[Discussion]How to decentralize the price of the bitcoin? Self-moderated.

[TheBeardedBaby]

Tired to see only spammy mega-threads in the section that's why I'll try to start a normal one with this question.

If you think about it, the price is reflection of the bitcoin supply and demand based only on the available exchanges.
You can directly trade at whatever price you like.
What can be done?

Would't be better if the price reflects the real effort to "create" (mine) the bitcoin, or the effort to support the network like the electricity costs + hardware investments etc.

I know this is almost impossible to accurately calculate it but still it will be closer to the real value than to the speculative one "controlled" by the exchanges.

This is innovative technology and is should not relay only on the "old traditions" of price forming, we need a new revolutionary way to balance it, this is the only way to be world-wide accepted.
 
The whole idea of bitcoin is to be decentralize, but you have enough amount of bitcoins the price can easily be controlled.
We have seen already many such cases, and there are more to come.

What you think?

P.S. This is self-moderated thread, I will remove any comments that I suspect to be just a sig.spam*. If you not agree with this condition, better don't post here.


*NB!: This is a self-moderated thread with the sole purpose of removing spam generated in this section. No comments will be ever deleted by me based on whether I agree with a opinion or not.

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[seoincorporation]

This is innovative technology and is should not relay only on the "old traditions" of price forming, we need a new revolutionary way to balance it, this is the only way to be world-wide accepted.
The whole idea of bitcoin is to be decentralize, but you have enough amount of bitcoins the price can easily be controlled.
We have seen already many such cases, and there are more to come.

It is. But, sadly, I`ve come to think that also old ways of living are infecting bitcoin by now. I mean: regarding mining, you need a really powerful computer to be able to resolve a hash and take a piece of the cake. To have one of these computers implies a lot of money, so: can bitcoin become exclusive for those with money, with real one?
Regarding the new way to balance it, I`ve been concerned about the use of the network. Speaking about Bitcoin, more and more exchanges seems to be implementing the KYC nightmare. Do you think that by centralizing the use of bitcoin it will continue being anonymous? If the use, if the necessary means to obtain some of the common people, for instance, to buy some bitcoins is under the same laws of a banking system, then what is going o happen with the initial idea.

That`s why I think you're right: we need a new way. Bitcoin is a new kind of "money", a completely revolutionary economic system so we need different and new approaches to avoid it to become another centralized-asset, and, only by doing so, we will be able to have a truly decentralized economic system.
 

P.S. This is self-moderated thread, I will remove any comments that I suspect to be just a sig.spam. If you not agree with this condition, better don't post here.

Maybe the shitposters will remain far from this one, due to the self-moderation stuff. Or not. Let wait and see.

Good thread, hope it leads towards an interesting discussion.

[BTCforJoe]

Exchanges don't control the price of bitcoin; people do. An exchange is just a facilitator for the buying and selling of bitcoin. Yes, there have been instances in the past where shady exchanges have tried to manipulate the prices, but for the most part, manipulation is instigated by shady individuals for whatever purpose.

On the contrary, though, the more you try to find a "revolutionary way to balance" the price, the more the conversation of centralization comes up. Is it in unfortunate that a bitcoin whale can manipulate the value of bitcoin? Absolutely. But think of it in fiat terms. A few families (the 1 percenters) that own a vast amount of fiat assets have a bunch of global power to influence decisions and manipulate markets for their own self gains. But because of the nature of the public's mass adoption of currencies, there are minute checks and balances that come into play.

Is it working? Probably not, with the rate of inflation and journey towards an imminent global economic crisis, but unfortunately, it can't be stopped. Same with Bitcoin. To try and introduce a way to neutralize the value of bitcoin is damn near impossible, if you ask me.

[LeGaulois]

You can't make the price reflecting the resources needed to mine or to support the network. How would you do it when we have a different electricity price worldwide, different machines and even machines with the same specs at a different price?

Also, the supply and demand aren't what you call "an old tradition" It's a natural result, check this example.
Imagine you absolutely want to buy an Audi A6 Quattro (costing $25k) All have been sold and no more left. If I want to sell mine to you, do you think I will accept to sell it to you for $25k? Knowing I can sell it easily $30k and you will accept since you really want one. I will use the fact there isn't any Audi A6 to sell, to make an extra cash on your your back:P

[vy99]

You can't make the price reflecting the resources needed to mine or to support the network. How would you do it when we have a different electricity price worldwide, different machines and even machines with the same specs at a different price?

