Bitcoin adoption rate as of today, could it be 3%?

[CryptoPanda]

I was reading http://thegenesisblock.com/mapping-bitcoin-adoption-a-global-perspective/
article about the bitcoin adoption rate from almost an year ago

so in the developed countries adoption have been up to 0.5% a year ago.
And thats just the bitcoin-qt downloads. When we add the web wallets and the others I think it's safe to tripple that. So, we've got 1.5% one year ago, won't be surprise if it doubled since then to 3%.
That's percent just for the developed countries though. Worldwide would be much less.
Still a lot higher than I thought.

What other data we've got so we can make better estimation?

[BitcoinBobbeh]

At or under 1% worldwide, even in developed countries.

The room for growth is basically all of it.

[hellscabane]

I'm not sure if there really is a lot of data for underdeveloped countries; after all even internet usage in those countries is very unknown.

Personally, I'd be surprised if worldwide, we've scratched .1%. I can believe that in developed countries we've hit up to 1%, but to total everything and come up with a 1% figure worldwide is too much of a stretch to me.

By the way I like that article, I gave a shout out to the city I've come to call home!

[LiteCoinGuy]

At or under 1% worldwide, even in developed countries.

The room for growth is basically all of it.

yep, under 1% i would say.

[MakeBelieve]

Yes under 1% has got my vote.

[davida]

So technically all 5 answers are correct... Or in my case, only the last one!

[vpitcher07]

I'd say under 1% actually use it. Probably more than 5% have heard about it but have never used it. Every single one of my friends and family knows about it because I always talk about it...

[BittBurger]

Is it safe to look at "QT Downloads" ?  Considering I have downloaded it probably 5 times myself?

Maybe we look at QT downloads and cut it by about 70%, to get a more accurate number.

Way under 1% is my vote.

-B-

[gentlemand]

Well below 1%. Probably less than 0.1%.

Downloading QT or opening a web wallet is one thing. Actually installing QT is one step upwards. Actually getting a hold of coins is a big leap for most.

[pening]

Elsewhere on this forum the distribution of Bitcoin has been discussed.  One analysis suggests 2 million people hold bitcoin, of which over half hold less than 0.1.  Another suggests only 500k users, based on a raw number of addresses.

Either way, these indicate the 0.5% in the OP is way overestimated.  In fact the link doesnt even say that, thats for Finland.  The average is something like 0.35%.  The same link measuring downloads pulls up a number of about 2 million... by my reckoning thats 0.02% of the developed world (excluding China).

Short version:  the poll options are a factor or two out.

[exocytosis]

Probably less than 0.05 %.

[Gabi]

Definitely under 1%

Probably under 0.1% too.

[keithers]

I would say way under 1%. I think it was only 0.1% of just Visa as of this month.

[Beliathon]

Buying into bitcoin (or any crypto, really) at this stage in the game will within 10 years yield ROI's with many, many zeroes on the end.

[CryptoPanda]

Less than 0.1 %.

I don't think the number of users can be determined from the number of QT downloads or the number of web based wallets.  A large proportion of this would be established users doing multiple downloads / creating multiple wallets, or people in the general public creating wallets after reading bitcoin hyped articles in the media but then quickly losing interest and never bothering to use them.

agreed

[CryptoPanda]

At less than .01% can you imagine the price at even 2%?

no