If we want to be honest with ourselves then all the graphs do not make sense because we are only looking at the past, and there is no guarantee for the future.
Sure. All the extrapolation graphs and even more generally - any quantitative analysis - are just mind exercises, something to keep your intellect busy with. 99% of them will always turn false. I believe one can make some qualitative analysis though, with more chances for being correct.
Moreover, according to me, mining dump is the most important factor for the parabolic growth of bitcoin prices, because up to 27 months ago we had 3600 Btc available every day, while in about 18 months we will have 900 Btc per day, and yet within 10 years we will have ONLY 225 Btc every day; what's even more important is that in 1028, over 97% of all the bitcoins that have ever been available have already been extracted in 2028.
There are over 16 million people in the world who have a legacy of over
$ 1 million (in 2016) ..... how many of these do you think will want to own at least 1 Btc, and how much will they be willing to pay for it?
Well, sure you are entitled to your opinion. As BitHodler (posted above) noted, less BTC dumped does not equal to less USD pressure, so these seeminly logical calculations turn to be not that relevant.
My take on this is based on long-time observations on other PoW crypto coins. In general alts give us a unique possibility to study possible models for BTC performance, as some of them have shorter lifecycle (due to different block times, different block rewards, etc) and they have passed already many halving periods. "Alts" are kind of "alternativa e history" one could learn on. But that is a different topic I would not elaborate on.
What I have actually observed on alts - sure, constant mining pressure has distinctive effect, which expresses itself in constant suppression and slow price decrease during "idle" period. However all that is diminished by price moves done during development times - when a considerable improvement or adoption takes place. As a result the miners dump just makes an opportunity for a believer to buy cheap at the times when seemingly nothing happens... BUT
if there is a development and continued adoption, effect of mining pressure is practically negligible compared to price movement caused by those factors. The "if" in the previous sentence is a big one, but I really hope in case of Bitcoin I can count on those two factors being present.
Finally it is obvious that we can not and have not taken into account events beyond our logical analysis; it is obvious that if a world war breaks out it can change everything, as it is also true that if a solar flare arrives it fry all of them, or even a meteorite that leads us to the stone age, etc.
As you surely understand, I was not talking only about this kind of events. There are many macroeconomic events, which affect the fiat price drastically. The world is boiling. Probably living where I do, I am less prone to consider the world stable. I have seen a whole state (empire) crashing around me, when people were sure it is going to be there forever.
US struggles to keep its dominance, and with competitors rising in te east, it would have hard time keeping USD worth of anything.
I would say to focus on events and forecasts that we can work out with a certain logic, consistent with the mathematical models and the statistics that we have available today, always considering that the analysis and study of the graphs and past events is not guarantee and certainty for the future.
Heh, I've done those exercises a lot back then, while studying in university. Quite entertaining, but not much more than that...
That said, as I said in a previous post, I personally see bitcoin in 10 years from now under $ 100 or over $ 1000000, depending on any event external to it, and unpredictable for any analyst.
Not sure about exact numbers, but - yes, this is hard to disagree with. I would consider this more of a qualitative prediction though, despite of the fact there were numbers used