Also, the supply and demand aren't what you call "an old tradition" It's a natural result, check this example.
Imagine you absolutely want to buy an Audi A6 Quattro (costing $25k) All have been sold and no more left. If I want to sell mine to you, do you think I will accept to sell it to you for $25k? Knowing I can sell it easily $30k and you will accept since you really want one. I will use the fact there isn't any Audi A6 to sell, to make an extra cash on your behalf

This is my feelings on the whole subject as well.

It'll be pretty much impossible to have the price reflect the resources because, as you said, it will vary from place to place (even within the same country) and there are other factors that come into it such as electricity hikes and utility deregulation. It's just too random to be able to accurately control.

As for supply and demand, I don't see why anyone is surprised that this is how things are progressing with Bitcoin...especially in light of the (relatively) limited supply.

[d5000]

Would't be better if the price reflects the real effort to "create" (mine) the bitcoin, or the effort to support the network like the electricity costs + hardware investments etc.

If we had really a mature, transparent market without excessive speculation, then "price finding" could approach that ideal. It could reflect maybe not the "effort" (to create BTC), but the "security level" or Bitcoin.

Image you're a millionaire, or the responsible person of a big business. Would you use Bitcoin as the main tool for your transactions?

The answer would depend on, above all, one variable: security.

You can estimate BItcoin's security - meaning that you can calculate the probability to carry out an 51% attack on the Bitcoin blockchain, that 1) could steal coins from your wallets or double-spend scam you; 2) could make the price plummet.

The lower the attack probability, the higher the motivation for the millionaire or business to buy Bitcoins and use them. So a growing security level, which is proportional to the "attack cost" (but not exactly proportional to hashrate) should create demand for Bitcoins, and so the price became correlated with attack cost.

We're far away from that ideal. The reason is mainly an immature, speculative market. There are too many unknown variables (regulation, bugs, scalability) that affect the price movements and so it will take its time to reach that "ideal Bitcoin price finding market".

[TheBeardedBaby]

Great, finally a good discussion here.

1. I'm not saying that my approach of price calculation is the best approach. It was just an example.

2.  I don't want to see the Bitcoin as an investment tool, an asset or Audi/lambo as suggested. Yeah the current situation is like this but the whole idea is not to HODL your bitcoins in a hope for the Moon or even Mars / well everyone does it, including me/ but to use them as a tool in the day life. I prefer to see it is a currency like the USD or EUR.

3.You won't buy dollars just to put them in a jar under your bed for a few years in a hope to rise their value. You gonna buy them because for example you are going to the US on vacation and you plan to spend them til the last cent.
In order this to happen to the Bitcoin too, the price has to be determined on another factor different than the ones we have today.

World of HODLers is devastating for the Bitcoin, I'm sure Satoshi won't be happy with it.

We are in the very beginning of the Crypto money and I hope that this dark period will be over soon.

[vy99]

Great, finally a good discussion here.

1. I'm not saying that my approach of price calculation is the best approach. It was just an example.

2.  I don't want to see the Bitcoin as an investment tool, an asset or Audi/lambo as suggested. Yeah the current situation is like this but the whole idea is not to HODL your bitcoins in a hope for the Moon or even Mars / well everyone does it, including me/ but to use them as a tool in the day life. I prefer to see it is a currency like the USD or EUR.

3.You won't buy dollars just to put them in a jar under your bed for a few years in a hope to rise their value. You gonna buy them because for example you are going to the US on vacation and you plan to spend them til the last cent.
In order this to happen to the Bitcoin too, the price has to be determined on another factor different than the ones we have today.

World of HODLers is devastating for the Bitcoin, I'm sure Satoshi won't be happy with it.

We are in the very beginning of the Crypto money and I hope that this dark period will be over soon.

Yeah I mentioned this in another post but there's a catch-22 when it comes to Bitcoin. In order for the price to go up it has to be used (spent) but when the price goes up it causes people to hold on to their Bitcoin so they can cash out for the "lambo" or whatever.

Unfortunately the original intention of Bitcoin (digital currency to disrupt the financial status quo) is going out the window with all the speculators and people who see a get-rich-quick scheme.

My hope is that one day the price will stabilize and when people see that it's not skyrocketing (or plummeting) they'll be inclined to using it more than they do now

[BTCforJoe]

Yeah I mentioned this in another post but there's a catch-22 when it comes to Bitcoin. In order for the price to go up it has to be used (spent) but when the price goes up it causes people to hold on to their Bitcoin so they can cash out for the "lambo" or whatever.

