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Author Topic: Breakout to the Upside Imminent  (Read 4289 times)
GoWest
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October 11, 2011, 11:27:26 PM
 #1

New member signups on these forums have finally taken a decisive turn to the upside.  Yesterday there were 79, and today 82, and the day is not over yet.  82 would be the most since September 14th when there were 84 - nearly a month ago.

Positive news coverage of Bitcoin is rampant, and the association with the Occupy Wall Street movement is giving us some serious exposure.  Something is in the air, and of course this is just speculation, but I think we're about to leave the $3.xx price for a good long time, if not forever.

Hide your kids, hide your wife, and re-flash those mining rigs!


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October 11, 2011, 11:36:34 PM
 #2

Something is in the air, and of course this is just speculation, but I think we're about to leave the $3.xx price for a good long time, if not forever.

Hide your kids, hide your wife, and re-flash those mining rigs!



Oh yes, I have this feeling also. Hope these feeling become reality.

And hide your husband too, because bitcoin be coming through!
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October 11, 2011, 11:45:37 PM
 #3

Cool so if I create a sockpuppet account today I can increase this "imminent uptrend" by 33%  Roll Eyes

No... I'm not really following you...

In case IHBT congratulations  Undecided

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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October 11, 2011, 11:49:31 PM
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Cool so if I create a sockpuppet account today I can increase this "imminent uptrend" by 33%  Roll Eyes

No... I'm not really following you...

In case IHBT congratulations  Undecided

I am afraid you are right. Nothing is moving. It is all pretty much dead.  Undecided

Only thing that could possibly save us right now is a big company getting bitcoin adoption started etc.
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October 11, 2011, 11:52:09 PM
 #5

Cool so if I create a sockpuppet account today I can increase this "imminent uptrend" by 33%  Roll Eyes

No... I'm not really following you...

In case IHBT congratulations  Undecided

I am afraid you are right. Nothing is moving. It is all pretty much dead.  Undecided

Only thing that could possibly save us right now is a big company getting bitcoin adoption started etc.

What, like Kiva or something?

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October 12, 2011, 12:54:32 AM
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lol where is the chart-porn!? ;o)
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October 12, 2011, 01:33:41 AM
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lol where is the chart-porn!? ;o)

It's all crap!!

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October 12, 2011, 03:15:05 AM
 #8

Something is in the air, and of course this is just speculation, but I think we're about to leave the $3.xx price for a good long time, if not forever.

$19: We're about to break 20 again, expect a rally soon.

$15: The rally back to 30 and beyond is about to happen.

$14: It's been steady at 14 for weeks, rally should be coming.

$12: It cannot go any lower.

$10: BUY, BUY, BUY

$9: We should hover back to 12 soon, and then rally back up.

$6: This is the point where people will start buying, expect it to got to hundreds within weeks/months

$5: It cannot drop lower.

$4: Many miners have shut down their rigs, expect a rally.

$3.90: It will go up soon...

I keep lurking here because this is really a lesson in self-deception,. Before you say anything, no, I'm not trolling, I've been here for a while, I rarely post, and I'm truly very interested in BTC for various reasons. Yet, I'm just baffled by the almost religious bullishness.
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October 12, 2011, 03:46:48 AM
 #9

Something is in the air, and of course this is just speculation, but I think we're about to leave the $3.xx price for a good long time, if not forever.

$19: We're about to break 20 again, expect a rally soon.

$15: The rally back to 30 and beyond is about to happen.

$14: It's been steady at 14 for weeks, rally should be coming.

$12: It cannot go any lower.

$10: BUY, BUY, BUY

$9: We should hover back to 12 soon, and then rally back up.

$6: This is the point where people will start buying, expect it to got to hundreds within weeks/months

$5: It cannot drop lower.

$4: Many miners have shut down their rigs, expect a rally.

$3.90: It will go up soon...

I keep lurking here because this is really a lesson in self-deception,. Before you say anything, no, I'm not trolling, I've been here for a while, I rarely post, and I'm truly very interested in BTC for various reasons. Yet, I'm just baffled by the almost religious bullishness.

I wouldn't go as far as to say religious bullishness.  There have been many times BTC was poised to raise in value and just about every time there is something negative to stop it (i.e. hacks, massive sell-off, thieves,  supposed ripoffs, bunk exchanges, or just general FUD).  Even now one of the first things you see when you search is the Allinvain post (which I still do not believe BTW).  Value started to drop right after the supposed Allinvain theft and continued down after the Mt.Gox hack, every time it starts to stabilize something else happens.  

