Mt Gox Endgame

[bitcointodayand]

What is the Mt. Gox endgame, and why? Put forth your arguments with facts and sound point by point logic.

Thank you.

[jaybny]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=469628.0

court ordered liquidation.

[Holliday]

No need to speculate. Just sit back and watch it first hand.

[elux]

Andreas weighs in: https://soundcloud.com/mindtomatter/e85-mtgox-and-malleability#t=45:28

[FrictionlessCoin]

Likely prison time.

You can't be a custodian and then say that you lost all the money or BTC.

That is criminal behavior.

[roslinpl]

What is the Mt. Gox endgame, and why? Put forth your arguments with facts and sound point by point logic.

Thank you.

is it something wrong with Mt Gox?

[Bobsurplus]

No need to speculate. Just sit back and watch it first hand.

This... plus


its obvious.. the price will drop to zero on gox and the lights will go out. Mark will either be hiding, or in bankruptcy court but wherever he is you can bet on him having major stacks of bitcoin hidden from all of us.

[bitcointodayand]

People seem convinced Mt. Gox won't come back. But I haven't seen any real hard proof of that to date.

[leopard2]

not sure guys, if fiat doesn't go out and coins don't go out, where should all the funds have gone?  

unless they have been robbed by malleability, which is impossible with cold wallets and all the manual checking they do, the funds should be there. maybe not 100% but most of them.

believing that they STOLE the money and ran off, is bullshit imho - there is no place on this planet where someone like that can hide safely

Mark is a celebrity

He is also probably a whale

A celebrity whale making tons of money, stealing some more money so he winds up on the FBI most wanted list?

No. I would estimate, a 80%-95% solvency but also 80-95% incompetence.

Delaying an insolvency, is a serious crime  and stealing money from customers beforehand, is even worse - probably in Japan as well. It is a difference between being insolvent or going to jail for a few years! Not something a whale would do either.

There is a good read here

http://www.tomeika.jur.kyushu-u.ac.jp/insolvency/3_Liquidation.html

Of course it is possible that some employee ran off with funds and they are trying to cover that up...

Soon we will know  

[MicroGuy]

What is the Mt. Gox endgame, and why? Put forth your arguments with facts and sound point by point logic.

Thank you.

Buy customer coins at discount prices, sell on other markets, repeat until all MtGox coins are purchased, resume business as normal.

[roslinpl]

What is the Mt. Gox endgame, and why? Put forth your arguments with facts and sound point by point logic.

Thank you.

Buy customer coins at discount prices, sell on other markets, repeat until all MtGox coins are purchased, resume business as normal.

uhm...

might be ... but this is breaking the law, and if that fact would be a fact indeed, and we would find it out gox will die forever. So perhaps there is a chance that they are not doing this

[FrictionlessCoin]

What is the Mt. Gox endgame, and why? Put forth your arguments with facts and sound point by point logic.

Thank you.

Buy customer coins at discount prices, sell on other markets, repeat until all MtGox coins are purchased, resume business as normal.

That is what appears to be happening now. 

Mt.Gox needs to hold down the price long enough for their fiat to be transferred from whatever other exchange they are using.   

If you watch the markets closely, you notice there appears to be selling pressure on the exchanges.   Could this be Mt.Gox selling the coins that it got at deflated prices?

[MicroGuy]

Exactly.

They could be using abandoned customer accounts with withdrawal functionality enabled. I'm sure there are thousands of accounts that haven't been used in years. Just log in from a TOR node and you're setup to make millions a day in trades. The fact that the trading engine is still running is what makes me think there may be some hanky panky.

Any responsible exchange would have shut down the trading engine until deposits and withdrawals were working.

[FrictionlessCoin]

Exactly.

They could be using abandoned customer accounts with withdrawal functionality enabled. I'm sure there are thousands of accounts that haven't been used in years. Just log in from a TOR node and you're setup to make millions a day in trades. The fact that the trading engine is still running is what makes me think there may be some hanky panky.

Any responsible exchange would have shut down the trading engine until deposits and withdrawals were working.

Agree entirely,  Mt.Gox has no business running trades while they can't allow their customers to withdraw.

In addition,  any reputable exchange would have halted trading due to the massive discrepancy of their price with what other exchanges are quoting.

[leopard2]

What is the Mt. Gox endgame, and why? Put forth your arguments with facts and sound point by point logic.

Thank you.

Buy customer coins at discount prices, sell on other markets, repeat until all MtGox coins are purchased, resume business as normal.

Good point. In the US the profits of such trades would be seized but in Japan?

But is that unethical? People sell at these prices, nobody is forced to do so.

And blaming them for leaving the engine running is moot - people here would complain even more if they would stop trading, too.

If Gox had any common sense they would show the public keys of some of their (cold) wallets right on their front page so to soothe the market. 

[FrictionlessCoin]

What is the Mt. Gox endgame, and why? Put forth your arguments with facts and sound point by point logic.

Thank you.

Buy customer coins at discount prices, sell on other markets, repeat until all MtGox coins are purchased, resume business as normal.

Good point. In the US the profits of such trades would be seized but in Japan?

But is that unethical? People sell at these prices, nobody is forced to do so.

And blaming them for leaving the engine running is moot - people here would complain even more if they would stop trading, too.

If Gox had any common sense they would show the public keys of some of their (cold) wallets right on their front page so to soothe the market. 

Unethical because if you sell BTC that isn't really backed by real BTC, then you can certainly squash the price.  Furthermore, by not allowing BTC withdrawal, there is no way to verify if the BTC anyone purchases is real.

[bitcointodayand]

What is the Mt. Gox endgame, and why? Put forth your arguments with facts and sound point by point logic.

Thank you.

Buy customer coins at discount prices, sell on other markets, repeat until all MtGox coins are purchased, resume business as normal.

Why would they need to do that. Isn't running an exchange a profitable enough business on it's own (especially when you have large market share)?

[bitcointodayand]

How many people do you know that are buying Mt. Gox bitcoins? What is the profit potential if Mt. Gox survives?

[bitcointodayand]

Ok, on a 100% probability scale, let's get people's best estimate on the probability that Mt. Gox survives. I say 65% chance of survival, but it is a total guess. I know most people have been saying lower.

[galbros]

I think this is really interesting.

Given the incredibly low market price I'm starting to think that Mt. Gox doesn't have the coins.  The only thing that puzzles me is why the huge volume on the site?