Bitcoin Forum
December 03, 2016, 03:53:46 PM *
News: To be able to use the next phase of the beta forum software, please ensure that your email address is correct/functional.
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: [1]
  Print  
Author Topic: HIGH AMOUNT OF SHARES TO FIND BLOCKS  (Read 903 times)
mu50stang
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 162


View Profile
October 11, 2011, 05:08:57 AM
 #1

Is it me or does it seem like its taking alot of shares at deepbit,arsbitcoin, and btc guild to find blocks.  I have been keeping an eye on them and some of the amount of shares is real high. 
1480780426
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480780426

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480780426
Reply with quote  #2

1480780426
Report to moderator
1480780426
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480780426

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480780426
Reply with quote  #2

1480780426
Report to moderator
1480780426
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480780426

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480780426
Reply with quote  #2

1480780426
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
saethan
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 42


View Profile
October 11, 2011, 07:47:58 AM
 #2

It's random chance that, over time, averages out to the difficulty(~1.7 million shares per block found).  I'd suggest looking at a history of at least 20-30 rounds and averaging those out.

Ars, the one I use, still has a buffer of 900btc, and before the recent unlucky round of over 8.6 million it was quite a bit higher.
DeathAndTaxes
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1218


Gerald Davis


View Profile
October 11, 2011, 12:27:48 PM
 #3

Roll 4 dice at the same time.  Sometimes it will be all low numbers, sometimes a mix, and occasionally it will be all sixes.  You are just seeing one end of the distribution curve.
jjiimm_64
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1680


View Profile
October 11, 2011, 03:24:25 PM
 #4

It's random chance that, over time, averages out to the difficulty(~1.7 million shares per block found).  I'd suggest looking at a history of at least 20-30 rounds and averaging those out.

Ars, the one I use, still has a buffer of 900btc, and before the recent unlucky round of over 8.6 million it was quite a bit higher.

mu50stang , how long will you have to run your rigs to find an 8 million share block?

1jimbitm6hAKTjKX4qurCNQubbnk2YsFw
mu50stang
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 162


View Profile
October 11, 2011, 04:16:32 PM
 #5

Quiet a while
saethan
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 42


View Profile
October 12, 2011, 08:59:42 AM
 #6

Yeah the 8 million I mentioned is quite an outlier.  Only mentioned it because it fell in the 20-30 range I suggested.

A quick and dirty copy/paste into openoffice calc shows since the last difficulty change, Ars has averaged about 1.55 million shares per block found with the Q1 and Q3 at 0.46m and 2.25m - I was using Ars as an example of a fair pool, the actual statistics seem to show they're beating the 1/difficulty rate by quite a bit(which explains the current positive buffer).

The accuracy gets a little screwy past the precision I'm using here because there was one data point that has a share count of 0 - not sure whether to include it or not, but the effect is like a -0.6% difference (1/170) if you include it(my numbers above don't).

[edit] oh just a thought, my math professors would kill me for saying 'average' when I meant 'mean', especially since I listed Q3 and Q1 - which are usually listed along with median for box plots.  The median is 1.12mil, which shows the expected skew since numbers can't go below 0 but can occasionally get very high.
Hunterbunter
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 980


View Profile
October 12, 2011, 09:16:45 AM
 #7

Don't forget that the difficulty is based on previous performance, to roughly get 2016 blocks per fortnight.

the Total Network Hashrate is now around 8-11TH/s, and the difficulty is still set for 14+TH/s hashrate (or thereabouts), and so there are fewer machines trying to find a harder number. It will take more than 2 weeks to get a new block cycle...by probably a week more, and the numbers you see will be normal until the new difficulty is calculated and then it'll go to something you're more used to.

If the number of machines mining drops further, to match price drops, it'll always take more than a fortnight, just like as hashrates have been increasing, it's always taken less than a fortnight.
DeathAndTaxes
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1218


Gerald Davis


View Profile
October 12, 2011, 12:44:23 PM
 #8

Don't forget that the difficulty is based on previous performance, to roughly get 2016 blocks per fortnight.

the Total Network Hashrate is now around 8-11TH/s, and the difficulty is still set for 14+TH/s hashrate (or thereabouts), and so there are fewer machines trying to find a harder number. It will take more than 2 weeks to get a new block cycle...by probably a week more, and the numbers you see will be normal until the new difficulty is calculated and then it'll go to something you're more used to.

If the number of machines mining drops further, to match price drops, it'll always take more than a fortnight, just like as hashrates have been increasing, it's always taken less than a fortnight.

That's a good point.  Average block time is rising due to the network being "underpowered".  The reverse can also be true.  IF network power is rising then aver block time will be less than 10 minutes until difficulty adjusts.

Pages: [1]
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!