Kill Bitcoin with only 180 million USD?

[michaelzhang]

How much money does it need to kill Bitcoin? Let's try to figure out.

In this paper, the key attacking method is hashing power attracting attack. 51% attack is the final kick after winning the hashing power attraction war.

The attacking mode is similar to Doge vs Litecoin.

Newly-mined Bitcoin is 3600BTC/day, this worths about 2 million USD. If an  Altcoin’s daily new coin value is over 2 million USD, then it’s capable of attacking Bitcoin.

(1) if the new Altcoin halves every month, then the total market value of the new altcoin will be 2million x30x2 = 120 million, only 1/ 60 of Bitcoin; if a month’s attack fails, hashing power will halve in the second month, and price needs to be doubled, then the total market value will amount to 2 million x30x3 = 180 million, only 1 /40 of Bitcoin. Any market maker in the stock market has this amount of money.


(2) we need to consider miners’ choice when the new mine value of a new altcoin exceeds Bitcoin. Will Bitcoin miners turn to mine the new altcoin instead of Bitcoin?

If miners do, Bitcoin is dead. On the flip side, because the issue amount of the new altcoin is diminishing quickly, the miners may not have long-term rewards if they mine this new coin.

If miners stick to Bitcoin, it will be difficult to cover the cost of mining and they may lose money.

If I have old secondhand mining machines, I will definitely choose to mine coins with a higher rate of return. This way, all out-dated mining machines will mine the new altcoin;

New miners usually do not think about long-term interests, they only want to get their investment back as quickly as possible, so they will also choose to mine the new altcoin.

Worst of all, the market maker of the new altcoin can choose to purchase large quantities of mining machines, because he will buy out the newly-mined coins of the new altcoins anyway. If mining can get the mining machine investment back, it will actually cost him nothing if he mines by himself.

So, we come to a pessimistic conclusion: if the new market maker is fully prepared, the hashing power of the new coin will certainly exceed Bitcoin within one month.


(3) we need to consider the panic in the market once the hashing power of Bitcoin is exceeded.

Take Litecoin as an example, it’s hashing power has been exceeded for more than one month, but the price only dived slightly, no collapse.

But Bitcoin is not Litecoin.

Bitcoin has ultra-low turnover rate while Litecoin has ultra-high turnover rate.

Bitcoin has a lot of profit-making positions, while most Litecoin’s buyers are caught on top of the hill .

Bitcoin is the leader of cryptocurrency, while Litecoin is just one of many altcoins.

So, once Bitcoin’s hashing power is exceeded, a large number of "zombie Bitcoin" will be waked up , because the holders’ belief in Bitcoin has been shaken. In order to keep the fruits of victory, they would choose to sell. As long as they sell, the price will dive sharply, once this happens, more "zombie Bitcoin" will join the selling, the big panic of the market will probably lead to 10 times devaluation of Bitcoin. Once devaluated by 10 times, it hashing power will shrink by 10 times as a consequence.


(4) if the hashing power of Bitcoin is exceeded, will it be under a 51% attack?

Once the hashing power of Bitcoin is exceeded, all miners will lose hope, and they will choose to mine other coins with high returns. They will naturally choose "smart mining pool" which is, in fact, just a way of buying hashing power to do whatever it wants.

So, let’s see what needs to be done to launch a 51% attack against Bitcoin.

The purpose of the attack is to KILL Bitcoin rather than make profit through false trading.

So the most effective means of attack is empty blocks, that is, confirm no transactions.

Long time of blockage of transaction will inevitably cause panic among Bitcoin holders.

if the hashing power of smart mining pool or mining machines owned by the market maker is three times the hashing power of Bitcoin , then the market maker can launch a 51% attack , 2/3 is used for the attack , 1/3 for the new altcoin’s maintenance .

The time of the attack can be infinitely long, so Bitcoin holders will inevitably collapse. And its price is bound to collapse consequently.


(5), after Bitcoin is killed, how does the new market maker make profit?

When Bitcoin becomes history, the market still needs democurrency, and it can only choose this new altcoin. So a lot of people will buy in. Because 180 million USD is only half the market capitalization of Litecoin, the market maker is bound to make huge profits!


Sixth, will the new coin be killed by newer comers?

Bitcoin is easy to be killed because it has no market makers; its power is not concentrated.

But new altcoin (let’s call it altcoin A)'s market maker has a large number of mining machines and a lot of altcoin A in hand.

So if a newer coin (let’s call it altcoin B) is created, it is almost impossible to exceed altcoin  A in hashing power because of the following 3 reasons:

-1. Altcoin A's market maker has a large number of mining machines, that’s a lot of hashing power.

-2. if altcoin B’s reward is high, altcoin A market maker can buy the hashing power with a higher price, and the money can be obtained from the sale of altcoin A. But altcoin B’s market maker will have to spend more and more money to buy hashing power, all with his own money.

-3. Altcoin A's market maker can invent altcoin C to compete for hashing power.

Even if the hashing power of altcoin A is exceeded, the price will not fall because most altcoin A are in the hands of the market maker. But for altcoin B, because it’s newly-invented, the price will certainly be much lower than altcoin A. So long as altcoin A survives the first two times of halving of altcoin B, the market would no longer accept altcoin B .

So, if a “newer altcoin” wants to kill the “new altcoin”, the market maker will probably have to pay 10 times the price, about 2 billions of capital. And from the perspective of game theory, if a “newer coin” can kill the “new coin”, the newer coin can also be killed by late comers.

Conclusion: killing Bitcoin is absolutely feasible, the cost is only 180 million USD, and the killer will make huge profits.

