BAKKT: Road to $100,000+ starts in november?

[gentlemand]

I'm interested in how many of these grand plans will survive a lengthy period of nothingness and gloom.

Circle said they were throwing in Bitcoin retail due to low interest in 2016.

https://www.coindesk.com/blockchain-industry-circle-bitcoin-shift-stop-payments/

Funnily enough that wasn't too long before things really started to move. I wonder how much profit they turned down there.

We could well be looking at little to no action until 2020. Operations like this could be eating millions per week or month with little prospect of a return on the horizon. It's also impossible to predict when things go mad again.

Presumably someone involved has planned for this. I wonder if all investors will be happy to swallow it for as long as it takes.

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[holzer]

The ETF approval in August 10 was also seen as the ultimate step to turn the market bullish, although everybody was saying the the ETF news are just hype and the chances to pass now are slim.
And the result? The ETF was postponed and Bitcoin have lost more 500$ in less than 10 hours.

Of course the market reacted on this news, most people think this is the end of story for BTC ETF, but is is just postponed for September and it will be probably postponed for December and then for next year. We now see that only reason for reaching 8000$+ was because of ETF speculation, and BAKKT project for the time being has no effect on price. The reason for that can be just because this is something that will not really succeed or media have not yet started to pump the news and creating FOMO.

By what is posted in OP this is much bigger then ETF, but what's with the permissions - is this project need approval from some agency or they can implement this project without special approvals?

I think this BAKKT thing doesn't not require the same permissions from the SEC to get started as the ETF does, and basically the end result is similar: it allows people to get exposure to BTC even if they are computer illiterates but have money an understand Bitcoin is a must have in any 2018 financial portfolio.

The ETF getting postponed is very obvious. I predict we are not going to have ETF this year, or next year. 2020? we'll see. I just don't see how Bitcoin will ever meet the required criteria for the SEC to approve the ETF. The main point of Bitcoin is that it cannot be regulated and it doesn't need the approval of anyone to exist and function, so this is against the ETF ever getting approved. This fact also flies past the investor's head that are getting into BTC because of the ETF news. Once all of these ETF-dependant investors-speculator are gone, we'll be better off long term even if we end up with a lower price in the short-mid term.

If you are going to speculate with the price short-mid term you better pay attention to these news because they obviously matter and have the power to move the price whether we like it or not. It would be only delusional to think they don't have the power to manipulate the price at these time ranges. On a long term 10+ year obviously it escapes everyone's control.

This is what I don't understand about this market. Bitcoin pumps on the idea that ETF is coming. Bitcoin dumps when ETF decision gets delayed. BAKKT get announced that not only does everythung the ETF would do but also partners with huge retailers who will help promote adoption and the price tanks? Reminds me of 2014 when lots of good news was happening but had no effect on the price.

[gentlemand]

This is what I don't understand about this market. Bitcoin pumps on the idea that ETF is coming. Bitcoin dumps when ETF decision gets delayed. BAKKT get announced that not only does everythung the ETF would do but also partners with huge retailers who will help promote adoption and the price tanks? Reminds me of 2014 when lots of good news was happening but had no effect on the price.

Have you not noticed the level of reading comprehension the average Bitcoiner displays?

Most don't get beyond the first two words of a headline, let alone the whole headline, let alone the beginning of an article, let alone a whole article. By the final sentence 99.7% of people will be long gone.

Digesting the Bakkt thing requires at least, ooh, a minute or two.

In most tiny minds ETF = MOOON and nothing but. And no ETF = DOOOOM.

[figmentofmyass]

I'm interested in how many of these grand plans will survive a lengthy period of nothingness and gloom.

Circle said they were throwing in Bitcoin retail due to low interest in 2016.

https://www.coindesk.com/blockchain-industry-circle-bitcoin-shift-stop-payments/

Funnily enough that wasn't too long before things really started to move. I wonder how much profit they turned down there.

yeah i remember laughing pretty hard over the timing of circle's exit back then. also funny to see them buying poloniex right when the bubble popped. these companies get caught up in the hype and exuberance just like us regular folk.

the better capitalized companies will weather the storm; others, less so.