Unfortunately the original intention of Bitcoin (digital currency to disrupt the financial status quo) is going out the window with all the speculators and people who see a get-rich-quick scheme.

My hope is that one day the price will stabilize and when people see that it's not skyrocketing (or plummeting) they'll be inclined to using it more than they do now

This.

Thus far, Bitcoin's main attraction has invited mass introductions to new users due to price spikes. We've seen the little effect that current media and news has on the volatility of bitcoin as compared to years past. Imagine an ETF announcement 3 or 4 years ago, only to have the decision not approved. I feel like years ago, it would have been DEVASTATING to the price of bitcoin, much unlike the recent small dip that the price took after the ETF failed to get approval.

I honestly believe that volatility will always be the name of the game with Bitcoin until more people start utilizing it. We are still far from mass adoption, and because of that, there are individuals and institutions that are able to manipulate the price. After the recent spike in the last holiday season, I think the FOMO and shakeout was enough to change the way that people view bitcoin. The ones calling it a scam are the ones that probably won't touch it again, but I'm okay with that. Those are the types of people that were just trying to get rich quick.

All in all, I'd say that you should expect to experience volatility, which I'm okay with. Why? Because I believe that at the end of the day, Bitcoin will pave the way for the answer to our economic crisis. Fuck fiat. Digital currency is the way to go, and blockchain technology will lead that revolution.

Mark my words... There will be a time where we won't be able to buy Bitcoin with fiat currency anymore, and I believe that this will happen in my lifetime.

Unfortunately, I still don't believe there to be a tangible method to decentralize the price of bitcoin.

[Steamtyme]

Tired to see only spammy mega-threads in the section that's why I'll try to start a normal one with this question.

If you think about it, the price is reflection of the bitcoin supply and demand based only on the available exchanges.
You can directly trade at whatever price you like.

Would't be better if the price reflects the real effort to "create" (mine) the bitcoin, or the effort to support the network like the electricity costs + hardware investments etc.

I agree with BTCJoe that the exchanges do not control the price. The fact that the value of BTC is calculated based on what it is bought/sold for on the exchanges makes sense. This is because you can clearly see what whas sent and what amount was paid for it by following the trade sheets. People use the exchanges for a sense of security, when converting their BTC which is true if you are smart about your use of exchanges.

Personally I feel it's better the equipment pricing reflect a weighted average of the BTC value. I feel this approach may have helped cast a wider net of small/medium farms and contributed to a decentralized network. Mind you this may not have mattered as we have currently seen with these early adopters using BTC as an intended currency they created certain behemoths controlling massive amount of hashpower.

This is innovative technology and is should not relay only on the "old traditions" of price forming, we need a new revolutionary way to balance it, *snip*
The whole idea of bitcoin is to be decentralize, but you have enough amount of bitcoins the price can easily be controlled.

Every time I've considered this I come back to why one issue. If BTC were not continuously valued against a FIAT pairing it would help push it towards a currency. I have long been a fan of the Barter system, it is at it's very core a decentralized unregulated system. The people involved decide value, and in the early stages could help in adoption and with adoption create an ecosystem of value centered around BTC

Thus far, Bitcoin's main attraction has invited mass introductions to new users due to price spikes. We've seen the little effect that current media and news has on the volatility of bitcoin as compared to years past.

Yes I think the two have something to do with each other. The volatility has brought in the "short term trader", who was already doing this so why not try with BTC. They aren't here to understand anything beyond the value of BTC and how to exploit it. This brought in more people from all walks of life, they approach with the same attitude towards BTC. The FOMO definitely had a lot to do with the media representation as it drove more and more people into the network, but not because there was news but due to visibility, it was a space filler for the network and at the time the price was driving high. So negative news I thin kmay prevent someone from jumping on board, but I don't think many people understand the nuances of what the news means for BTC.

I honestly believe that volatility will always be the name of the game with Bitcoin until more people start utilizing it. We are still far from mass adoption, and because of that, there are individuals and institutions that are able to manipulate the price. Those are the types of people that were just trying to get rich quick.

I feel the volatility is good for driving people to use BTC as a currency, but I worry it prevents larger businesses from adopting it in day to day use. I think it works great for a medium to small sized business as they can cash out at days end should they choose. Possibly with more businesses in that range creating a wider network for its use the price can lose some of it's volatility for larger non crypto businesses to adopt.