BTC has its value in many ways...I don't think the USD value accurately represents that.  Many are looking for something exactly like this but because of difficulty buying (cannot purchase by standard means i.e. paypal, credit card...the fact that you have to do a bank transfer scares a lot away) or because they read some horrible article they get scared away.  I am not typically a conspiracy type person but I do believe in this case there are entities which do not want BTC to succeed.  They have every reason to be scared, BTC has valid uses which cause them to lose money.  I would never think BTC will replace any currency (USD or otherwise) but credit card companies and those who collect exchange fees could lose money for sure if use became widespread.  Those who control the transactions do not want another parallel method of payment reducing their income.  Not only that but the banking system and US govt. have been working very hard to track and verify every bank transaction.  If you deposit/withdraw more than a couple thousand cash your bank is required to file a report to the govt., if you deposit more than 5k you have to fill out paperwork.  This is to stop drugs/terrorism/money laundering, just like every other freedom you have lost it has been brought about by FUD.  

They are working very hard to get rid of cash in general...why would they allow BTC to succeed.  Best to destroy it before it gets a foothold.

Just today for instance there is a PopSci article about Bitcoin (actually about tracking Satoshi)...it appears on the frontpage but when you click the link it is gone.  Just like everything else related to BTC as soon as there is a possibility for promotion it disappears.
(edit: I emailed the author and he explained it was a bad link and it is fixed)
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October 12, 2011, 05:31:38 AM
 #10

I think the parallel to religious fanaticism is perfectly appropriate. What the OP posted is exactly true. I've watched the forum for some time, cried out about how clearly it was where Bitcoin is heading, and then gave up and stopped coning altogether. Really, the one thing that has me coming back to read is to see the self-deception in action as well as the circle-jerks that occur among the pious. Its better than any Sociological field study I did during my college years.

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October 12, 2011, 11:44:47 AM
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I think the parallel to religious fanaticism is perfectly appropriate. What the OP posted is exactly true. I've watched the forum for some time, cried out about how clearly it was where Bitcoin is heading, and then gave up and stopped coning altogether. Really, the one thing that has me coming back to read is to see the self-deception in action as well as the circle-jerks that occur among the pious. Its better than any Sociological field study I did during my college years.

Here's something for your PhD: Someone just bought 6000 BTC.  Hide your kids, hide your wife!

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October 12, 2011, 12:09:36 PM
 #12

And there will be more, attracted by the low price. Now lot's of people afford to have 20 coins. it's like buying silver. You don't need to buy tons. Buy some ounces, store them and if enough people buy a few, everybody will be rich. Wealth exists in the world, but if it's distributed to 5% of the people this means POORNESS. If you redistribute it (of course, not equally), everybody's standard's rise.

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October 12, 2011, 12:58:28 PM
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Well, the difficulty is going to have the biggest drop ever tomorrow by more than 160000 and the drop size is growing.

That and add the merged mining this week, I would guess the miners willing sell for less in the future, not more.

At $4 dollars, it is at a discount I suppose. Definitely easier now for people to own some of their own.
I want to see a rally already..



 
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October 12, 2011, 01:03:46 PM
 #14

We won't see a rally.  If there is one, you will see lots of people dumping their coins once it rises enough.  Miners who are holding for a better price (most just watch for peaks).  Speculators who bought in at the last dip will be looking to unload their tens of thousands of coins as well.  Same pattern as always, slight rally, everyone dumps their coins, it find a new low, goes back up a bit as people buy in expecting a swing, it swings, people sell their cheaply bought coins.  There are a lot of coins out there waiting to sell the minute the price starts going up a bit, because the past few months have shown that a price above 5 dollars is not sustainable.  It's beginning to look like 4 isn't either, time will tell. 

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October 12, 2011, 01:30:53 PM
 #15

Something is in the air, and of course this is just speculation, but I think we're about to leave the $3.xx price for a good long time, if not forever.

$19: We're about to break 20 again, expect a rally soon.

$15: The rally back to 30 and beyond is about to happen.

$14: It's been steady at 14 for weeks, rally should be coming.

$12: It cannot go any lower.

$10: BUY, BUY, BUY

$9: We should hover back to 12 soon, and then rally back up.

$6: This is the point where people will start buying, expect it to got to hundreds within weeks/months

$5: It cannot drop lower.

$4: Many miners have shut down their rigs, expect a rally.

$3.90: It will go up soon...

I keep lurking here because this is really a lesson in self-deception,. Before you say anything, no, I'm not trolling, I've been here for a while, I rarely post, and I'm truly very interested in BTC for various reasons. Yet, I'm just baffled by the almost religious bullishness.

