Does the 2017 crash “feel” different than the 2014 crash?

[Pursuer]

obviously if you just look at "price going down" and nothing else  then they look and feel similar. specially to someone who called bitcoin "worthless internet money" at some point!

but if you look at the market situation, the reason, the sentiment of traders and the adoption that is going on you can see that the two of them are very different.

something funny that your topic reminded me of is the same exact topics of yours back in early 2017 (a year ago) where charts of that time were posted on top of charts of 2013-2014 and they claimed they look exactly the same. and that $1200 is the top and we should see a 3 year bear market

[tokeweed]

^  Lmao!  Yup.  And I have witnessed both crashes and I can def say they 'feel' exactly the same!  Losing def hurts...  A lot!  It's like feeling one big adrenaline dump and you realize that you've lost a lot of value.

[magneto]

I think that it's going to be similar to the 2014 crash.

It's not going to follow the exact same paths, but the patterns within both of these bear markets should be relatively the same, including the percentage decrease from the peak before prices bottom out finally (around 70-85% in both bear markets).

His feeling was that it was too saturated this time, that was the difference.

I disagree with this sentiment. Even though it seems like that we've already achieved mass adoption and demand is at its historical peak, I think that if you put this into a long term perspective, we're still in an early adopters phase. Institutional investors did not participate much within the last bull market, but are flooding in as the bear market ensues. This bear market could last for a few years, but i do expect a full recovery in price sooner or later, and also adoption picking up sooner or later as well.

[cellard]

If I remember correctly, MtGox was about 80% of the exchange market when the 2014 crash happened.

%87 drop to be precise:



So imagine a %87 drop within a totally clusterfucked fundamental analysis situation. I mean, the worst fundamentals you could come up with:

-Most coins concentrated into the hands of an amateur running an exchange
-Press left and right shitting on bitcoin
-People in power saying it's a scam daily and will die
-Fork wars already brewing in the horizon with gavin and co entering in conflict with the core roadmap
-Any hopes of scaling felt like vaporware (no LN etc)
-Halving years away so not even that bullish force happening anytime soon

It was really worst period on bitcoin by a long shot. Now everything feels way more solid. People panicking clearly don't understand how bad 2013 was, they lack proper perspective.

[timerland]

I'd say that yes, the crash this year seems to be relatively resemblant of the 2014 scenario.

If your father is suggesting that bitcoin would not be able to make a recovery from the bear market and establish a new all time high in the coming years, then I think that he is wrong. BTC is in its infancy still, and we're nowhere near the level of adoption and institutional investment in my opinion that we'll going to see in the next decade as bitcoin's user base continues to grow.

I think that prices will most likely start emerging out of the bear market by 2020, when the historically bullish halving event will be able to increase the level of bullish sentiment within the market. We're actually not seeing a decline in institutional interest, but rather the opposite. Despite the bear market, there is a general increase in institutional investment and development plans relating to bitcoin. That's why I believe buying now, at a level below $7k, is a good investment decision.