Operations like this could be eating millions per week or month with little prospect of a return on the horizon. It's also impossible to predict when things go mad again.

i suspect these guys are in it for the long term. they say the company has been in planning for 14 months. with a november launch date, at least they've given themselves ~ a year since the bubble popped.

like you say, it's impossible to predict. it's possible (though unlikely perhaps) that we could have a situation like summer 2013 too.

[Wind_FURY]

This is what I don't understand about this market. Bitcoin pumps on the idea that ETF is coming. Bitcoin dumps when ETF decision gets delayed. BAKKT get announced that not only does everythung the ETF would do but also partners with huge retailers who will help promote adoption and the price tanks? Reminds me of 2014 when lots of good news was happening but had no effect on the price.

Have you not noticed the level of reading comprehension the average Bitcoiner displays?

Most don't get beyond the first two words of a headline, let alone the whole headline, let alone the beginning of an article, let alone a whole article. By the final sentence 99.7% of people will be long gone.

Digesting the Bakkt thing requires at least, ooh, a minute or two.

In most tiny minds ETF = MOOON and nothing but. And no ETF = DOOOOM.

But do you really believe that the "average Bitcoiner" as a collective move the market? No. We are sheep who lose if we buy and sell depending if it is "good news" or "bad news" because we act last.

As a counter-strategy, we should keep buying the dip. If market manipulators want to crash the market, so be it. We buy.

[Lucius]

I think this BAKKT thing doesn't not require the same permissions from the SEC to get started as the ETF does, and basically the end result is similar: it allows people to get exposure to BTC even if they are computer illiterates but have money an understand Bitcoin is a must have in any 2018 financial portfolio.

According to what can be read about BAKKT project its development started about 14 months ago. I assume that most of the things from the regulatory / legal side it's already done since they announced start in November. But by one article they still wait for approvals regarding institutional investors, although I do not know which agencies must give their approval.

This is what I don't understand about this market. Bitcoin pumps on the idea that ETF is coming. Bitcoin dumps when ETF decision gets delayed. BAKKT get announced that not only does everythung the ETF would do but also partners with huge retailers who will help promote adoption and the price tanks? Reminds me of 2014 when lots of good news was happening but had no effect on the price.

Have you not noticed the level of reading comprehension the average Bitcoiner displays?

Most don't get beyond the first two words of a headline, let alone the whole headline, let alone the beginning of an article, let alone a whole article. By the final sentence 99.7% of people will be long gone.

Digesting the Bakkt thing requires at least, ooh, a minute or two.

In most tiny minds ETF = MOOON and nothing but. And no ETF = DOOOOM.

I must unfortunately agree with your comment, the vast majority of people does not understand the difference between words "delay" and "denied". Just because of ignorance it is very easy to manipulate with crypto market, 2000$ up and down in a very short period of time based on ETF speculations is the most obvious example of this.

Lack of understanding BAKKT from ordinary users is actually expected, or maybe most of them think it is just one more "big thing" like futures or ETF which will not actually have any impact on the price. I think it will be difficult to return trust from ordinary small investors after last price correction - 14000$ lost in value in just few months is not easily forgotten.

[cellard]

The ETF approval in August 10 was also seen as the ultimate step to turn the market bullish, although everybody was saying the the ETF news are just hype and the chances to pass now are slim.
And the result? The ETF was postponed and Bitcoin have lost more 500$ in less than 10 hours.

Of course the market reacted on this news, most people think this is the end of story for BTC ETF, but is is just postponed for September and it will be probably postponed for December and then for next year. We now see that only reason for reaching 8000$+ was because of ETF speculation, and BAKKT project for the time being has no effect on price. The reason for that can be just because this is something that will not really succeed or media have not yet started to pump the news and creating FOMO.

By what is posted in OP this is much bigger then ETF, but what's with the permissions - is this project need approval from some agency or they can implement this project without special approvals?

I think this BAKKT thing doesn't not require the same permissions from the SEC to get started as the ETF does, and basically the end result is similar: it allows people to get exposure to BTC even if they are computer illiterates but have money an understand Bitcoin is a must have in any 2018 financial portfolio.

