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Author Topic: The End of Bitcoin as a speculative Investment  (Read 4577 times)
ElectricMucus
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February 24, 2014, 04:19:23 PM
 #41

The "money supply" has lots of definitions.  If we look at broad money supply (M2) it has expanded almost 10x in the last 35 years.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=sqb

Big whoop, in a world where many people don't even live longer than 70.

But most do live long than 35.  This is rather unprecidented so to pass it off as routine is disingenuous.  Please point to a period of time prior to 1980 where then money supply expanded 10x in any 35 year period.

Please point to any time period prior to 1980 where most people could afford computers,
Money in circulation =/= monetary base.

It would be like someone saying apples are red and you saying "bullshit" and posting a photo of an orange as proof.

johnyj's chart uses the same data as the st.louis fed monetary base chart including excess reserves and for all practical purposes it is bullshit.
To match your analogy, it shows an apple and writes "This is a banana" on top of it.

Well seeing as the charts don't even peak at the same value or point .... that seems unlikely.  Maybe you assumed the chart was for the monetary base when in fact it could be for M0, or M1.

It's the same data, are you blind?
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DeathAndTaxes
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February 24, 2014, 04:21:16 PM
 #42

The "money supply" has lots of definitions.  If we look at broad money supply (M2) it has expanded almost 10x in the last 35 years.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=sqb

Big whoop, in a world where many people don't even live longer than 70.

But most do live long than 35.  This is rather unprecidented so to pass it off as routine is disingenuous.  Please point to a period of time prior to 1980 where then money supply expanded 10x in any 35 year period.

Please point to any time period prior to 1980 where most people could afford computers,
Money in circulation =/= monetary base.

It would be like someone saying apples are red and you saying "bullshit" and posting a photo of an orange as proof.

johnyj's chart uses the same data as the st.louis fed monetary base chart including excess reserves and for all practical purposes it is bullshit.
To match your analogy, it shows an apple and writes "This is a banana" on top of it.

Well seeing as the charts don't even peak at the same value or point .... that seems unlikely.  Maybe you assumed the chart was for the monetary base when in fact it could be for M0, or M1.

It's the same data, are you blind?

"roughly the same" =/= "same".

I mean one chart peaks >$3T and the other <$3T so they aren't "the same data".  I don't like the first chart simply because it provides no cite or reference but it is most certainly not the same data. 
ElectricMucus
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February 24, 2014, 04:26:19 PM
 #43

It is the same data, it fits perfectly. And it uses the public misunderstanding of how quantitative easing works, purposefully ignoring excess reserves for scaremongering.
Oh and that the Bullshit chart doesn't cite any references doesn't strengthen your argument either.
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February 24, 2014, 04:59:48 PM
 #44

You must be new around here.

No, he just doesn't understand Bitcoin.

Both.
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February 24, 2014, 05:15:40 PM
 #45

Bitcoin will now be used as a currency for remitance, etc. But even that might not happen because of government, in only the past two month half the world banned Bitcoin:

China,Russia, india, Middle east and Gulf countries, all banned bitcoin these countries have the most money and even like USA and Canada all want to put massive regulation. All these factors means mainstream investment is dead.


All these countries do not offer much freedoom. Bitcoin is ultimate freedoom as a paying method so its future success depends how much freedoom will be over world.
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February 24, 2014, 05:22:43 PM
 #46


It's all bullshit. But bullshit makes the flowers grow and that's beautiful.
knightcoin
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February 24, 2014, 05:29:07 PM
 #47

end ? I think we barely started Cheesy


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February 24, 2014, 07:33:08 PM
 #48



Well too bad then, the world is controlled by doers the one u call fools not the wise thinkers who just think but don't do jack shit
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February 24, 2014, 07:34:00 PM
 #49

end ? I think we barely started Cheesy



U r gravely mistaken its the end and u will lose all ur money.
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February 24, 2014, 07:46:57 PM
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U r gravely mistaken its the end and u will lose all ur money.

Your'e just upset because you missed the boat, that's something else.
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February 24, 2014, 07:56:25 PM
 #51

U r gravely mistaken its the end and u will lose all ur money.

Your'e just upset because you missed the boat, that's something else.

I didn't miss the boat, far from it.
Cyberlight
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February 24, 2014, 07:58:18 PM
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didn't miss the boat, far from it.

So, you have Bitcoins ?
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February 24, 2014, 08:41:24 PM
 #53

OP, you're posting here like you've got some sort of new message shining light onto the world.

You've only joined the club of people who will end up eating their words. "Veteran" users have been through this time and time again, the fact of the matter is: You have no clue what the future holds and I'm shocked you would even attempt to predict the value of such disruptive technology. This idea is bigger than your tiny mind and all of its processing power and where it goes will definitely not be foretold by you.

The only thing you can keep saying is "Wait and see, it's the end, you will lose all your money" while most adopters are up thousands of percent since entry. The only person who needs to do any waiting and seeing is you, the next year will bring such powerful movement and change, your head might actually explode.
nwbitcoin
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February 24, 2014, 08:43:11 PM
 #54

I think the OP has a point, but maybe not yet.

