BITCOIN UPDATE AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

[GeckoTrader]

The SEC’s decision to delay their ruling on a Bitcoin ETF has understandably made news headlines as cryptocurrency traders and investors alike await the verdict in anticipation.

It has been stated that this recent drop in BTC price is attributed to this decision but it is our view that it was going to happen anyway.

Back in July the $8,400 could not hold and since then, we have been in a steady decline. This is what happens in markets of all types.

As stated in my previous post, $7,129 could not hold and we are still expecting price to go lower, possibly hitting the $6,770 level, although BTC is currently flirting with $6,840 and is meeting some resistance there. It was at this price point which triggered the recent BTC bounce.

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[GeckoTrader]

The bulls put in a solid effort but it was becoming increasingly obvious after the $7,129 resistance could not be breached that we would be resuming the downtrend and returning to lower levels.

We can’t lay claim to the fact that we saw it dropping all the way down to $6,377 in one aggressive move, but we did foresee a drop coming.

With our short position opened at $6,850 now closed off at around $6,621, we’re certainly not complaining! 👍

[GeckoTrader]

BTC

It now seems evident that we are clearly in a wave 3 down which would mean the relief rally from 5800-8470 was a corrective ABC in nature, meaning that once this 5 wave down structure is complete, it is only the beginning of a larger correction and not the end.

We want to point out that We have no intention of buying the ensuing wave 4 but only looking to short any strength, preferably in the 6.6-6.7k region.

It is no secret we have been calling for an end of bear market target at 3.2k which has been brought up a few times before.

Whether this happens or not is trivial as we are active traders, and trade what we see, which in this current climate, there are not too many bull cases to be made.

Stay Update.

[GeckoTrader]

ETF Delay
By now I’m sure a lot of you would have felt the sting of the market’s overreaction to the SEC announcement of delaying the VanEck-SolidX Bitcoin ETF decision. The ETF is backed by the Chicago Board of Exchange BZX Equities Exchange (CBOE) and has been praised by the cryptocurrency community for its efforts in attracting institutional investment into the budding blockchain industry.

The Commission explained that the Securities Exchange Act provides that it can extend the 45 days period from publication if it finds it “appropriate to designate a longer period” so it has sufficient time to consider the proposed rule change.

“Accordingly, the Commission, pursuant to Section 19(b)(2) of the Act designates September 30, 2018, as the date by which the Commission shall either approve or disapprove, or institute proceedings to determine whether to disapprove, the proposed rule change.”

This move by the SEC is a positive sign in the opinion of the CIM team as it shows that the SEC is seriously considering the ETF application. The gears of bureaucracy are grinding away, they only way they know how – slowly. The SEC could have disregarded VanEck-SolidX BTC ETF application and focused their valuable time elsewhere, but instead they chose to allot more time to this matter. Think about that before you decide to panic sell.

Prominent CNBC crypto commentator Brian Kelly said “If you’re selling today after this decision, it’s the wrong way to do crypto investing. There is more to this story than just an ETF, A little spoiler alert: On September 30th, they will likely postpone it again because the market’s not ready for it and the SEC hasn’t had all the answers to their questions yet.” One of the more lucid comments to come out of the CNBC studio.

Other Numbers
We recently reported on the decline in cryptocurrency spending noting that it had dropped over 80% in the past year. Today the DEA came out and announced a 90% drop in the usage of cryptocurrencies in illicit black market trades. This may very well just be the DEA tooting their own proverbial horn but it would certainly explain some of the decrease in crytpocurrency spending. If the numbers are assumed to be correct then there has actually been an increase in the usage of BTC and other cryptocurrencies in e-commerce.

OTC brokerage firms have said that although volumes are down in cryptocurrency order books, the OTC market is still flourishing. Some OTC desks have estimated that OTC volume makes up at least 50% of the daily cryptocurrency volume traded daily. One of the reasons traders use OTC brokers is the expediency they offer to execute a trade, paid for in the form of a seller’s discount.
A reasonable barometer on the sentiment of sellers can be the amount of discount they offer on their trades. In March of this year sellers were offering discounts in the order of 7-8%, indicating the urgency with which they needed to get rid of their BTC. At the moment the discount rate is sitting at about 2%, a stark improvement from the situation in March.

