[2018-08-06]Don't Expect New Bitcoin Highs in 2018

[Portal_Network]

Tuur Demeester is an economist and investor.

The following article references an opinion and is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for that.

Despite an already six month cool-off period, for 2018 we see more sideways and downside potential in the bitcoin price due to sluggish retail demand, hesitation from institutions and a current market cap that seems too high relative to the activity occurring on available blockchains.

Many investors and advisors are on record stating that $5,700 was the bottom in bitcoin for this year, and that higher prices lie ahead. While we are very bullish on bitcoin's long-term prospects, we do heed caution for more short-term price optimism.

To find the starting point of the historic parabolic rally in bitcoin that ended at $20,000 we have to go as far back as August 2015, when bitcoin traded at below $200. This past rally was a stupendous, historic move. Even in secular bull markets, the collective of economic actors need time to absorb the information embedded in its characteristic high volume rallies.

As I've indicated in my 2018 outlook, I think chances are high for this year to be remembered as a shakeout year: a lemon market in altcoins, regulators catching up and infrastructure growing pains.

Short-term bearish signs
Since January, the bitcoin mining hashrate (aggregate computations per second made to secure the network ) has tripled, which means that a huge amount of new or more efficient mining rigs have come online. In combination with declining prices, this means that miners who weren't able to upgrade their machines or find cheaper electricity have been faced with a steep decline in profitability, a 90% drop in 7 months (altcoins have faced similar or steeper declines).

With profit margins under heavy pressure, it's not unlikely that miners are and will stay responsible for a significant amount of selling in the market.

See more: https://www.coindesk.com/dont-expect-new-bitcoin-price-highs-in-2018/

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[Kakmakr]

Ok, so he is saying with the increase in the hashing power, more miners are forced to sell more coins to turn a profit and that adds more coins to the supply side. 

This was a good prediction from 2017, for 2018 - https://www.anythingcrypto.com/guides/bitcoin-difficulty-2018 and it also gives us a good prediction of what will happen with Bitcoin Mining Reward Halfing in 2020. 

[buwaytress]

You don't say? Doesn't take Sherlock to tell people not to expect ATH with less than 5 months left. Even in a bull run somehow manages to kick off by September, it won't have enough time to gather the necessary steam. Happy to be proven wrong, but happier to see Bitcoin find a comfortable average spot just below 7.5k to anchor at for a while.

Ok, so he is saying with the increase in the hashing power, more miners are forced to sell more coins to turn a profit and that adds more coins to the supply side. 

This was a good prediction from 2017, for 2018 - https://www.anythingcrypto.com/guides/bitcoin-difficulty-2018 and it also gives us a good prediction of what will happen with Bitcoin Mining Reward Halfing in 2020. 

Yeah, exactly. Would have been a pretty decent prediction to have been made at the end of 2017/early 2018 when all of this seemed implausible. Coming out in August to say this when Bitcoin is at 35% of its ATH is pretty low brow. Since when were experts afraid to make bold predictions in this space anyway yeah?

[Kemarit]

I agree. You don't need to be a rocket scientist to understand that Bitcoin will not achieved any all-time-high this year. And I don't understand why people are making it too complicated. $7000 is still good and strong price IMHO. Perhaps newbie investors are still in the denial stage, and still very positive that we can make a run for it. If we ever goes for new all-time-high starting today, it will be a bubble, and we all know what happens if such bubble forms again. So realistically, its not possible but personally, I'm fine with the price going around $7000-$10000 at the end of year.

[hatshepsut93]

You don't say? Doesn't take Sherlock to tell people not to expect ATH with less than 5 months left. Even in a bull run somehow manages to kick off by September, it won't have enough time to gather the necessary steam. Happy to be proven wrong, but happier to see Bitcoin find a comfortable average spot just below 7.5k to anchor at for a while.

And yet so many "experts" and people who have business in crypto have been claiming since the crash that we'll go to the moon at the end of this year. And it seems like a lot of noobs believe that, probably because they've baught above the current price, or maybe because they are just so naive and believe everything that they read.

$7000 is still good and strong price IMHO.

Exactly, those who bought 1 year ago or earlier are in huge profit. Bitcoin now is stronger than ever and people who think that it's dying are just silly.

[jrrsparkles]

I agree. You don't need to be a rocket scientist to understand that Bitcoin will not achieved any all-time-high this year. And I don't understand why people are making it too complicated. $7000 is still good and strong price IMHO. Perhaps newbie investors are still in the denial stage, and still very positive that we can make a run for it. If we ever goes for new all-time-high starting today, it will be a bubble, and we all know what happens if such bubble forms again. So realistically, its not possible but personally, I'm fine with the price going around $7000-$10000 at the end of year.

Yes,no need to be an economist or analyst to say about these predictions.I will be happy if the price of bitcoin hits $12000 but gor now it looks highly impossible since the price again falling just above $7000 now maybe we will see some fall again because of ETFs speculation by the investors and traders.

[AXELNetwork]

Well the experts have been wrong before about the price of Bitcoin. What do they know?

[vy99]

It'll probably be hard to get the ATH this year but going past $10k should happen.

[mazdafunsun]

This is rational view.

I would like to see price stabilase in some level, it would indicate that people who are here only for short term speculation is not interested any more and finally market could start to recover slowly and potenitally shift focus more to tech not only prices and makeing fast buck.

[1BTC EQUALS 1CAR]

It is totally obvious when you base on the chart. We can't create a FOMO again because those noobs have already bought bitcoin last year and they treat is as their greatest mistake so no more new money coming in this time. Stop dreaming about $50k guys because even there's a lot of good news that has came, it did not increase the price of bitcoin past $10k.