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Author Topic: Breakout to the Upside Imminent  (Read 4297 times)
zby
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October 13, 2011, 10:45:40 AM
 #41

If the price drops below what some promote as the 'long term trend' - then bitcoin will not have any plausible growth story - it will not stop collapsing until it reaches the level that can be supported by commerce using bitcoin.

By supporting I mean the situation where the utility of the bitcoin system is greater then the electricity and other costs of running the system.  It is very hard to quantify the utility of the bitcoin system - there are some transactions that are facilitated by it - but even if we count that they operate with 50% of profit (which is probably way too generous even for SilkRoad) and if we all of that profit count as generated by the bitcoin system - I suspect that this still would not be even the same order of magnitude as the $500K/month electricity cost of the recent hash rate (which is dropping but not very fast).
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saqwe
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October 13, 2011, 12:01:09 PM
 #42

If the price drops below what some promote as the 'long term trend' - then bitcoin will not have any plausible growth story - it will not stop collapsing until it reaches the level that can be supported by commerce using bitcoin.

By supporting I mean the situation where the utility of the bitcoin system is greater then the electricity and other costs of running the system.  It is very hard to quantify the utility of the bitcoin system - there are some transactions that are facilitated by it - but even if we count that they operate with 50% of profit (which is probably way too generous even for SilkRoad) and if we all of that profit count as generated by the bitcoin system - I suspect that this still would not be even close to the $500K electricity cost of the recent hash rate (which is dropping but not very fast).

+1

true dat

but how did you get your 500k figure? which electricity cost, w/mhash? and at which hashrate/difficulty would it be stable at say 1$, if 7200 btc are produced avery day... ?

zby
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October 13, 2011, 12:07:08 PM
 #43

That $500K is a very rough estimation - but this is all I could arrive at: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=28780.0
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October 13, 2011, 03:50:04 PM
 #44

This... BTC is plagued by scammers and hackers, who are the main reason why the price is so low.

The question is, is the price "so low"? It seems like it because it shot up to $32 at one point. However, just one year ago, 1 bitcoin was 20 cents US and if you had told me it would hit $1 by this time this year I'm not sure I would have believed you.

That is true.  Bitcoins could be worth $1 each tomorrow and some people could legitimately still claim that bitcoin's value has boomed.  This is assuming they either mined or bought bitcoins when they were worth a handful of cents each.

What we really need to look at is how many people were aware of bitcoin, and had a substantial stake in it when they were worth just a few cents each.  If 100 people bought in at 10c each, yet the vast majority of people interested in bitcoin (let's say, 1000) bought in when popularity boomed in early/mid 2011, the vast majority would be disillusioned with the price hovering around $4.  There are a few winners, but many losers.

Bitcoin's price bubble is still deflating and it's difficult to see what current product or event could see it reach $10+ again.

Another huge wave of interest, with lots of new money coming in. That's why a lot of people are trying to introduce bitcoins to the Occupy movement. The only problem is, those people have no money.
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October 13, 2011, 04:26:57 PM
 #45

Another huge wave of interest, with lots of new money coming in. That's why a lot of people are trying to introduce bitcoins to the Occupy movement. The only problem is, those people have no money.
Good point.

I consider it inappropriate to try to push the Bitcoin pyramid on the Occupy Wall Street people, who have a legitimate beef and are trying to do something about it.
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October 13, 2011, 05:18:46 PM
 #46

Another huge wave of interest, with lots of new money coming in. That's why a lot of people are trying to introduce bitcoins to the Occupy movement. The only problem is, those people have no money.
Good point.

I consider it inappropriate to try to push the Bitcoin pyramid on the Occupy Wall Street people, who have a legitimate beef and are trying to do something about it.

Of course, if OWS finds Bitcoin useful all your previous preaching will negate due to new wave of adoption
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October 13, 2011, 11:38:11 PM
 #47

To add to the news,one of the films I'm involved in making is partly funded by BTC.I can't say too much at the moment but having an actual film funded by BTC will definatley help things.

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old_engineer
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October 14, 2011, 12:29:07 AM
 #48

I consider it inappropriate to try to push the Bitcoin pyramid on the Occupy Wall Street people, who have a legitimate beef and are trying to do something about it.

Disagree - the Move Your Money project (moveyourmoneyproject.org) is closely tied to Occupy Wall Street, and bitcoin is another way of achieving the same goal of removing money from Wall Street.  It's clearly relevant to OWS.

