Apparantly mining is following the Gartner Curve as well

[ElectricMucus]

(In case anybody wonders the timeframes and popularity are often not in scale Trough of Disillusionment could be longer, higher or shorter...)

[dual6990s]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8c/Standard_deviation_diagram.svg

fixed that for you.

[ElectricMucus]

And your basis of assumption on this? 

'Oh noes bitcoin is a bubble!111' ?

Mine: every innovation so far has followed this curve, bitcoin is no different. Price follows expectations and mining follows price.
But the question remains: Why are you still here if you think bitcoin will ultimately fail?

[dual6990s]

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/growth.png

Perhaps the abundance of alternative and newer forms with diverse variables.  Perhaps the seemingly endless instability in every part of bitcoins besides the process of blockchains and coin mining itself.

Maybe just that seeing the bf3 beta release date drop a significant number of miners, and that a look at google trends vs money/day is almost identical.

Rest assured I am long past being out of coin making, selling or anything of the like.  I am just here to watch the reaction to truth.

Or rather you would put me to death like the church did to galileo; make no mistake at this point bitcoin is running on faith.



Do not mistake my commentary as a statement on crypto-currency which I may be inclined to believe such a graph you propose would follow.  This particular paradigm is reaching it's death as a plethra of diverse alternatives exist.

[ElectricMucus]

This particular paradigm is reaching it's death as a plethra of diverse alternatives exist.

such as?
I'll assume you do not mean the 'alternate cryptocurrencies' as so far every single instance has failed.

[dual6990s]

Ah yes, the paradigm of "bitcoin" not of ixcoin namecoin any of the others.  The concept is a very alluring one that cannot be denied.  I am specifically referring btc, and look forward to other mediums in the future (that have yet to have legislation being created against them).

 Not only for adoption, but also for integration into existing systems of currency and trade.

[ElectricMucus]

ok you got me 

IHBT
*plonk*

[dual6990s]

not trolling, that bell curve is most definitely my prediction for bitcoins.

Just pointing out that Gartner Curves are about technologies.  Your argument is faulted in that one could say "Pentium" does not follow the Gartner Curve, but "multicore processors" do.  One is a "brand", one is a "technology". 

Cryptocurrency is a methodology ie technology.
bitcoin is a specific instance of said methodology ie brand.

[error]

not trolling, that bell curve is most definitely my prediction for bitcoins.

Just pointing out that Gartner Curves are about technologies.  Your argument is faulted in that one could say "Pentium" does not follow the Gartner Curve, but "multicore processors" do.  One is a "brand", one is a "technology". 

Cryptocurrency is a methodology ie technology.
bitcoin is a specific instance of said methodology ie brand.

What does this have to do with the OP? You're describing something entirely unrelated.

[dual6990s]

trying to clarify.  Apologies for being clear.

I do recall now why i don't frequent this religious institution

[gmaxwell]

(In case anybody wonders the timeframes and popularity are often not in scale Trough of Disillusionment could be longer, higher or shorter...)

This is meaningless graph mysticism. I might as well predict the behavior using chicken bones.

As you say, the scale can be whatever—  .... so if we cut off first couple years, which are obvious irrelevant in your fit we get this graph:



And that graph isn't at all indicative of the pattern you're describing— sure, perhaps with the right scaling it someday will be, but it's not really suggestive of it at the moment.

Moreover, if you take the hash rate at various points in the past where it when up fast and then down a bit e.g. when the "mystery miner" went inactive you could have overlaid that gartner curve exactly as you've done now and it would have looked just as fitting and also been a completely inaccurate description of the future behavior.

If you want to talk about the psycho-social technology adoption curves you'd do best to look at charts of active clients, exchange volume, and blockchain traffic—  as the hard economic of mining today (e.g. the non-trivial cost of purchasing specialized equipment and the energy cost required to run it) probably dominate market exuberance as factors in determining the overall hash rate.  The kind of technology gartner is talking about isn't machines for printing money (though with slim margins).

[ElectricMucus]

Yeah whatever, just wait and see.

