it was obvious

[teramit]

btc price is falling and again alot of people wonders why it is happening. I can easily say that to know it will gonna up or down on a mid-term loop is easy just to predict the number is hard. So if you wonder next big move you can see it from dayly graphs from all year perpective.just open graph and see that wawes connects tops and bottoms that is your primay trend. Also you can see price is predictable but exact number may change on every trend. So if you focus mid-term invesment strategy trend is now going down probably new bottom record like 4-5k than rise but not this months number.  i dont expect it to reach 8k again this year.So if you want to in btc you can buy from net bottom and if you want to leave wait for next 2 months top likely 7500. But then btcusd will loose its volatility.

[BrewMaster]

probably new bottom record like 4-5k than rise but not this months number.  i dont expect it to reach 8k again this year.

and why is that?
i am not saying you are right or wrong but i fail to understand the reason behind these two statements.
the evidence that we had so far are these:
- price fell down hard 3 times this year and each time it went to $6k couldn't break it and bounced back.
- this recent movement was from $6k to $8k and then back to $6.5k

do you have any other evidence/fact that i don't know about? and based on these how do you predict $4-5k as bottom?

[Indamuck]

probably new bottom record like 4-5k than rise but not this months number.  i dont expect it to reach 8k again this year.

and why is that?
i am not saying you are right or wrong but i fail to understand the reason behind these two statements.
the evidence that we had so far are these:
- price fell down hard 3 times this year and each time it went to $6k couldn't break it and bounced back.
- this recent movement was from $6k to $8k and then back to $6.5k

do you have any other evidence/fact that i don't know about? and based on these how do you predict $4-5k as bottom?

I know the OP would at least give his reasoning for these predictions.  The truth is no one really knows where the bitcoin price will be, if anyone could accurately predict the movements they could constantly take out shorts/longs at 100x leverage and become extremely wealthy.

[Stedsm]

I believe in your words, but half. I know that BTC stands a chance to get dumped down to the least bottom levels at $4000, but then the heavy bull run is waiting as the buyers are really influenced by this life-changing investment and the $4000 level looks an extremely probable scene here, where they have put their limit buys, so as to get their orders filled once people start selling under panic. This is to give the strong hands a chance to get our BTC at such cheap rates. But then comes another bull run, which will eventually, if not gradually, turn BTC into a completely non-touchable asset (focus on emotions) as the value will be took to such fatigue numbers that we won't be able to buy our own Bitcoins that we are selling today. And no, I don't think that 8k won't be seen this year, you will surely see more than $10k itself.

[BrewMaster]

probably new bottom record like 4-5k than rise but not this months number.  i dont expect it to reach 8k again this year.

and why is that?
i am not saying you are right or wrong but i fail to understand the reason behind these two statements.
the evidence that we had so far are these:
- price fell down hard 3 times this year and each time it went to $6k couldn't break it and bounced back.
- this recent movement was from $6k to $8k and then back to $6.5k

do you have any other evidence/fact that i don't know about? and based on these how do you predict $4-5k as bottom?

I know the OP would at least give his reasoning for these predictions.  The truth is no one really knows where the bitcoin price will be, if anyone could accurately predict the movements they could constantly take out shorts/longs at 100x leverage and become extremely wealthy.

yeah i know that, but what i am expecting from someone who starts things off with "it was obvious" to at least have a satisfactory explanation of why he is prediction what he is posting in a speculation board.
right now it is just a guess, even if it comes true it still is a shot in the dark! unless he has some valid reason that he is not sharing with us

[1Referee]

No need to be dramatic.

It was the ETF speculation lifting the market up and it's the same ETF speculation taking the market back to where we started.

We can expect a similar upwards movement next month in the runup to the SEC deadline, but probably with a lower high to fit in the longer term downtrend.

The year after a bull run is always the worst, and 2018 seems to perfectly live up to that. Instead of complaining use it as an opportunity to buy the market down. Bitcoin will reach back to its highs as it has always done, and with so much bullish developments ahead of us, we'll likely break $100,000 somewhere before or after the block halving. That's exactly why the lower the price falls, the more bullish I get.