Bitcoin has barely scratched the surface, and I still meet people who'd like a bitcoin or two, but have no idea how to buy one.  However, in all reality, I don't think they ever will buy a bitcoin to keep.

The whole point of a bitcoin is that it allows you to move value digitally.  However, once the transaction has been done, people want their local fiat.  So, in a matter of an hour or so, they buy the right amount of bitcoin, do the deal, and the other person sells the bitcoin.

The actual value of the bitcoin is irrelevant to that deal.  It could be worth $500 a coin, $2000 or $200000 - it doesn't matter.  They only actually buy enough to cover the cost of their deal.

If bitcoin isn't bought and sold as an investment, and its prime purpose isn't as a store of value, it isn't going to go up much more in value than it needs to.

Personally, I think Nxtcoin has a far better future than bitcoin, but what bitcoin is doing is teaching regulators how to deal with crypto currency, and that is why a coin could be worth $2000 or so within the next few months but within 10 years will only be of value as a collectors piece! ;-)


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porcupine87
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February 24, 2014, 09:13:40 PM
 #55

Bitcoin is not dead, but as an investment it is dead. Bitcoin peaked at $1200 and that was the maximum it will ever get to.

Even if wall street comes, it will just keep going up and down between like $400 - $800 but we will never see $2000 or $5000 $10,000 etc. It will still be very profitable for pro day traders something like forex, but no more 300% + returns for average joe buy and holders who are majority.

Bitcoin will now be used as a currency for remitance, etc. But even that might not happen because of government, in only the past two month half the world banned Bitcoin:

China,Russia, india, Middle east and Gulf countries, all banned bitcoin these countries have the most money and even like USA and Canada all want to put massive regulation. All these factors means mainstream investment is dead.

Bitcoin is not dead, but as an investment it is dead. Bitcoin peaked at $32 and that was the maximum it will ever get to.
Bitcoin is not dead, but as an investment it is dead. Bitcoin peaked at $266 and that was the maximum it will ever get to.

I read a similiar thread a half year ago and bought at 100$. Hm...

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February 24, 2014, 09:45:27 PM
 #56

OP, ever started talking with someone about Bitcoin and been surprised they have no idea at all about it? I get that all the time because sometimes I fail to realize that at the moment it really is a small small market niche. So many people don't know about it or have only linked it to the usual bullshit (SR etc)

Because of this, the "untapped masses", Bitcoin isn't finished as a speculative investment for mine.

But I think success or failure depends on adoption: imagine keeping your funds in the btc ecosystem at all times, displacing much of the need for fiat. Adoption though, will be affected by many things.

1. ease of use

2. media portrayal / FUD / reputation

3. regulation

4. economic circumstance (ie a major pos / neg event ala Cyprus)

if we reach a tipping point where enough people are able use it, where merchants accept it (need that easy transaction point) then surely it will make sense to keep our funds within the bitcoin ecosystem?
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February 25, 2014, 03:15:37 AM
 #57

Nope. I disagree...

That would make no sense as our rate of adoption is increasing more rapidly than ever... Even after we reach 50% of our maximum market saturation the price will continue to climb for a few years and taper into a steady price as the supply relative to the demand decreases...

Adoption? What adoption. U really think ppl will go to ATM put cash loose 4% fee then transfer bitcoin loose more money because volitality then purchase an item? Bitcoin is fundamentally useless unless the price keeps going up siginificantly.

With credit card it takes one minute to buy online right now and if u get scammed u get refund!

Ppl lost confidence in bitcoin even btc foundation doesn't care anymore.

JUST think about it, Bitcoin doesn't make sense anymore unless it acts as a speculative investmebt, otherwise it offers nothing. And with all these major countries banning it, it will never become a world reserve currency

It offers nothing?  Have you tried sending money internationally lately?  When you need to send cash to someone...compare the fees with that of btc, and then report back on how "useless" bitcoin is.  Regardless of the downtrend in btc value this week, the invention itself has changed and will continue to revolutionize how money is used worldwide...
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February 25, 2014, 03:29:08 AM
 #58



Umm no I looked at the history, never before bitcoin was banned worldwide from the largrst economies in the world. Never before 1 million customers lost 90% value of their btc in box and after mallebility bug ppl lost confidence in bitcoin foundation devs who r doing nothing

"The lesson from the Internet is, anything that China bans, invest in it," Wilson said Tuesday, seemingly half in jest. But he backed up his comments on his blog, noting that: "My point being that the services China likes to block are the really important ones that have been built on the Internet." He's referring to the country's bans on citizens' access to Facebook and Twitter--both of which, from a venture-capital perspective, would have been great bets. - http://www.inc.com/christine-lagorio/fred-wilson-bitcoin-predictions.html

And Mt. Gox was shit from the beginning. What happened was wrong, but anyone who loses confidence in Bitcoin because they lost confidence in an exchange literally named Magic the Gathering Online Exchange needs to go.

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