I wouldn't go as far as to say religious bullishness.  There have been many times BTC was poised to raise in value and just about every time there is something negative to stop it (i.e. hacks, massive sell-off, thieves,  supposed ripoffs, bunk exchanges, or just general FUD).  Even now one of the first things you see when you search is the Allinvain post (which I still do not believe BTW).  Value started to drop right after the supposed Allinvain theft and continued down after the Mt.Gox hack, every time it starts to stabilize something else happens. 

This... BTC is plagued by scammers and hackers, who are the main reason why the price is so low.

(BFL)^2 < 0
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October 12, 2011, 02:52:41 PM
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$4: Many miners have shut down their rigs, expect a rally.


This part I agree with.  I don't think it'll be from $4 though...
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October 12, 2011, 03:02:10 PM
 #17

Why do we talk about being "saved" by a corporation? That's like waiting around for a "job creator" to rescue you. Bitcoin does not need any help, if it did, it would have no merit.
The price of bitcoins is irrelevant. If they are $100/ or $.01/, they are just value place-markers. Are nickels a failure because they are only worth $.05?     

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October 12, 2011, 03:05:30 PM
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Why do we talk about being "saved" by a corporation? That's like waiting around for a "job creator" to rescue you. Bitcoin does not need any help, if it did, it would have no merit.
The price of bitcoins is irrelevant. If they are $100/ or $.01/, they are just value place-markers. Are nickels a failure because they are only worth $.05?     

Yeah, but I bought at $14, so the price is a little bit relevant to me (I should have sold at $10, but then I though it'll be ok it's going to go up, then I thought $8 but then I remembered  'don;t invest anything you are not willing to lose', which I had, so then I thought fuck it. Please don't tell my wife)
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October 12, 2011, 03:18:13 PM
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Why do we talk about being "saved" by a corporation? That's like waiting around for a "job creator" to rescue you. Bitcoin does not need any help, if it did, it would have no merit.
The price of bitcoins is irrelevant. If they are $100/ or $.01/, they are just value place-markers. Are nickels a failure because they are only worth $.05?     

Yeah, but I bought at $14, so the price is a little bit relevant to me (I should have sold at $10, but then I though it'll be ok it's going to go up, then I thought $8 but then I remembered  'don;t invest anything you are not willing to lose', which I had, so then I thought fuck it. Please don't tell my wife)
It's painful to have bought at $14. As an investment vehicle, bitcoin is extremely risky asset. With large potential for upside gains and downside losses. You may still see profits in the future, especially after production is cut in half in 2013.

For others thinking about buying bitcoin, consider using it as a currency instead of an investment. The real power of BTC is fast, private buying/selling between regular people. Getting rich quick is only rarely going to happen in finance.   
P.S. I won't tell my wife either, just in case our wives talk.  Wink

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October 12, 2011, 03:30:49 PM
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Why do we talk about being "saved" by a corporation? That's like waiting around for a "job creator" to rescue you. Bitcoin does not need any help, if it did, it would have no merit.
The price of bitcoins is irrelevant. If they are $100/ or $.01/, they are just value place-markers. Are nickels a failure because they are only worth $.05?     

Yeah, but I bought at $14, so the price is a little bit relevant to me (I should have sold at $10, but then I though it'll be ok it's going to go up, then I thought $8 but then I remembered  'don;t invest anything you are not willing to lose', which I had, so then I thought fuck it. Please don't tell my wife)

And this, kids, is the first honest admission of a failed trader.  Also the reason we're still at $4.  Sunk cost fallacy in full swing.  Miners are investing their power bill, also not selling -- they're massively bullish on future price.   Those looking at unrealized losses are in the "denial" metal stage of post bubble.  The part where everyone convinces themselves to hold for the long term.

Saw it with my wife and her $80,000 in Lucent stock in 2001.  "It's down, I can't sell now." "It's just a correction." "Oh well, I'm in this for the long term, it'll recover." "I'm down more than 50%, that's a huge loss.  I'll be writing it off for years." "It can't go any lower, it's still a great company." "I'll just keep holding." "Ok, it's not worth selling now..."  "You trade garbage like this all day long, you deal with it.  I can't even look at this piece of shit any more." 

I thought it was a very good lesson.  $80k of unrealized gains may not be a lot of money for many, but for a 26 year old it would have been a *very* noticeable chunk of her yearly take home.  The ~$5k by the time she was ready to sell not so much.  Over the next decade she's become a much, much better trader and investor as a result.  Unfortunately, the tiny amounts people have invested in bitcoin won't be teaching the same kind of lesson I don't think.


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