[Stedsm]

No need to be dramatic.

It was the ETF speculation lifting the market up and it's the same ETF speculation taking the market back to where we started.

We can expect a similar upwards movement next month in the runup to the SEC deadline, but probably with a lower high to fit in the longer term downtrend.

The year after a bull run is always the worst, and 2018 seems to perfectly live up to that. Instead of complaining use it as an opportunity to buy the market down. Bitcoin will reach back to its highs as it has always done, and with so much bullish developments ahead of us, we'll likely break $100,000 somewhere before or after the block halving. That's exactly why the lower the price falls, the more bullish I get.

That's what people don't understand here that Rome wasn't built in a day and that Bitcoin took years to get to $20k and it took a lot of patience and wait for the people to actually be able to see those values. Even after that, some real big wallets have not yet moved a dime out of their wallets in order to keep their savings intact and let it reward them for their belief at a time when there will be enough buy orders for them to eat the whole markets and still go multi-billionaires. All it takes is a wait and a need for Bitcoin to reach such a level, and for that, we need a super strong reason for that super bull run to be established. Bulls are not playing the markets currently as longs are getting hit so badly when bears start to kick in the ass of bulls. They are probably waiting for the correct zone to enter the markets back and then take the price to an ATH and then, those who are crying about this decline will cry more louder for their worst decision they are taking currently by selling their coins to those long-term holders.

[r32godzilla]

I have been watching bitcoin price movements for the past two years.We could see a sudden dump after a bullish run and a sudden hike after a bearish move.The only big change which we noticed was during the launch of bitcoin futures when it's price rose tremendously to ATH price of 20,000 dollars.

[YuginKadoya]

I doubt that will happen even though it looks like the price is falling down it will still recover in the future, But if you are considering the last movement with the movement of bitcoin today there is not a same method as the last time it can sure become very differently, Even though sometime the recent movement repeats it self, In my opinion chances are very slim, This year will be very bullish for the market, And it haven't reach the $8000 mark again And because of manipulators that taking over bitcoin no wonder the value is so down right now

[LeGaulois]

Anyone remember the 2013-2014 period? Don't you think we are seeing the same situation?

The Bitcoin price dropped from +$1,000 to +$200 within 1 year. The value had been divided by 5 so and then stayed around $200 or $300 with some occasional spikes during 2 years

If you compare with the ATH back in December at $20,000 and divide by 5, it gives $5000 and it's highly possible for December (or before) 2018 if you think about it. It will be the same duration and about the same months. If it effectively does like before and stays for 2 years it brings us to the next halving.

So finally, the Bitcoin value will be crawling around $5,000 with some occasional spikes ($6,000-$6,500) until we come to the next halving.
Does it make sense?

[Slow death]

i dont expect it to reach 8k again this year....

Well, you should reconsider your prediction, because if you are in this crypto market, then you should already know that the crypto market moves according to the good news and bad news. So, you should already imagine that in September people will buy bitcoin in the hope that some ETF will be approved, there is still this chance of ETF being approved, because if it did not exist it would be easier for the SEC to disapprove all ETFs, but the SEC did not approve or disapprove just delayed its response and this may mean that there is still a big chance ETF will be approved and if any ETF is approved then the price will increase much more than  $8000.

[cellard]

probably new bottom record like 4-5k than rise but not this months number.  i dont expect it to reach 8k again this year.

and why is that?
i am not saying you are right or wrong but i fail to understand the reason behind these two statements.
the evidence that we had so far are these:
- price fell down hard 3 times this year and each time it went to $6k couldn't break it and bounced back.
- this recent movement was from $6k to $8k and then back to $6.5k

do you have any other evidence/fact that i don't know about? and based on these how do you predict $4-5k as bottom?

By strict technical analysis using trend lines and nothing fancy like bolinger bands or anything else, the 2 price points I see are:

1) Optimistic scenario: We bounce back again for a "quadruple bottom" which meets the mining costs of 1 BTC (the famous $5000-ish range). It could go as low as $4900 because it meets the peak at September 1 2017.

