FreeBitco.in and FreeDogeco.in : a simulation study of 54,000 rolls

[LauCoin]

I was wondering if the rolls used in FreeBitco.in and FreeDogeco.in are really fair or not. To check that I run a simulation of >54,000 rolls by using the official and verified checker (https://s3.amazonaws.com/roll-verifier/verify.html) and TinyTask a macro tool. I don’t trust their codes because it’s still possible to insert some tricky things in javascript to sidestep probabilities.

Here are the results:
https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-RfS6UxdRkvY/W1rm1h8ffwI/AAAAAAAABAg/Unj6qIia6OI4iBmEmN-SFLJpcY4PAcBygCLcBGAs/s1600/rolls.jpg

They seem a bit weird because I never rolled a 10,000 although I got several 0. It’s possible to get 9,998 or 9,999 but it’s very rare, much more than in theory.

Now I’m thinking how is it possible for this faucet to be profitable if in average they give $30 for each 10,000 views. That seems too much. And I don’t believe they are able to give $200 for each 10,000 views either.

What do you think ? Sorry for my bad English. For French, here are the detailed results : https://cryptogratuit.blogspot.com/

[LTU_btc]

In my opinion its fake, impossible to win the $200 prize. Never seen any real proof.
There lottery seems shady to...

It's not fake. There was several users on Bitcointalk who posted proofs that they won $200. For example here - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1650605.msg16583871#msg16583871
People more rarely posting proofs that they won on Freebitco.in lottery, but there was several users who had posted it.

[Aveatrex]

If I understood well,with 54000 rolls you got 0 of 10000 rolls? But how you calculated the theoretical probability for a 10000 (0.01% show in the image) if that calculation is correct it seems also fishy to me that means that 1 out of 10000 rolls would win 30$? No way...
Nice find OP.

[Xanderpitz1]

To calculate the odds of that happening just take the odds of NOT rolling 10000 and multiply it to the power of the number of rolls, so in this case:

(9999/10000)^54000 = 0.00451536155 or .45154% chance of NOT rolling a 10,000. Impossible? No, but very sketchy.

Also, who's to say the people that did post proof of rolling a 10,000 are not admins in disguise?