[darklus123]

World of HODLers is devastating for the Bitcoin, I'm sure Satoshi won't be happy with it.

If I am not mistaken, I will just have to state the obvious reason why satoshi created bitcoin in the first place. To have a decentralized "CURRENCY", not an asset. So basically the idea to buy and spend not to HODL.

Unfortunately the original intention of Bitcoin (digital currency to disrupt the financial status quo) is going out the window with all the speculators and people who see a get-rich-quick scheme.

Why? because of the lack of knowledge that most bitcoin users does have. Especially the users from the third world countries which only uses bitcoin because of the idea of getting rich, as you have stated.

I don't know if I should include this but the idea of why did Satoshi created this currency is being performed illegally?

Black market has been using this currency and have been taking advantage of its benefits

P.S. This is self-moderated thread, I will remove any comments that I suspect to be just a sig.spam. If you not agree with this condition, better don't post here.

I think we should start making more self moderated threads from global sections.  As what hilarious said :

As I've been saying for years though, workload should be distributed around better. There's been no dedicated mod of big boards like Bitcoin Discussion for years and that certainly could do with it's own one. The alt coin section is getting swamped now and mprep was always overloaded as it's a huge board, but now that section is getting worse since he become a Global and doesn't have enough time to dedicate to it.

Then allowing OP to self moderate its thread for anti spamming can really be a great help for them.


Lastly, I am quite saddened that the current state of bitcoin industry is starting to turn into a banking system because of the KYC policy that most exchangers have been performing.

[LeGaulois]

~snip~

That's about what I wanted to say in this topic a few days ago Can you stop calling Bitcoin an investment? (unfortunately, I didn't get a decent discussion in.) and in addition Up to Two-Thirds of Bitcoin Transactions Have No Economic Value. The percentage of Bitcoin transactions for illegal activities is negligible (well I exaggerate a little, just minimal) Nowadays people prefer to use other privacy-centric coins. Five years ago the analysis of blockchain data was saying up to 90% of transactions are related to illegal activities, nowadays the percentage is only 10%. (1)

Crypto speculators now are the majority responsible for the Bitcoin transactions (1) and so making it an asset. It's sad but it's the reality and we have reached the point that it won't be reversible



1. (Bitcoin Speculators, Not Drug Dealers, Dominate Crypto Use Now)

[Simple_Plan]

The whole idea of bitcoin is to be decentralize, but you have enough amount of bitcoins the price can easily be controlled.

It took me 5 minutes of reading before getting to your sounds-right point. I don't think we can decentralize bitcoin's price in a few words. Even in trillion dollar-worth markets such as stock or gold market, organizations still can use money to manipulate stock's price or gold's price. If cryptocurrency's market cap reaches the same level, I think bitcoin's price maybe less manipulated somehow.

[bob123]

Would't be better if the price reflects the real effort to "create" (mine) the bitcoin, or the effort to support the network like the electricity costs + hardware investments etc.

I know this is almost impossible to accurately calculate it [...]

Not that it just isn't that easy to calculate the costs, you would have to prevent rich people from trying to get more rich.

Since money rules the world, the price ($ value) will always be dictated by the supply and demand on exchanges. It is basically just an object being traded. In the end it all comes down to the supply and demand on the exchanges it is traded on.

IMO the correct way would not be to stabilize the price, but to increase adoption which will in return decrease the volatility itself.
There is a lot of interesting development ongoing with bitcoin. With more and more new bitcoin user (not hodler) the coins will gradually get more evenly distributed. This actually will decentralize the price, or at least the power to change the price.
But this does of course require merchant and customer to be ready to accept/pay with bitcoin in their daily life.

[bubbaj]

I say that BTC was actually invented by electricity companies, lets face it the whole time that BTC has been around more than 70 to 80% of the cost of mining has been eaten up by electricity cost. Some might think that this is a conspiracy theory, funny thing is any time BTC get to a level were mining it makes no sense the price goes up. At the moment it costs around $6,500 to mine 1 BTC.  I bet BTC does not go below this cost base.

[avikz]

Great, finally a good discussion here.

1. I'm not saying that my approach of price calculation is the best approach. It was just an example.

2.  I don't want to see the Bitcoin as an investment tool, an asset or Audi/lambo as suggested. Yeah the current situation is like this but the whole idea is not to HODL your bitcoins in a hope for the Moon or even Mars / well everyone does it, including me/ but to use them as a tool in the day life. I prefer to see it is a currency like the USD or EUR.