The ETF getting postponed is very obvious. I predict we are not going to have ETF this year, or next year. 2020? we'll see. I just don't see how Bitcoin will ever meet the required criteria for the SEC to approve the ETF. The main point of Bitcoin is that it cannot be regulated and it doesn't need the approval of anyone to exist and function, so this is against the ETF ever getting approved. This fact also flies past the investor's head that are getting into BTC because of the ETF news. Once all of these ETF-dependant investors-speculator are gone, we'll be better off long term even if we end up with a lower price in the short-mid term.

If you are going to speculate with the price short-mid term you better pay attention to these news because they obviously matter and have the power to move the price whether we like it or not. It would be only delusional to think they don't have the power to manipulate the price at these time ranges. On a long term 10+ year obviously it escapes everyone's control.

This is what I don't understand about this market. Bitcoin pumps on the idea that ETF is coming. Bitcoin dumps when ETF decision gets delayed. BAKKT get announced that not only does everythung the ETF would do but also partners with huge retailers who will help promote adoption and the price tanks? Reminds me of 2014 when lots of good news was happening but had no effect on the price.

I guess it just takes more time for this thing to become more widespread and understood on its nature. The word "ETF" is now a bit of a meme that makes investors think it's going to pump %1000 or so.

This BAKKT thing is too new, people still don't understand what it is. In the next couple of months news and most importantly, youtube videos will start popping left and right talking about it and just like ETF, BAKKT will become a bullish signal. So I don't expect big movements until October for a "buy the rumor" scenario. Will it be a "sell the news" scenario (sell on release)? we'll see about that.

[lightcar]

20,000 btc seems like a dream at this point.  With all this panic selling it  feels like we will never get back to those levels again.  The demand can't keep up with the supply since these miners are pumping out thousands of bitcoins everyday.  

[domasal]

Even if this is just hype it is exactly what we need right now, the bears are taking over bitcoin and if something like bakkt isn't done we might lose crypto completely

[Wild_Potato]

This is big, very big, similar to an ETF approved. You will be able to buy Bitcoin easily, all the computer illiterate boomers that just can't get their heads around downloading a wallet and securing the coins, will be able to get Bitcoin exposure. And they seem to be serious: No shitcoins, only Bitcoin.

meh, this sounds like more empty hype (just like the ETFs). "if you build it, they will come!"

you assume there is all this latent demand for bitcoin exposure that is waiting on the sidelines---why? it's not how the human mind (and therefore markets) work. people and institutions who want bitcoin exposure because of its astronomical gains don't say to themselves, "no problem, i'll just wait 2 years or 6 years for the right derivative security product to be approved by the SEC!" lol. and there isn't much volume in the regulated swaps and futures markets. what makes this so different?

also, it's not all good news. like you said, all this latent demand you think exists is from people who don't understand the point of BTC anyway. we like to think people understand the difference between "real assets" and "paper assets" but most don't. and if there is so much latent demand for paper bitcoins, as you suggest, that opens big opportunities for spot market manipulation, just like the gold markets: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4826941.msg43553439#msg43553439

Most people are missing this point and I don't understand why. Putting Bitcoin into the mainstream for mass adoption is the worst thing we could do next to allowing the banks to write papers on thin air and call them Bitcoin. These rascals are just trying to get their hands into the asset so they can create an infinitive supply of it. The whole principle of Bitcoin depends on its limited supply!

Also, just because it is implemented in November doesn't necessarily mean that it will start going on a monstrous bull run at that time. If speculators really believed it, it would be moving already.

[cellard]

This is big, very big, similar to an ETF approved. You will be able to buy Bitcoin easily, all the computer illiterate boomers that just can't get their heads around downloading a wallet and securing the coins, will be able to get Bitcoin exposure. And they seem to be serious: No shitcoins, only Bitcoin.

meh, this sounds like more empty hype (just like the ETFs). "if you build it, they will come!"

you assume there is all this latent demand for bitcoin exposure that is waiting on the sidelines---why? it's not how the human mind (and therefore markets) work. people and institutions who want bitcoin exposure because of its astronomical gains don't say to themselves, "no problem, i'll just wait 2 years or 6 years for the right derivative security product to be approved by the SEC!" lol. and there isn't much volume in the regulated swaps and futures markets. what makes this so different?

