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Author Topic: What would happen if MtGox enables withdraws?  (Read 927 times)
Zotia (OP)
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February 23, 2014, 04:07:29 AM
 #1

I was thinking, if MtGox enables withdraws, the cheap coins at MtGox will be able to flee to other exchanges, thus lowering the price of BTC.

Am I wrong?

What do you guys think?


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1664370410
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Mortimer
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February 23, 2014, 04:15:33 AM
 #2

Another one of these threads?  Try spending 2 minutes looking through the existing threads and you will find at least 3 like this.
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February 23, 2014, 06:18:44 AM
 #3

If Gox enables withdrawals by Monday/Tuesday, which the markets are already anticipating (thus the price is $620 on stamp now) the price will shoot up back to $800+ range imo.

Sure alot of people will withdraw their BTC from Gox into Bitstamp or other exchanges or wallets, but that doesn't mean that everyone is going to sell all at once, also in the rally there is going to be alot of buyers. There is going to be alot of profit taking from those who took risks transferring fiat buying low but those are minority.

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February 23, 2014, 06:32:02 AM
 #4

No, the markets are not anticipating it, because nobody knows what it means to the markets. firstly, nobody can find a good reason why all the exchanges are 'following' mount gox apart from 'investor mood', and nobody can justify why the price would rise against arbitrage on all other exchanges.

here is some logic - correlation is not causation.

optimistic bulls will believe anything to convince themselves that they didnt buy too high - 'oh gox is pulling us down it's their fault'.

The truth is that there is no evidence that the markets have not been fundamentally bearish for the last few months none the less, and that gox has only compounded it's own problems.

some suckers might buy when withdrawals are fixed, but it will be an epic bull trap. the market needs to correct to 400.

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February 23, 2014, 06:32:24 AM
 #5

If Gox enables withdrawals by Monday/Tuesday, which the markets are already anticipating (thus the price is $620 on stamp now) the price will shoot up back to $800+ range imo.

Sure alot of people will withdraw their BTC from Gox into Bitstamp or other exchanges or wallets, but that doesn't mean that everyone is going to sell all at once, also in the rally there is going to be alot of buyers. There is going to be alot of profit taking from those who took risks transferring fiat buying low but those are minority.
Really? It's going to fly right past every major resistance trendline and ema including 1D, 3D, and 1W, right away, all because of gox withdrawals? Are you nuts?
porcupine87
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February 23, 2014, 11:08:29 AM
 #6

If Gox enables withdrawals by Monday/Tuesday, which the markets are already anticipating (thus the price is $620 on stamp now) the price will shoot up back to $800+ range imo.

Sure alot of people will withdraw their BTC from Gox into Bitstamp or other exchanges or wallets, but that doesn't mean that everyone is going to sell all at once, also in the rally there is going to be alot of buyers. There is going to be alot of profit taking from those who took risks transferring fiat buying low but those are minority.

I think it will not change much. Maybe the stamp price will go back to 700 or 750. But I think it is unlikely, that the Gox people would sell their btc. I think many of them will store them in a save place.

But you would lose a slight chance for big profit. Imagine you make a sell order at 2000$ all the time and one day some manic buy 10 000btc at once Cheesy

"Morality, it could be argued, represents the way that people would like the world to work - whereas economics represents how it actually does work." Freakonomics
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February 23, 2014, 11:22:00 AM
 #7

All that will happen is that the prices between Gox and the other exchanges will get much closer to each other.  If fiat withdrawals are not enabled I can easily see a return to Gox having higher prices than the other exchanges, but of course, you'll just have Gox USD, just like all you have now are Gox BTC.
rograz
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February 23, 2014, 02:03:02 PM
 #8

the price will shoot up back to $800+ range imo.

I think you vastly underestimate the buying frenzy that will start when they enable withdraws, unless they enforce some pretty draconian withdraw limits for the first few days/weeks.

Most people on gox who still holds coins will simply run for the door when/if it opens. Who is going to sell for goxusd that you cant get out? If/When they resolve this the value of goxusd will be even lower than it was before the shutdown.
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February 23, 2014, 03:43:48 PM
 #9

If I had bitcoins on MtGox (which I don't) I'd be itching to get them out to store in my own wallet. Don't trust third parties with your valuable bitcoins, its not worth the risk.
cypherdoc
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February 23, 2014, 03:51:52 PM
 #10


some suckers might buy when withdrawals are fixed, but it will be an epic bull trap. the market needs to correct to 400.


wow, that's some pretty precise logic you have there.

how's this; the gox market has already corrected to below 100.  it's OVER.
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