3.You won't buy dollars just to put them in a jar under your bed for a few years in a hope to rise their value. You gonna buy them because for example you are going to the US on vacation and you plan to spend them til the last cent.
In order this to happen to the Bitcoin too, the price has to be determined on another factor different than the ones we have today.

World of HODLers is devastating for the Bitcoin, I'm sure Satoshi won't be happy with it.

We are in the very beginning of the Crypto money and I hope that this dark period will be over soon.

Yeah I mentioned this in another post but there's a catch-22 when it comes to Bitcoin. In order for the price to go up it has to be used (spent) but when the price goes up it causes people to hold on to their Bitcoin so they can cash out for the "lambo" or whatever.

Unfortunately the original intention of Bitcoin (digital currency to disrupt the financial status quo) is going out the window with all the speculators and people who see a get-rich-quick scheme.

My hope is that one day the price will stabilize and when people see that it's not skyrocketing (or plummeting) they'll be inclined to using it more than they do now

Absolutely correct! Bitcoin has become an investment asset now than a currency system. So we have long diverted from the original thought of becoming a de-centralized p2p currency free of regulations and middle man. That's where we have precisely became a part of the speculation game. I am not denying the fact that I also have bitcoins in my cold storage with the similar hope, but I also don't have any space where I can use my bitcoins to purchase anything from any merchant, at least in my country!

To be able to spend bitcoins as a currency system to purchase goods or services, we need merchants to accept it as a payment option. This is largely missing in today's scenario. Everytime I want to purchase something, I have to convert the required amount of bitcoin into fiat and then I use it for the purchase. That's why it is not helping the crypto economy because we have very very limited options to use cryptos directly. To change this mindset, we need merchants to will accept bitcoin for everyday goods.

Tired to see only spammy mega-threads in the section that's why I'll try to start a normal one with this question.

If you think about it, the price is reflection of the bitcoin supply and demand based only on the available exchanges.
You can directly trade at whatever price you like.
What can be done?

Would't be better if the price reflects the real effort to "create" (mine) the bitcoin, or the effort to support the network like the electricity costs + hardware investments etc.

I know this is almost impossible to accurately calculate it but still it will be closer to the real value than to the speculative one "controlled" by the exchanges.

This is innovative technology and is should not relay only on the "old traditions" of price forming, we need a new revolutionary way to balance it, this is the only way to be world-wide accepted.
 
The whole idea of bitcoin is to be decentralize, but you have enough amount of bitcoins the price can easily be controlled.
We have seen already many such cases, and there are more to come.

What you think?

P.S. This is self-moderated thread, I will remove any comments that I suspect to be just a sig.spam. If you not agree with this condition, better don't post here.

Secondly to the OP's point, it is only possible if the miners come together and decide that they will not sell off their bitcoins under a certain price. But it is very easy to say but very difficult to execute! To reach a global consensus of this level is not easy at all! The big exchanges can help with this decision but it will slump their business down, so they will not help either. The only choice left is the free market decision and that's what exactly we are following now!

I would love to see if anyone can suggest a revolutionary way to balance the price based on the production cost and stabilize it. As of now, I don't see any alternate route than to follow the free market dynamics which is somewhat influenced by the whales. As a small trader, our influence power is next to zero and we can only submit ourselves to the current market dynamics. Absolutely helpless here!

[hatshepsut93]

Would't be better if the price reflects the real effort to "create" (mine) the bitcoin, or the effort to support the network like the electricity costs + hardware investments etc.

No. That just sounds like some Marxist planned economy where everything has some fixed value and supply and demand are ignored.

I know this is almost impossible to accurately calculate it but still it will be closer to the real value than to the speculative one "controlled" by the exchanges.

Speculative value is the real value, because value itself is just a sum of personal feelings and opinions of all the people that participate in the market.

This is innovative technology and is should not relay only on the "old traditions" of price forming, we need a new revolutionary way to balance it, this is the only way to be world-wide accepted.

It absolutely should, because there's no other way for it to function. Bitcoin's price is a very important part of the protocol, because it determines how much PoW can be allocated to the network. If this mechanism gets disrupted, 51% attacks can become possible. Recently there were double-spend attacks successfully executed against some altcoins, which happened because their hashrate was too low to support the price, making the attack profitable.

Also, your idea might be just impossible to achieve, because decentralization is possible thanks to trustlesness. So, to make your system work, you somehow have to find a way to trustlessly measure all the costs of Bitcoin mining operations.