And Bitcoin is not a pyramid: more accurate would be a one-time startup cost to all of the early adopters, same as with any VC-funded startup, until most of the coins are minted.  The blockchain does take money to support, but which one do you think more closely aligns to the beliefs of OWS participants: a bunch of crypto-hackers trying to build an alternative currency, or wall street banks?  Both take a cut of profits (banking fees, mined blocks) to keep going.  And bitcoin will never need a $1 trillion bailout, which comes to $3,300 per man, woman, and child in the US.

Also, The Occupy Wall Street General Assembly can't just walk into a bank branch and get an account.  PayPal has shut down addresses associated with OWS.  But they were able to just create a bitcoin address, at no cost, and have accepted almost $1100 so far through their donation address:
https://blockexplorer.com/address/1Q7DQVTubbUqr5by2YoZJRKCEzj9D3LQ9w

It seems clear to me that bitcoins are highly useful to OWS participants.  The perfect is the enemy of the good in many cases, and you often have to choose between bad or even worse.  Bitcoin, which certainly has problems, is a useful financial tool in some situations.  If the only thing Bitcoin ends up being used for is to easily send money to prohibited groups like Wikileaks and OWS, I'd consider it a success.
the joint
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October 14, 2011, 12:37:40 AM
 #49

Cool so if I create a sockpuppet account today I can increase this "imminent uptrend" by 33%  Roll Eyes

No... I'm not really following you...

In case IHBT congratulations  Undecided

I am afraid you are right. Nothing is moving. It is all pretty much dead.  Undecided

Only thing that could possibly save us right now is a big company getting bitcoin adoption started etc.

What, like Kiva or something?

He said a 'big' company?

630,000 people using Kiva since 2005?   

That would be like getting Bitcoin users to accept Bitcoin.

the joint
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October 14, 2011, 12:44:38 AM
 #50

Why do we talk about being "saved" by a corporation? That's like waiting around for a "job creator" to rescue you. Bitcoin does not need any help, if it did, it would have no merit.
The price of bitcoins is irrelevant. If they are $100/ or $.01/, they are just value place-markers. Are nickels a failure because they are only worth $.05?    

I actually think Bitcoin adoption by a huge corporation at this point might kill Bitcoin altogether.

the joint
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October 14, 2011, 12:55:54 AM
 #51

This... BTC is plagued by scammers and hackers, who are the main reason why the price is so low.

The question is, is the price "so low"? It seems like it because it shot up to $32 at one point. However, just one year ago, 1 bitcoin was 20 cents US and if you had told me it would hit $1 by this time this year I'm not sure I would have believed you.

That is true.  Bitcoins could be worth $1 each tomorrow and some people could legitimately still claim that bitcoin's value has boomed.  This is assuming they either mined or bought bitcoins when they were worth a handful of cents each.

What we really need to look at is how many people were aware of bitcoin, and had a substantial stake in it when they were worth just a few cents each.  If 100 people bought in at 10c each, yet the vast majority of people interested in bitcoin (let's say, 1000) bought in when popularity boomed in early/mid 2011, the vast majority would be disillusioned with the price hovering around $4.  There are a few winners, but many losers.

Bitcoin's price bubble is still deflating and it's difficult to see what current product or event could see it reach $10+ again.


Another huge wave of interest, with lots of new money coming in. That's why a lot of people are trying to introduce bitcoins to the Occupy movement. The only problem is, those people have no money.

I think those in the Occupy movement DO have money.  They're likely mostly middle class.  The demonstrations are tame, and tame demonstrations are led by people with something to lose.  Why would the middle class be part of the Occupy movement?  Because they don't want to be poor!

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October 14, 2011, 03:59:09 AM
 #52

Quote
I think those in the Occupy movement DO have money.  They're likely mostly middle class.  The demonstrations are tame, and tame demonstrations are led by people with something to lose.  Why would the middle class be part of the Occupy movement?  Because they don't want to be poor!

+1

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October 14, 2011, 04:01:18 AM
 #53

After a never ending series of hacks, scams and security accidents Bitcoin is losing its market value even when the fundamentals appear to be sound.  Though I have faith in Bitcoin itself, I don't have any faith at all in the price anymore. 

(BFL)^2 < 0
zby
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October 27, 2011, 11:18:51 AM
 #54

New member signups on these forums have finally taken a decisive turn to the upside.  Yesterday there were 79, and today 82, and the day is not over yet.  82 would be the most since September 14th when there were 84 - nearly a month ago.


The numbers were up to over 100, but now are back down, no breakout for now I guess.
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