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Author Topic: NASDAQ vs BTC  (Read 1206 times)
pent
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October 12, 2011, 01:32:01 AM
 #1

I've seen this before...

NASDAQ 1992 - 2002


USD/BTC 2010 - 2011

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October 12, 2011, 04:43:27 AM
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so? Huh
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/images/lancaster102102a.jpg

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October 12, 2011, 05:31:11 AM
 #3

Bubbles rarely reinflate.  They inflate elsewhere, but not at the original source.  Investors hoping for double digit bitcoin values had better heed this advice.

Despite the best efforts of the entire Federal Reserve, the US stock markets are no higher now than they were a decade ago.  Who does bitcoin have to pump in essentially free cash?

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October 12, 2011, 06:38:02 AM
 #4

You can always find example that fits your bias. One way is to take the Nasdaq and say that the run up to 2000 was a bubble (and I tend to agree that it will not recover to new highs in the next 4-7 years)

Another way is to take the SMI (swiss stock index, and you can find many other examples). This index made strong new highs after what was no "bubble", just a big correction. I think BTC is more like the SMI and even stronger longterm.


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October 12, 2011, 10:26:38 AM
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You can always find example that fits your bias. One way is to take the Nasdaq and say that the run up to 2000 was a bubble (and I tend to agree that it will not recover to new highs in the next 4-7 years)

Indeed.  It's always possible to find data to back your bias.  I present, the Japanese stock market.

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EN225&t=my

That's one hell of a bubble, still very much burst after 20 years.

Gold's 1980 peak still hasn't been equaled, when adjusted for inflation.  Gold may eventually go higher than ~$2700 (official US inflation figures) or ~$10,000+ (using more extreme 'real' inflation figures), but if a 40 year old trader in 1980 needs to wait 35+ years for that to happen they'll be retired or dead by then.  The bubble may reinflate, but it doesn't do those that saw the original burst any good.

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October 12, 2011, 07:30:46 PM
 #6

exactly.
And this is why one should look at other tools like indicators, volume, elliott waves, etc - and not only the price.

In any case, we will wait and see who is right: You: Then we should not see a strong rise beyond 10 $, or me: then we should see new all time highs in the next 12 months.

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October 13, 2011, 08:24:05 AM
 #7

You can always find example that fits your bias.

There are even automated tools to help you find a series to match any curve:
https://www.google.com/trends/correlate/draw
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October 13, 2011, 12:03:36 PM
 #8

You can always find example that fits your bias. One way is to take the Nasdaq and say that the run up to 2000 was a bubble (and I tend to agree that it will not recover to new highs in the next 4-7 years)

Another way is to take the SMI (swiss stock index, and you can find many other examples). This index made strong new highs after what was no "bubble", just a big correction. I think BTC is more like the SMI and even stronger longterm.



gotta love your optimism btctrader Smiley

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October 13, 2011, 12:17:48 PM
 #9

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