[kaisa]

I think this is a strategy to introduce bitcoin throughout the world. this is the key, if bitcoin is only used as a digital payment tool it will not be as famous as it is today. in this world there are more than 200 crypto exchanges (see icorating exchange) while companies that want to accept bitcoin as payment instruments are still low.

in the future, I agree with you. that the price of bitcoin must be determined. but liquidity does not want it all.
the only thing that can control the price of bitcoin is the central bank's monetary system, the central bank is able to create, attract, and even hold virtual money including cryptocurrency so that bitcoin can function like dollars and euros.

[vy99]

Great, finally a good discussion here.

1. I'm not saying that my approach of price calculation is the best approach. It was just an example.

2.  I don't want to see the Bitcoin as an investment tool, an asset or Audi/lambo as suggested. Yeah the current situation is like this but the whole idea is not to HODL your bitcoins in a hope for the Moon or even Mars / well everyone does it, including me/ but to use them as a tool in the day life. I prefer to see it is a currency like the USD or EUR.

3.You won't buy dollars just to put them in a jar under your bed for a few years in a hope to rise their value. You gonna buy them because for example you are going to the US on vacation and you plan to spend them til the last cent.
In order this to happen to the Bitcoin too, the price has to be determined on another factor different than the ones we have today.

World of HODLers is devastating for the Bitcoin, I'm sure Satoshi won't be happy with it.

We are in the very beginning of the Crypto money and I hope that this dark period will be over soon.

Yeah I mentioned this in another post but there's a catch-22 when it comes to Bitcoin. In order for the price to go up it has to be used (spent) but when the price goes up it causes people to hold on to their Bitcoin so they can cash out for the "lambo" or whatever.

Unfortunately the original intention of Bitcoin (digital currency to disrupt the financial status quo) is going out the window with all the speculators and people who see a get-rich-quick scheme.

My hope is that one day the price will stabilize and when people see that it's not skyrocketing (or plummeting) they'll be inclined to using it more than they do now

Absolutely correct! Bitcoin has become an investment asset now than a currency system. So we have long diverted from the original thought of becoming a de-centralized p2p currency free of regulations and middle man. That's where we have precisely became a part of the speculation game. I am not denying the fact that I also have bitcoins in my cold storage with the similar hope, but I also don't have any space where I can use my bitcoins to purchase anything from any merchant, at least in my country!

To be able to spend bitcoins as a currency system to purchase goods or services, we need merchants to accept it as a payment option. This is largely missing in today's scenario. Everytime I want to purchase something, I have to convert the required amount of bitcoin into fiat and then I use it for the purchase. That's why it is not helping the crypto economy because we have very very limited options to use cryptos directly. To change this mindset, we need merchants to will accept bitcoin for everyday goods.

Yes that's very true however before merchants will accept Bitcoin we need the price to stabilize a bit. That's probably the biggest problem for adoption right now. Merchants can't accept Bitcoin if they don't know what the value will be from month to month...one month it's $20k, a few months later it's $6k. That's no way to run a business. If Bitcoin were to ever become like gold in the sense that price fluctuations are more steady then we'd see more merchants accepting it because they'll know approximately what the value will be 6 months later.

[1Referee]

I say that BTC was actually invented by electricity companies, lets face it the whole time that BTC has been around more than 70 to 80% of the cost of mining has been eaten up by electricity cost. Some might think that this is a conspiracy theory, funny thing is any time BTC get to a level were mining it makes no sense the price goes up. At the moment it costs around $6,500 to mine 1 BTC.  I bet BTC does not go below this cost base.

Never heard that one before, but it does seem to be an interesting theory, even though I don't agree with it.

The thing with Bitcoin as speculative asset, which it still is today, is that the majority of the investors don't invest in Bitcoin with the network in mind or whatever else is going on in the background. If a large investor or an old hand wants to cash out and dump the market to $5000 to fully liquidate their position, they certainly will do so.

The only thing we don't know is how many hidden orders are there that will front run that dump and try to catch it on the lower side of the chart. It happens on Bitfinex quite regularly and likely happens on other exchanges as well, but then in a less obvious form. Exchanges are rigged to the core so we have to assume that it's happening everywhere.

Also, the cost of mining 1BTC is far too speculative. It depends on so many variables that we can't just point out one single price for the whole industry. Smaller miners are probably closer to ~$7000 per minted Bitcoin, while the larger farms frequently scooping up blocks only have $4000'ish actual cost per minted Bitcoin.