2) Pessimistic scenario: We go back to $2500 ish, this line of support shows up by drawing a line that touches Jan 13th and Mar 25th 2017 dips. This for me is hard to fathom, considering how insanely undervalued Bitcoin would be at these prices, anyone with a brain would be going all in, so I expect people not taking such a risk and buying at higher prices.

Of course for someone that is in here for the long term that isn't pessimistic. Since Bitcoin cannot be defeated, the lower it goes in terms of fiat the better since the higher your BTC count would be when you buy, which is what matters in the long term when 6 figures become the rock bottom.

[exstasie]

i dont expect it to reach 8k again this year....

Well, you should reconsider your prediction, because if you are in this crypto market, then you should already know that the crypto market moves according to the good news and bad news.

That's probably not true, and there's no way to prove it. Markets are the aggregate of millions of variables that characterize its supply and demand.

But I'll tell you how I know news isn't an important factor: Bad news never stops a bull market, and good news never stops a bear market. People try to link every price move to news stories, just like the silly news media. But all they're doing is inventing justifications after the fact.

In a bearish market, the price is going to fall anyway, regardless of whatever bad news one tries to blame things on. Bearish = strong supply and weak demand, and downside momentum.

[crzy]

Pretty obvious of what? Price manipulation? Well, its possible but I think its really more on the ETF hype and speculation. We saw a great run in the past month but the price suddenly drops when the delays happen. If bitcoin hits another bottom its ok because I still believe bitcoin can still hit $8k this year, and go beyond that level. I will just buy at the dip and wait for a great bounce of bitcoin.

[Stedsm]

Pretty obvious of what? Price manipulation?

And what made you think that there was no price manipulation before?
It's been there since Bitcoin spiked from $1 to $30 and will remain till Bitcoin prevails.
Nobody can deny the fact that manipulation had always been one of the major reasons why Bitcoin soared and declined way too low after the bull runs.

Well, its possible but I think its really more on the ETF hype and speculation. We saw a great run in the past month but the price suddenly drops when the delays happen. If bitcoin hits another bottom its ok because I still believe bitcoin can still hit $8k this year, and go beyond that level. I will just buy at the dip and wait for a great bounce of bitcoin.

Truly, it was all ETF thing but was leverage-played carefully by the big players over common people's money by making them believe that ETF will get accepted and injecting a fake bull run, making them increase the values and make those big players some big money through leverage-trading (longs). Recent example was the OKEx scene where they got liquidated for their shorts and a whale who went long made hell lots of money, and even agreed to pay some for their losses. Frankly speaking, nobody here really knows where the dip is, so buying at any price gives us the opportunity to remain in BTC (be it today or tomorrow, the only advantage/disadvantage would be whether the price appreciates or declines).

[Herbert2020]

Anyone remember the 2013-2014 period? Don't you think we are seeing the same situation?

The Bitcoin price dropped from +$1,000 to +$200 within 1 year. The value had been divided by 5 so and then stayed around $200 or $300 with some occasional spikes during 2 years

If you compare with the ATH back in December at $20,000 and divide by 5, it gives $5000 and it's highly possible for December (or before) 2018 if you think about it. It will be the same duration and about the same months. If it effectively does like before and stays for 2 years it brings us to the next halving.

So finally, the Bitcoin value will be crawling around $5,000 with some occasional spikes ($6,000-$6,500) until we come to the next halving.
Does it make sense?

but there is a huge difference that you are forgetting about. today market is just recovering from a bubble and a bear market and lots of manipulative dumps.
but in 2014 all the things i just said were happening but also the market was recovering from two of the biggest incidents that damaged the market greatly. one was scam of Mt Gox, the biggest bitcoin exchange to date with 80% of the volume, and the other was silkroad and all that  crap closing down.
by that time money was just exiting the market with not much coming in but now money is coming it with not much exiting.

this is one of the main reasons why i don't think we can see a prolonged bear market and stay at this bottom for a very long time.

