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Author Topic: MtGox Insolvency? Blockchain?  (Read 2671 times)
dddbtc
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February 20, 2014, 08:37:42 PM
 #1

For those who take the position of MtGox being insolvent/bankrupt due to the transaction malleability hack? Where is the mass exodus of BTC from the exchange? Surely we would have noticed an entire exchange being via the blockchain? This does not discount the rest of their business practices, but for those of you who think the exchange is empty due to the hack, help convince me, I am trying to figure out what to due with my funds in the exchange.
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February 21, 2014, 11:58:24 AM
 #2

Today on #bitcoin

gmaxwell: wumpus: yea, I understand they had timed automatic reissues... Sad this was also something I didn't know prior to monday before last and is one of the other reasons my "they couldn't have lost much!" position softened to "I have no freeking clue."
alpha125: gmaxwell: where did you find out abotu the automatic reissues?
gmaxwell: alpha125: from mtgox staff and magicaltux ... I had assumed previously that any reissues were manual via customer support but apparently it was just timed.
gmaxwell: you'll also note that they've kept increasing their fees and then even mad paying fees mandatory.
gmaxwell: This suggested to me that they totally misunderstood their problems. (and— I reported that I believed this months ago too)
gmaxwell: e.g. they noticed lots of txn getting stuck, they didn't understand it was because they were producing invalid txn (even though it was reported to them) and so they thought it was just 'full blocks'
gmaxwell: and they increased their fees from 0.0001 to 0.0005 — which was enough to may more than virtually every txn— and then later to 0.001 which is basically astronomic. And then they made it mandatory.
gmaxwell: of course their stalled txn had nothing to do with fees.

Edit: Just to clarify, only quoted relevant parts (maybe I should have inserted "[...]" where applicable). Full text here: http://pastebin.com/DaSph9uT

According to this they were effectively automatically reissueing transactions that didn't go through.  Combined with transaction malleability this seems to be money walking out the door automatically...

If you liked this post buy me a beer.  Beers are quite cheap where I live!
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February 21, 2014, 12:41:40 PM
 #3

The bitcoin days destroyed had a large spike on the 7th February, but I can't tell if this was due to withdrawals or deposits (someone can clarify this?).
However, the malleability attack peaked on the 10th and 11th February. Someone wanted MtGox to stop bitcoin withdrawals for some time.
If the BDD of the 7th was due to scammed bitcoins leaving MtGox, then they lost a large number of bitcoins. If however there were lots
of bitcoins transferred to MtGox on the 7th, knowing that they'll halt BTC withdrawals for some time, and sold while the price was above 700$,
those manipulators already made a fortune, buying below 200$. They now wait for MtGox to resume withdrawals, so they can cash out on other exchanges.
If a large number of bitcoins would have left MtGox, other exchanges should have already seen a lot more seller pressure, and a much lower price by now.
What I could see instead on Bitstamp (the cash out exchange) were normal movements for the first 1 / 3 of a bear market, no huge dumps yet.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
Sheerohtsug
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February 21, 2014, 01:53:39 PM
 #4

Hi

I understand that despite Gox's responsibility/incompetence in preventing the malleability fraud, they ARE under well planified attack.
Their automatic re-sending of malleability-altered transactions may have caused a leak of coins, up to an unknown extent before getting noticed.

Then, I hope that the fraudulent individuals who deliberately stole coins though double-withdrawal, can be identified and will not get away with this.

Will the additional information added to the blockchain help GOX in identifying the fraudulent transactions ? (that went through succesfully but being altered, and then re-sent again resulting in double--withdrawal)

I truly hope these thiefs are identified, and that they still do own substantial assets in MTGOX.
These frauders' BTC and Cash assets should be frozen by GOX without delay before they re-initiate BTC withdrawals,
as honnest users should not be harmed by the fraud. 


If Gox can do that and ensure normal people s coins are safe, and confiscate frauders's coins, then I wish they continue the withdrawals halt period a few more days and and freeze these bastards account cleanly.