also, it's not all good news. like you said, all this latent demand you think exists is from people who don't understand the point of BTC anyway. we like to think people understand the difference between "real assets" and "paper assets" but most don't. and if there is so much latent demand for paper bitcoins, as you suggest, that opens big opportunities for spot market manipulation, just like the gold markets: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4826941.msg43553439#msg43553439

Most people are missing this point and I don't understand why. Putting Bitcoin into the mainstream for mass adoption is the worst thing we could do next to allowing the banks to write papers on thin air and call them Bitcoin. These rascals are just trying to get their hands into the asset so they can create an infinitive supply of it. The whole principle of Bitcoin depends on its limited supply!

Also, just because it is implemented in November doesn't necessarily mean that it will start going on a monstrous bull run at that time. If speculators really believed it, it would be moving already.

Im not sure what you are talking about. Excuse me but how the fuck is the government able to create an infinite supply out of it? just because they can issue whatever-government-backed scam as Bitcoin doesn't mean it's actual Bitcoin therefore as far as real Bitcoin is concerned the supply remains the same.

My point is, we CANNOT avoid the government doing whatever they want to do about it. So why not profit from their price manipulation? Long term physics remain: There are 21 million Bitcoins top, and fiat has unpayable debt clusterfuck sitting on top of it like a grey cloud. Long term it doesn't matter, short term it does because you can profit from it by buying and selling at the right times to increase your BTC count which is all that matters.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I think the break even price for miners is something like $5,000 per bitcoin so I can’t see the price dropping below that. They won’t allow it surely, all the big mining farms won’t allow it.

[cellard]

I think the break even price for miners is something like $5,000 per bitcoin so I can’t see the price dropping below that. They won’t allow it surely, all the bit mining farms won’t allow it.

We'll, if we get near $5700 again, we would be looking at a quadruple bottom... is that even a valid technical analysis figure?

If that price range keeps being a solid support the theory may be correct. So far it has worked at least. I still don't see where the $5000-ish figure comes from since trying to guess what the cost of mining 1 BTC is at a global scale is extremely difficult. Incidentally $4900 is the next trend line in which it should bounce back otherwise the next is like $1500 ish... I just don't see it going that low. I mean who is insane enough to not be buying before hitting these prices?

$4900 matches the supposed mining cost theory so it could be a strong place to finally bottom.

[Wind_FURY]

I think the break even price for miners is something like $5,000 per bitcoin so I can’t see the price dropping below that. They won’t allow it surely, all the bit mining farms won’t allow it.

We'll, if we get near $5700 again, we would be looking at a quadruple bottom... is that even a valid technical analysis figure?

If that price range keeps being a solid support the theory may be correct. So far it has worked at least. I still don't see where the $5000-ish figure comes from since trying to guess what the cost of mining 1 BTC is at a global scale is extremely difficult. Incidentally $4900 is the next trend line in which it should bounce back otherwise the next is like $1500 ish... I just don't see it going that low. I mean who is insane enough to not be buying before hitting these prices?

$4900 matches the supposed mining cost theory so it could be a strong place to finally bottom.

On a scale of 1 to 10, how would you perceive those figures to be accurate? We have seen many market analysts from the people using different chart tools to the people using fundamental Bitcoin data, but none has given the community of a real clear picture of the situation in my opinion.

[Lucius]

I think the break even price for miners is something like $5,000 per bitcoin so I can’t see the price dropping below that. They won’t allow it surely, all the bit mining farms won’t allow it.

Price of mining one BTC is different from country to country, of course it depends on the price of electricity. For example by research from Elitefixtures-Bitcoin Mining Costs Throughout the World it will cost you only 531$ to mine 1 BTC in Venezuela, but it will cost you over 26 000$ to do same thing in South Korea. Since most of big mining farms are in China, is a very important thing to say that cost of mining 1BTC there is only slightly higher then 3000$.

So by this data ( if they are accurate ), it would be profitable for miners even if price is drop under 4000$, what we hope will not happen. BAKKT could help bulls to make Christmas and New Year holidays happy again for all of us, like last year.

