise
Someone yet to hear of bitcoins = bull waiting to happen

Would some people like to talk down the value of bitcoins so they can get in cheaper?  Sure.  But bitcoin is a big boy now.  It has been around for a relatively long time (Internet time) and shouldn't be affected by the jawboning of a few people.  The only way one should reduce the value of bitcoins is to sell them off and depress the market.  But that means they already have a bunch if bitcoins to sell, so why would they want to drive down the price of something they already own?  It doesn't make sense.

The comparison with tulips is a little flawed, but it does highlight the maina which people can fall into as they attribute great value to something that essentially has none.  Sure, tulips were never viewed as a serious currency.  They didn't require electricity or run on the internet.  But they did show the trap people can fall into when they think 'it can only go higher from here!' and 'it's different this time!'.  Tulips, dotcoms, houses, bitcoins.  It doesn't matter what it is, people can turn manic.

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October 09, 2011, 02:51:26 AM
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I trust in the technology to monetize the web in a decentralized way. There's a lot of services not possible with any other payment system. The currently existing uses of Bitcoin barely scratch the surface of its full potential.

+1

Btw only one thing is scaring me a little - that somebody find a major security bug. That can make Bitcoin worthless almost instantly. Otherwise there will be still many places where will be Bitcoins better than any other payment system.

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October 09, 2011, 04:39:18 AM
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There are two kinds of long-term bears, those that think that bitcoin is not a real currency and will therefore fail, and those that think that bitcoin rests on solid foundations but that the circumstances for its potential rise in value will be hampered/suppressed for various reasons (political, etc). I only care to open-mindedly listen to the latter, because the former know nothing about economics. Most of the former aren't even austrian-minded libertarians, which is a prerequisite for any kind of logical discussion on this forum.

I am long-term bullish on digital currency, and to whatever extent bitcoin remains the best example of digital currency, I am long-term bullish on bitcoin too. Perhaps we won't see significant gains until the block reward is halved in 2012, but then again, if everyone expects this to cause a significant drop in miner-caused inflation and thus a rise in bitcoin value, the major buying will begin potentially far before the 25btc/block date. So sometime between then and now, whenever the market determines the best balance of investor fear/cynicism/phantom bears and investor confidence spurred by the 2012 reward change.

When I think of bitcoin I think of the Squeeze Theorem. The fundamentals of bitcoins as digital currency make it indisputable that they will replace paper currency --- backed or unbacked --- in the near future. Now, until then, it can take as wild a course as you can imagine to get there, but ultimately, we know where it is going to go. We are at this point in the present, and we know there is a point in the future where it will be adopted en masse. And so regardless of whatever kind of path you think bitcoin will take, this path will ultimately be squeezed to conform to its necessarily upward destination.
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October 09, 2011, 04:46:39 AM
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I am long-term bullish on digital currency, and to whatever extent bitcoin remains the best example of digital currency, I am long-term bullish on bitcoin too. Perhaps we won't see significant gains until the block reward is halved in 2012, but then again, if everyone expects this to cause a significant drop in miner-caused inflation and thus a rise in bitcoin value, the major buying will begin potentially far before the 25btc/block date. So sometime between then and now, whenever the market determines the best balance of investor fear/cynicism/phantom bears and investor confidence spurred by the 2012 reward change.

+1

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