Oh btw, in case of bitcoin there is a fractal pattern of such curves and this is just the largest one yet. It is the hype of "FOSS gpu mining". There will be another one for other technologies which take longer and will get higher.

[dual6990s]

Yeah whatever, just wait and see.

Oh btw, in case of bitcoin there is a fractal pattern of such curves and this is just the largest one yet. It is the hype of "FOSS gpu mining". There will be another one for other technologies which take longer and will get higher.

"Yeah whatever" is an emotional response, we are trying to bring logic to your idea, this is not a personal attack.  Your belief is founded on virtually no facts, just a visual element...

You seem to be confused as to which "technology" are you are talking about...

Are you addressing Crypto-currency technology? 
Bitcoin as a technology?
Hardware capable of simultaneous vector flops?
 Adoption rates in the case of bitcoin often serve a dual purpose,  for those of us that mined graphics card hardware... It serves two purposes. The bitcoin aspect, and having the card when the mining stops.

One of the reasons I believe there was such an adoption rate, was the market increases in bitcoin value over a short period, the interest from niche investments for monetary gain, and the possibility of getting top end hardware for no cost outside of electricity (which even at this difficulty, solo mining is not cost effective if you are paying for electricity).

Firstly, what "technology" are you addressing.

Secondly, if it is about the actual "technology" of simultaneous vector calculations, is that not a configuration of available hardware schemes, noting that due to Nvidias method of construction mining is not really a profitable option... hence, Would miners who have access to said hardware, really invest in specialized hardware with no function should the whole crypto currency crash tommorow? (especially given the slowing trends, and endless price drop values, multiple hacks, and problems on top of problems)

Thirdly, based on your seeming emotional response, I greatly doubt your investment in your belief is outside of "wishing".

[Sargasm]

All this speculation is really pretty funny to me.

The actual value of a currency has to do with confidence AND liquidity.

IE: while the price of BTC might have fallen a long way, it is still relatively liquid and can be used to transact business, its Variance is in excess of most relative currency markets, but that doesn't necessarily have ANYTHING to do with its viability as a currency.

If more people and businesses choose to find ways to transact business in bitcoins, their demand and relative liquidity will rise and the relative price based on USD will go up. 

Make no mistake, this is a BTC depression.  It is a natural cycle that all hard currencies go through.

To strictly equate the price of the currency as a measurement of the viability of the currency is laughable.  The viability of the currency depends on participation.  Yes, if everyone were to get out of bitcoins, they would be worthless.

That would mean 10's of millions in lost investments on the part of participants.  Investments that are not very expensive to maintain in order to 'stay in'.  Those people aren't going to be scared off by speculation.

Go ahead and speak of doomsday though, because dimwits will sell low and I'll get my currency cheap.

Currency is a medium for transaction.  IF it succeeds as an efficient mode of communicated value, it will continue to exist.  Until such a time that no man gives the currency any value (not likely).

The reality is that it is hard to say what will ultimately happen, but since the broad trend with BTC is adoption, the likelihood is that the currency will solidify and as such, appreciate.

[dual6990s]

  It is a natural cycle that all hard currencies go through.

Hard currency has seen nothing to the likes of bitcoin7, mt.gox, and cosby coins. Confidence was great when I purchased 1k btc at 0.50$ and sold at 31$.  But incase you have not seen bitcoin7, mt.gox, and cosby coins... There is not much left to loose faith in.  Bitcoins are already being replaced slowly by systems allowing for faster maturation and therefore (hopefully) a sooner stability. 

Bitcoin has had a hard life so far, let us all take a lesson about magic quotes in SQL, ahem i mean "independent contractors".  China and several other countries have already outlawed bitcoins.  US legislation is soon to follow, provided bitcoins still prove a threat.  And now that I have seen yet again another drop in value for more weeks then I can now remember, the threat is lowered, as consumer confidence takes yet another blow.


The golden days are behind us, this at the very least you must admit.  Lowered difficulty means more supply, more hacking and price drops means far less demand.