Bitcoin might still crash with or without the ETF approval

[bbc.reporter]

We might be for another rollercoaster ride again. Does everyone remember the bitcoin futures pump of December? It was approved but the price also crashed after the hype. I reckon it does not matter what the decision will be on the ETF's application because there will be many whales selling on the news as a trading strategy.



Bitcoin on Tuesday surged above the $8,000 mark for the first time since May, giving renewed hope to cryptocurrency bulls looking for strength from the market's bellwether coin.

Bitcoin's latest surge comes shortly after a positive stretch of trading which was inspired by encouraging regulatory development around the world, as well as news that established financial industry behemoths were looking to develop crypto businesses.

This week, bitcoin bulls are getting excited about the expected approval of a bitcoin ETF sponsored by VanEck and blockchain platform SolidX. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is currently reviewing the application of this fund, and a source cited by ICO Journal said its chances of approval were "90% at this point."

Read in full https://www.nasdaq.com/article/heres-why-bitcoin-has-gained-15-this-week-cm995927

[1714324666]

1714324666

[bbc.reporter]

Does anyone have an opinion, or are we in a real stage of confusion? August 10 is 2 weeks away, and with everyone knowing that it might crash when whales sell the news, will it cause for the crash to occur days sooner because of the anticipation of the crash?

[STT]

I was just reading on this from an interesting twitter link posted in another thread.  It will not be decided in the short term, there is a number of ETF being considered but the main ETF in contention is apparently a Futures based ETF and this will not be decided ultimately till end of Feb in 2019.   So theres a while yet for speculation on the viability of this avenue.

Regardless of that its always going to be more important for Bitcoin population and usage to be rising, all this speculation and exchange hopping about on price is just a side show.  I hope the utility of Bitcoin is going to become more widespread really and it continue to be refined for greater usability

https://twitter.com/jchervinsky
https://twitter.com/gaborgurbacs
https://twitter.com/fintechfrank

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Does anyone have an opinion, or are we in a real stage of confusion? August 10 is 2 weeks away, and with everyone knowing that it might crash when whales sell the news, will it cause for the crash to occur days sooner because of the anticipation of the crash?

I think you're assuming that everyone has equal access to news about what's happening--and what's going to happen.  I suspect that whales, just like Wall Street big shots, have informational advantages.  I also think that's why we've seen bitcoin jump up to $8500 within the past week.  Somebody with deep pockets found out something, and they already placed their bets.  Can I prove it?  No, absolutely not.  It's just a hunch.

I wouldn't put much stock in this ETF thing being big enough to move the market significantly.  Seems like we've already been through this drama before.  Bitcoin is bitcoin, and an ETF is just a (sort of) derivative of the real thing.  I understand it's not really a derivative like a futures contract is.  I'm also not denying the importance of an ETF, but bitcoin can survive and has survived without ETFs.

[pooya87]

i don't know why some people tend to forge that we have already had this same trend before. price tends to go back to near $10k levels and be there. we tested it back in April and beginning of May and now we are testing it again. and this rise contrary to popular belief started in first week of July and before the ETF hype even started. the price would have broken $7k before the second week but the problem was Bancor was hacked on July 9th and that brought price down. then a couple of days later price started rising back up and then the ETF hype started when we started breaking the $7k resistance.

as for "crash" i believe we will have a drop not a crash. something like what we had last year with each rise which you can call "corrections".

[davis196]

"Chances of approval are 90%"Yeah,right.
I don`t think that anyone yould believe that lie,exept some naive newbies.
Why do you care about this?I'm a long term HODLer and I will HODL for atleast one year,with or without ETF approvals,price crashes or new ATHs.

[snipie]

Comparing December 2017 and now is not accurate and does not mean obligatory that the same thing will happen again.
People will sell for sure once the price reached a certain level but other will counterbalance it with buying.
I don't see negative news that will force them to sell so for now it is safe, just hold.

[audaciousbeing]

Does anyone have an opinion, or are we in a real stage of confusion? August 10 is 2 weeks away, and with everyone knowing that it might crash when whales sell the news, will it cause for the crash to occur days sooner because of the anticipation of the crash?