NB: I hope the Bitcoinbuilder site is not becoming a way for the frauders to launder and get out, fearing for their account if they get caught.
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February 21, 2014, 03:12:33 PM
 #5

Will the additional information added to the blockchain help GOX in identifying the fraudulent transactions ? (that went through succesfully but being altered, and then re-sent again resulting in double--withdrawal)

I truly hope these thiefs are identified, and that they still do own substantial assets in MTGOX.
These frauders' BTC and Cash assets should be frozen by GOX without delay before they re-initiate BTC withdrawals,
as honnest users should not be harmed by the fraud.  

Unlikely. You should expect the worse. The multiple-withdraw issue would make real coins land outside of MtGox. Even if the thief has been identified, he has no more bitcoins than the amount he repeatedly withdraw each time in the account.

Quote
If Gox can do that and ensure normal people s coins are safe, and confiscate frauders's coins, then I wish they continue the withdrawals halt period a few more days and and freeze these bastards account cleanly.

Most people speculate that they are buying cheap choins now, and they have no reason not to. You should instead hope they bought enough coins with fiat (which shouldn't be stolen) to pay back everyone, so that they be solvent at the cost of panic sellers. - Notice the latest press release is intended to provoke panic sell. This way the panic sellers will be angry (when they discover it) but the story ends with the usual way that cause least disturbence to the market - the way that who at fault go  unpunished.

My (old) column about Bitcoin & China: http://bitcoinblog.de/tag/zhangweiwuengl/
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February 21, 2014, 04:24:40 PM
 #6

...
I truly hope these thiefs are identified, and that they still do own substantial assets in MTGOX.
These frauders' BTC and Cash assets should be frozen by GOX without delay before they re-initiate BTC withdrawals,
as honnest users should not be harmed by the fraud. 
...

It's possible that MtGox is delaying the BTC withdrawals in an attempt to buy time to identify those responsible and recover some of their scammed coins.
But the harm MtGox did to themselves and to the market by acting so is IMO much greater than the theft itself (which was facilitated by their negligence).

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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February 21, 2014, 04:27:58 PM
 #7

i suffered a lot already. don't where the price will go.

bitgeek
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February 21, 2014, 05:05:49 PM
 #8

...
I truly hope these thiefs are identified, and that they still do own substantial assets in MTGOX.
These frauders' BTC and Cash assets should be frozen by GOX without delay before they re-initiate BTC withdrawals,
as honnest users should not be harmed by the fraud. 
...

It's possible that MtGox is delaying the BTC withdrawals in an attempt to buy time to identify those responsible and recover some of their scammed coins.
But the harm MtGox did to themselves and to the market by acting so is IMO much greater than the theft itself (which was facilitated by their negligence).
Yup not many people will trust Gox after this. That's why there are rumors of Karpeles investing in another business. Gox as a brand name is now similar to BFL, just a reminder of how people gt fucked.


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nxtonly
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February 23, 2014, 05:21:58 AM
 #9

the price is picking up at mtgox

rograz
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February 23, 2014, 10:57:51 AM
 #10

the price is picking up at mtgox

I think that has a lot to do with the fact that people can get 0,5ish "real BTC" for 1 goxbtc currently, just 1 day ago if you had fiat on gox you could double it by buying gox coins and selling them on bitcoinbuilder.
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February 24, 2014, 03:31:49 AM
 #11

Is it possible to make fiat deposit on mtgox now? how long will it take?

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February 24, 2014, 05:51:34 AM
 #12

Is it possible to make fiat deposit on mtgox now? how long will it take?
I would strongly recommend against this. You probably have better odds playing blackjack at a casino at this point.

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p-webcorp
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February 24, 2014, 08:38:35 AM
 #13

Is it possible to make fiat deposit on mtgox now? how long will it take?

You can, BUT do not do it except you are redy to loose that amount. If you win, it's ok, but too low chance for it.
Am blocked there and don't know what to do now.
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February 24, 2014, 10:06:36 AM
 #14

Let's not forget that MtGox is the Friendster of the btc ecosystem
Bankruptcy an issue but not a mortal blow, not anymore

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