[teramit]

probably new bottom record like 4-5k than rise but not this months number.  i dont expect it to reach 8k again this year.

and why is that?
i am not saying you are right or wrong but i fail to understand the reason behind these two statements.
the evidence that we had so far are these:
- price fell down hard 3 times this year and each time it went to $6k couldn't break it and bounced back.
- this recent movement was from $6k to $8k and then back to $6.5k

do you have any other evidence/fact that i don't know about? and based on these how do you predict $4-5k as bottom?

if you asking bottom price it is because manipulators main purpose is take the price as below as possible. He has money and knowledge but market react as reverse force so every loop is try for his movements. Last loop was started from 6800 and ended with 5700 also have seen 10k as a summit.these numbers were below previous loop and it was below from previous. So every loop prices are going down.People is being convinced by manipulators that it is not rising in main trend. Every mid-term loop cerates a big main trend that is slowly going down. So we can expect bottom prices below previous one. I also predicted previous bottom prices top price times and trends very well you can see tham on my previous topics.6k is not a limit, manipulators try to change what you believe is limit, below or above so that they can earn money. Manip has a power it is like a monster each loop it grows more by feeding itself from panic sells and buys. Gaining power from waekness so every loop it can move market stronger, it bring down price collect btc and rises again and brings down again with that collected btcs. If you look at yearly graphic you can see manip is loosing its volatility , it cant earn too much money if price changing too fast and too much, but its powers has limit so market is fighting with that monster and general volatility is decreasing. So i expect this year last half will be more stable. I always say dont feed the monster. But traders are too small lack of knowledge according to him. So generaly we cant change too much. Thats why this year is so similar with 2014.

[valentinen39]

Pretty obvious of what? Price manipulation? Well, its possible but I think its really more on the ETF hype and speculation. We saw a great run in the past month but the price suddenly drops when the delays happen. If bitcoin hits another bottom its ok because I still believe bitcoin can still hit $8k this year, and go beyond that level. I will just buy at the dip and wait for a great bounce of bitcoin.

The etf hype is actually true, people today wants the price of cryptocurrency to drop so they can invest a huge amount and earn more profit when etf has already been implemented in the market.

[fabiorem]

if you asking bottom price it is because manipulators main purpose is take the price as below as possible. He has money and knowledge but market react as reverse force so every loop is try for his movements. Last loop was started from 6800 and ended with 5700 also have seen 10k as a summit.these numbers were below previous loop and it was below from previous. So every loop prices are going down.People is being convinced by manipulators that it is not rising in main trend. Every mid-term loop cerates a big main trend that is slowly going down. So we can expect bottom prices below previous one. I also predicted previous bottom prices top price times and trends very well you can see tham on my previous topics.6k is not a limit, manipulators try to change what you believe is limit, below or above so that they can earn money. Manip has a power it is like a monster each loop it grows more by feeding itself from panic sells and buys. Gaining power from waekness so every loop it can move market stronger, it bring down price collect btc and rises again and brings down again with that collected btcs. If you look at yearly graphic you can see manip is loosing its volatility , it cant earn too much money if price changing too fast and too much, but its powers has limit so market is fighting with that monster and general volatility is decreasing. So i expect this year last half will be more stable. I always say dont feed the monster. But traders are too small lack of knowledge according to him. So generaly we cant change too much. Thats why this year is so similar with 2014.

What do you propose to counter it? I have bought some fractions at 7k, should I sell those same fractions if it reaches 8k, and flow with this manipulation? Or should I hold, expecting that the manipulation will lose and price will go up? Remember that bitcoin is no ordinary asset. Its not a stock, nor PM.

[STT]

I'd say the only obvious thing is nobody knows for sure, that is the purpose of the market and exchanges to achieve price discovery over time.    We do not know for sure where supply meets and demand and sometimes its down to peoples opinions and possibly it can rely on future events.     Its very likely the bottom pricing to BTC will be found only be a series of price points over time, a process of wearing out sellers and exhausting supply.