[bengsabeng]

more precisely in September, because decisions about ETF will be received in September. if the ETF is received a trip to $ 100k will begin immediately and the bear market will end soon.

[cellard]

more precisely in September, because decisions about ETF will be received in September. if the ETF is received a trip to $ 100k will begin immediately and the bear market will end soon.

No, the ETF will keep getting delayed, I don't understand why people think it will pass. It will not pass this year and it will not past in 2019. I doubt it will ever pass, they can't regulate bitcoin enough ever, at any rate, due it's decentralized nature, so they will keep rejecting every ETF ever, people need to understand this.

Of course there's a chance that they decide to pass it but this would only be the case when they are ready themselves (when they feel confident with their stack). Meanwhile they kill keep using the dips they create by rejecting it by buying cheap coins and stacking them.

[Slow death]

This is big, very big, similar to an ETF approved.

I just went to google and typed: " BAKKT " and I see this:

Bitcoin and the NYSE — unpacking Bakkt’s BIG plans

Intercontinental Exchange, Microsoft, and Starbucks are launching a crypto venture

The NYSE's Owner Wants to Bring Bitcoin to Your 401(k). Are Crypto Credit Cards Next?

Pantera Capital CEO: People Should Be Focused on Bakkt (‘Huge News’) and Not on Bitcoin ETF Rejections

Bitcoin could come to your retirement account, thanks to Starbucks' crypto venture: Investor Brian Kelly

It could be something interesting.

[1Referee]

Price of mining one BTC is different from country to country, of course it depends on the price of electricity. For example by research from Elitefixtures-Bitcoin Mining Costs Throughout the World it will cost you only 531$ to mine 1 BTC in Venezuela, but it will cost you over 26 000$ to do same thing in South Korea. Since most of big mining farms are in China, is a very important thing to say that cost of mining 1BTC there is only slightly higher then 3000$.

So by this data ( if they are accurate ), it would be profitable for miners even if price is drop under 4000$, what we hope will not happen.

In Venezuela the electricity might be dirt cheap, but there is no way you can have larger miners settle there as they would literally drain that country in a matter of days. To add; the electricity infrastructure there is horrible. In several parts of the country there are massive outages where it could take hours and hours before you see it come back, and then it's literally hoping that it won't disappear again, which it obviously will.

The thing with mining is that the more blocks you scoop up, the lower your cost per minted Bitcoin is. I wouldn't be surprised if Bitmain's pools can profitably mine even at $2000 because as always, the smaller miners will leave first and Bitmain's share will then only increase. More network share = more blocks for you.

[cellard]

Price of mining one BTC is different from country to country, of course it depends on the price of electricity. For example by research from Elitefixtures-Bitcoin Mining Costs Throughout the World it will cost you only 531$ to mine 1 BTC in Venezuela, but it will cost you over 26 000$ to do same thing in South Korea. Since most of big mining farms are in China, is a very important thing to say that cost of mining 1BTC there is only slightly higher then 3000$.

So by this data ( if they are accurate ), it would be profitable for miners even if price is drop under 4000$, what we hope will not happen.

In Venezuela the electricity might be dirt cheap, but there is no way you can have larger miners settle there as they would literally drain that country in a matter of days. To add; the electricity infrastructure there is horrible. In several parts of the country there are massive outages where it could take hours and hours before you see it come back, and then it's literally hoping that it won't disappear again, which it obviously will.

The thing with mining is that the more blocks you scoop up, the lower your cost per minted Bitcoin is. I wouldn't be surprised if Bitmain's pools can profitably mine even at $2000 because as always, the smaller miners will leave first and Bitmain's share will then only increase. More network share = more blocks for you.

China is most likely the place to pay attention to since most mining rewards to there anyway due the massive hashrate monopoly in there so I guess the global average must be around $4000.

But like you said Bitmain may find a deeper gap, however they cannot exploit this indefinitely... it may be a risk taking advantage of that. As smaller miners go, if Bitmain tries to get this gap that smaller mines leave, their dominance may be too high and 51% may kick in which means price dumping so it could end up in losses.

They have to leverage that. I think they will not try anything stupid. So most likely $4000 to $5000 should be the solid miner cost bottom taking as valid the data we have.