The current situation seems to be better than March however, we are still in a bearish market and the discount rate could very well rise again. As such we are approaching with caution.

In the likely situation of another ETF delay the current bear trend could linger around for a while like a bad smell. As previously stated we will be shorting strength and diversifying risk out of our portfolio by going long on BNB too. #caveat

[GeckoTrader]

BTC bounced just shy of the 23-fib level and will as expected, continue its downward trajectory further. We’ll be keeping our eyes set on a few key levels as we make our descent - we could be in for a bit of turbulence.

As price nears $6,265, this will be a region to watch since we have historically bounced twice from here before. We are expecting price to break through without too much of a fight however and the next stop will likely be close to $6,100 - $6,000.

There may indeed be a bounce at this level as well and we will be looking closely to see how the price action unfolds.  There may be some short-term counter-trend trades which present themselves but we will also be looking for shorting entries as the prevailing bear trend ensues.

Buckle up ladies and gents

[GeckoTrader]

BTC climbing higher 

  BTC is slowly grinding higher and is making its way towards the top of the consolidation range. We’ve failed to break through $6,578 previously (and prior to this $6,537) so we will be looking to see if this slow crawl up can push through these points. Both $6,800 and $7,000 look like possible targets depending on the timeframe.

It is possible that BTC is in an ascending triangle - a breakout above could present an opportunity to go long to the levels mentioned above. A rejection and subsequent breakdown below could provide a good shorting opportunity to take back down to the $6,200 level or possibly lower as this is the prevailing direction of the overall trend.

[GeckoTrader]

Update on BITCOIN

Earlier today BTC dropped roughly 3.7%, falling from around $6,450 down into the $6,200 region. Price wicked the lower end of the support and consolidation zone and was propelled back higher in what is becoming the same old song and dance.   

Since the 9th of August, price has consolidated and launched out of this $6,200 zone at least three times. It is apparent that the bulls do not want price to go below this point but we have so far failed to garner the momentum to push above the resistance at $6,600.

Somethings got to give

This sideways action isn’t riveting by any stretch but the recent and uncharacteristic predictability of BTC price behaviour is presenting some opportunities to capitalise on price movement within the range.

Currently we are in a no trade zone but should price continue to climb higher to $6,580 or above, we will consider looking at placing some sell orders and ride it back down.




🚨The short squeeze🚨

It looks like the short squeeze has happened after all and is pretty much at our target area for shorts right now.

We are NOT shorting just yet, but rather looking for some kind of bearish rejection candle on 4h to confirm our theory.

[lzby2000]

The delay in ETF will only affect the price of Bitcoin and Encrypted Market in the short term. It will be a long bubble correction from the market point of view. I don't think ETF can absolutely improve the market at this stage. Encrypted Market only occurs after the market bubble disappears or there is a new breakthrough technology. It may rise again.

[GeckoTrader]

ETF Rejection

The Proshares ETF application was denied by the SEC.

The application required a rule change to be accepted by the SEC. When handing down their decision the SEC explained that the rules could not be changed and that the decision in no way means the SEC does not believe in the viability of blockchain technology.

The Proshares application included a long and a short $BTC product tied to $BTC futures contracts. It came as no surprise that the application was rejected as the Proshares products were tied to a highly volatile and leveraged 9 month old asset class.

It should also be noted that this product is not physically backed by $BTC.

This may play well into the hands of the Vaneck-SolidX application which is due to be decided in one months time.

The SEC is tasked with protecting retail investors. The Vaneck-SolidX ETF product has a unit size of 25 $BTC with a target audience of institutional investors.

In comparison to the failed attempts of previous ETF applications, the Vaneck-SolidX application appears far superior.

The proverbial red herring rejection today will undoubtedly send the market into a downward spiral, a great shorting opportunity.

BTC