Assuming Auroracoin can reach its goal of becoming a widely used currency in Iceland, we can calculate its potential market value as follows: there are 500 billion Icelandic Krona (ISK) in circulation (
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/iceland/money-supply-m1). That's worth about 5 billion USD or about 15'000 USD per inhabitant. Let's say Auroracoin reaches 10% of that within three years. In that case, we could expect it to be worth about 1'500 USD per inhabitant or 50 USD each. Right now it is trading somewhat below 0.01 BTC or about 4 USD each. So if you believe that it will be successful, you can get a tenfold return within three years - which is good. If there's an 80% chance of failure, the investment looks less positive (100% expected upside within three years), but still positive.