If anything is to go by the report, I read yesterday, I think the August 10 has been shifted forward till when we don't know. I am actually of the same opinion that whether ETF or not, price will fall, so also will price rise what would happen otherwise is ETF approval aiding the rise while disapproval aiding the fall. But its always encouraging that people should move beyond reacting to impending news before making their investment decisions because doing that would only confirm the argument that bitcoin is just an emerging currency that can swerve in any direction and most importantly not to be taken seriously. I have not seen any major currency reacting to speculations that cannot be founded.

[Idrisu]

This market is a speculative market and any things can happen because of the way we react to the market.  We are at the time when bitcoin price movement is highly uncertainty and even if ETF is approve and a very bad news hit the market we can still experience downfall in pricing.

[dothebeats]

Well what happened in 2017 December was a perfect turn of events: it has been speculated that the trustee from the MtGox funds have dumped into exchanges causing the downward spiral, and we all know that bitcoin back then is way overbought to handle more weight on its shoulders. Though I completely agree that ETFs aren't really a certainty for price boost, the overall influence it has on the confidence of traders is huge. It might be another rejection for the ETF even though they 'rethink' all the factors and postpone it but have we really gained something from these talks?

[Pursuer]

these days it seems to me that people are focusing all of their attention on what might happen in the market instead of focusing on what IS happening in the market and try to go with the flow not the flow that might come.
for example when price was at the bottom and market makers were accumulating people were focusing on what might happen if price goes lower instead of buying!
... then they complain why they have been left behind.

[bbc.reporter]

Does anyone have an opinion, or are we in a real stage of confusion? August 10 is 2 weeks away, and with everyone knowing that it might crash when whales sell the news, will it cause for the crash to occur days sooner because of the anticipation of the crash?

If anything is to go by the report, I read yesterday, I think the August 10 has been shifted forward till when we don't know. I am actually of the same opinion that whether ETF or not, price will fall, so also will price rise what would happen otherwise is ETF approval aiding the rise while disapproval aiding the fall. But its always encouraging that people should move beyond reacting to impending news before making their investment decisions because doing that would only confirm the argument that bitcoin is just an emerging currency that can swerve in any direction and most importantly not to be taken seriously. I have not seen any major currency reacting to speculations that cannot be founded.

That might be good for the price because the anticipation that somethng might happen will pump the price more than something that was already confirmed in the news hehehe.

I reckon only 1 of the 2 applications was postponed, the other one will be on the same date.

[fabiorem]

But bitcoin already crashed. I guess we will see 6k again, but nothing less than that.

[aditasetia123]

But bitcoin already crashed. I guess we will see 6k again, but nothing less than that.

i dont think it can happen.technicaly may be it corrected to around $7200 after SEC rejetced winklevoss etf.but this falling just temporary and while waves 4 completed bitcoin price will run bull again.

[BitcoinNewbie15]

But bitcoin already crashed. I guess we will see 6k again, but nothing less than that.

If we see $6k and no lower than that would be a quadruple bottom. I don't think this is very likely. I mean, honestly, if we see the low $6k range again then the price will likely keep dropping until it finds support at around $4.5k - $5k. I don't think this is going to happen, I just think the market reacted negatively to the ETF rejection, but this price drop could be just a bear trap.

[fabiorem]

But bitcoin already crashed. I guess we will see 6k again, but nothing less than that.

If we see $6k and no lower than that would be a quadruple bottom. I don't think this is very likely. I mean, honestly, if we see the low $6k range again then the price will likely keep dropping until it finds support at around $4.5k - $5k. I don't think this is going to happen, I just think the market reacted negatively to the ETF rejection, but this price drop could be just a bear trap.

The bears dont have any strenght left. If we touch 6k it will be like we touched 5k in April, something like 6.9k or 6.8k.

In any case, we will have higher lows, with or without ETFs.

[Wind_FURY]

OP, then you should stop scratching your bald head and prepare yourself to buy into another dip.

But bitcoin already crashed. I guess we will see 6k again, but nothing less than that.

If we see $6k and no lower than that would be a quadruple bottom. I don't think this is very likely. I mean, honestly, if we see the low $6k range again then the price will likely keep dropping until it finds support at around $4.5k - $5k. I don't think this is going to happen, I just think the market reacted negatively to the ETF rejection, but this price drop could be just a bear trap.

But there are other posters in the forum that say that this is a "bull trap" at the same time you and others are thinking that this is a "bear trap". Is a "bull-bear trap" really a "ranging market"?

[napi]

I think that's not true because I see bitcoin can only move from very high demand conditions and from the total supply is getting thinning, bitcoin is not dependent of etf.