Tome Lee's Bitcoin Misery Index indicator

[bbc.reporter]

The details on how to compute the Bitcoin Misery Index is not clear. But according to Investopedia, the index is based on the percentage of winning trades from the total trades, and volatility. The values are from 0 to 100 and it would be at misery if the value moves below 27 and the lower it goes the more the asset is a buy?

Are there experienced chart technicians that can tell us how effective would Tom Lee's BMI versus the RSI?



BTC) “isn’t broken” if it’s holding at the current price and volatility levels, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee said to CNBC’s “Fast Money” on August 6.

In the interview, the Wall Street bull referred to the current indicators of Fundstrat’s recently launched Bitcoin Misery Index (BMI), which aims to inform investors of how “miserable” holders of the currency are based on its price and volatility.

According to Lee, when the index is below 27, it shows that future returns are very good, while if it surpasses 68 percent, it is “time to sell Bitcoin.” Pointing at the index’s current number of 39, Lee concluded that the momentum is “recovering,” noting

“Bitcoin isn’t broken if it’s holding at these levels. I think people are afraid it is going to go back down to $6,000 and never come back from those bear markets.”

Fundstrat’s head of research also pointed out the current levels of Bitcoin dominance on the crypto markets, which has surged up to around 48 percentover the past several weeks after dropping to as low as 37 percent in July.

Read in full https://altcointoday.com/fundstrats-tom-lee-bitcoin-misery-index-indicators-show-the-crypto-isnt-broken/

[bbc.reporter]

Remember this? I reckon measuring Tom Lee's bitcoin misery index today would give a value near 0. Does that imply we should miserably begin buying now before it becomes less miserable hehehe?

[exstasie]

Remember this? I reckon measuring Tom Lee's bitcoin misery index today would give a value near 0. Does that imply we should miserably begin buying now before it becomes less miserable hehehe?

Is there a real-time indicator for this somewhere? Or at least a formula, so I can try coding an indicator in Tradingview?

It'd be interesting to see where it is now. I remember seeing pictures of the BMI against the historical chart sometime last year. At the time, it was already relatively low. Seeing where we are now, that indicates to me it's like RSI: "oversold" isn't necessarily a buy signal. It just means bears are winning.

[BitHodler]

Remember this? I reckon measuring Tom Lee's bitcoin misery index today would give a value near 0. Does that imply we should miserably begin buying now before it becomes less miserable hehehe?

As long as Tom Lee still thinks the 'true' value of Bitcoin is over $10,000 we shouldn't expect anything to change.

I want to see him regret every bullish thing he said about Bitcoin, consider it a ponzi scheme, and go back to his stock--traditional market analysis. He's not doing himself a favor continuing to be called a Bitcoin bull.

I find it shocking that someone with his level of market understanding doesn't see how a bear market within the crypto world isn't much different from traditional bear markets. The only difference is that it bottoms out sooner.

[Supercrypt]

When it was increasingly high it was topped at 51 and during the summer when the prices moved between 6 and 8 thousand dollars it was told to be about 37 which means there was a 14 point difference from the highest to more than 50% loss, that means the price is probably somewhere along the line of 25-30 BMI in today's prices, definitely not something we would love to see but considering nobody really cares about Lee and his predictions and he is a total buffoon his calculations are not really worth listening as well. That is why this whole 50, 37 , 25 and none of the numbers in between on his BMI calculation really means anything, he always feels like bitcoin is at a buy spot, he is a bull lover and he always thinks all stocks and commodities all crypto is always on buy. He would buy the whole world as an investment if he could.

[BrewMaster]

obviously his permanent bull predictions are sometimes ridiculous, like the thing about a new ATH for last year while no recovery had yet have begun although the recovery was so close.
but let's not forget that just because price hasn't gone up, it doesn't mean it is not underpriced. and it deffinitely doesn't make this price real. you can't predict when the rise is going to happen, nor can you predict whether there will be any more drops. but you can clearly see that $3k is not a representative of bitcoin's true value.

[bbc.reporter]

Remember this? I reckon measuring Tom Lee's bitcoin misery index today would give a value near 0. Does that imply we should miserably begin buying now before it becomes less miserable hehehe?

As long as Tom Lee still thinks the 'true' value of Bitcoin is over $10,000 we shouldn't expect anything to change.

I want to see him regret every bullish thing he said about Bitcoin, consider it a ponzi scheme, and go back to his stock--traditional market analysis. He's not doing himself a favor continuing to be called a Bitcoin bull.

I find it shocking that someone with his level of market understanding doesn't see how a bear market within the crypto world isn't much different from traditional bear markets. The only difference is that it bottoms out sooner.

Maybe he has exposed much of his clients' funds in bitcoin. He was clearly becoming someone similar to a desperate ICO token bagholder beginning on January of 2018, then all his funny hype predictions came monthly hehehe.

I laugh at him, however I also feel sorry for him.

[cellard]

Those type of indicators are what they are, they aren't some magic crystal 8ball that's infallible. From the ones I've seen, my favorite indicator of this nature to follow has to be the Mayer Multiple, which you can find linked on Trace Mayer's twitter. At least the guy is an OG Bitcoiner and has been through hell and back. I would trust that guy's knowledge before anyone other indicative models that other people are proposing.

[figmentofmyass]

I find it shocking that someone with his level of market understanding doesn't see how a bear market within the crypto world isn't much different from traditional bear markets. The only difference is that it bottoms out sooner.

he understands legacy markets and large indices---that's what he's known for. but i'm not sure that extends to super speculative and nascent markets like crypto.

think about it: an 80-90% drop in crypto is a normal occurrence. it's nothing for old timers who have been through one or more market cycles. but for a stock analyst? an 80-90% drop means people are jumping out of windows, black tuesday style. it's totally unheard of outside of the great depression.

i think this might be playing into tom lee's perma-bullish mentality with crypto. he has trouble conceiving how low the market can go.

[davis196]

So this guy pulls out some shitty fake "index" to prove that bitcoin has potential?
We don't need indexes(fake or real) to know that.
The "crypto guru" bull clowns are becoming more and more annoying and delusional these days.

[figmentofmyass]

So this guy pulls out some shitty fake "index" to prove that bitcoin has potential?
We don't need indexes(fake or real) to know that.

he's just drawing on the old market wisdom that bull markets are born on pessimism. it's when everyone is negative about a market's prospects (in other words, everyone has sold) that we've hit the bottom. there's definitely something to it, because that's exactly how things felt in 2015.

i don't think the index is supposed to say anything about bitcoin's potential. it's more so a nod to the idea of market cycles.

[bbc.reporter]

@davis196. It is an indicator. Sometimes it might help some people trade better, however Tom Lee's misery index might have been created to make himself feel that he made the right decisions. Similar to the lies bagholders tell themselves hehehe.

I should stop laughing at him, I am an Aeon bagholder.