Any tycoon wants to have a try in this century gamble? If you succeed, you will shoot to fame and stamp your name on the page of history!!

See the full version of this article, click here:
http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/english/376-how-much-money-do-you-need-to-kill-bitcoin

For more interesting and useful discussions and analysis, click here: http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/english

I'm sure you'll find more than you expect!~

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[BitThink]

No sha256 coin could survive if it wants to challenge BTC. Any of the big miners could kill it with 51% attack easily. Different from Scrypt coins, the sha256 hashing power is too concentrated on BTC to allow other sha256 coins to grow up.

[michaelzhang]

No sha256 coin could survive if it wants to challenge BTC. Any of the big miners could kill it with 51% attack easily. Different from Scrypt coins, the sha256 hashing power is too concentrated on BTC to allow other sha256 coins to grow up.

Oops, remember the attacker is a super tycoon with more than 180 million USD, he can start by spending, say, 100 million to purchase mining machines and become an individual who owns the most hashing power in the world, then no Bitcoin miner would be able to kill the new coin.

[A_Free_Man]

No sha256 coin could survive if it wants to challenge BTC. Any of the big miners could kill it with 51% attack easily. Different from Scrypt coins, the sha256 hashing power is too concentrated on BTC to allow other sha256 coins to grow up.

Oops, remember the attacker is a super tycoon with more than 180 million USD, he can start by spending, say, 100 million to purchase mining machines and become an individual who owns the most hashing power in the world, then no Bitcoin miner would be able to kill the new coin.

Those who produce the mining equipment also use it. He'd be funding them enough to expand their mining operations aswell.

[BitThink]

No sha256 coin could survive if it wants to challenge BTC. Any of the big miners could kill it with 51% attack easily. Different from Scrypt coins, the sha256 hashing power is too concentrated on BTC to allow other sha256 coins to grow up.

Oops, remember the attacker is a super tycoon with more than 180 million USD, he can start by spending, say, 100 million to purchase mining machines and become an individual who owns the most hashing power in the world, then no Bitcoin miner would be able to kill the new coin.

If he owns the most hashing power in the world, he could kill bitcoin with 51% attack already. However, I doubt 180 million is enough to achieve that.

[DubFX]

No sha256 coin could survive if it wants to challenge BTC. Any of the big miners could kill it with 51% attack easily. Different from Scrypt coins, the sha256 hashing power is too concentrated on BTC to allow other sha256 coins to grow up.

Oops, remember the attacker is a super tycoon with more than 180 million USD, he can start by spending, say, 100 million to purchase mining machines and become an individual who owns the most hashing power in the world, then no Bitcoin miner would be able to kill the new coin.

If he owns the most hashing power in the world, he could kill bitcoin with 51% attack already. However, I doubt 180 million is enough to achieve that.
It actually is.

[franky1]

no money in the world can kill bitcoin.. a $180mill buy up would kill the FIAT valuation. but then everyone with brains would buy that cheap coin and the FIAT valuation would recover.

emphasis on the fiat valuation. compared to the bitcoin protocol which can continue to run even if only 2 people out of 7billion people ran it.

unless there is a world wide internet blackout for the rest of time..... oh wait bitcoin can also work over radio waves.. hmm so a total world wide communications blackout would be needed.

put simply, you cant kill bitcoin

[Boussac]

Oops, remember the attacker is a super tycoon with more than 180 million USD, he can start by spending, say, 100 million to purchase mining machines and become an individual who owns the most hashing power in the world.

Anyone who has followed bitcoin news for some time knows that ordering mining gear and receiving delivery of mining gear do not happen the same day, to put it midly.
Performance is another variable.
So your tycoon is spending 100 million on mining gear (and on the facility to host the machines) but he has no idea if and when he will own the most hashing power.

[Lauda]

Stop spreading nonsense FUD. Nobody will try to do such a thing, and as time keeps flowing, it will become harder and harder to achieve.

[seriouscoin]

Hey OP,

Have you ever used your dumb brain to think ..." wasnt it easier to kill BTC back in 2011? with just a few millions USD in mining gear? ".

Hint for you, you're not ordinary.... go back to your cave and think harder.

[Lauda]

Hey OP,

Have you ever used your dumb brain to think ..." wasnt it easier to kill BTC back in 2011? with just a few millions USD in mining gear? ".

Hint for you, you're not ordinary.... go back to your cave and think harder.

I think that back in '11 even  $1M would have been enough.

[btcrich]

Conclusion: killing Bitcoin is absolutely feasible, the cost is only 180 million USD, and the killer will make huge profits.

If the killer managed to make huge profits, then Bitcoin would still be very much alive after he thinks he's killed Bitcoin.

The killer would need to buy up a vast amount of Bitcoins prior to any attack in order to make any waves with his attack. (you can't double spend 0 Bitcoin)  If someone were in possession of a great number of Bitcoins, why would he try to devalue it by attempting to kill it?

[michaelzhang]

No sha256 coin could survive if it wants to challenge BTC. Any of the big miners could kill it with 51% attack easily. Different from Scrypt coins, the sha256 hashing power is too concentrated on BTC to allow other sha256 coins to grow up.

Oops, remember the attacker is a super tycoon with more than 180 million USD, he can start by spending, say, 100 million to purchase mining machines and become an individual who owns the most hashing power in the world, then no Bitcoin miner would be able to kill the new coin.

If he owns the most hashing power in the world, he could kill bitcoin with 51% attack already. However, I doubt 180 million is enough to achieve that.

Many altcoins have been 51% attacked, but they didn't die.

[michaelzhang]

Oops, remember the attacker is a super tycoon with more than 180 million USD, he can start by spending, say, 100 million to purchase mining machines and become an individual who owns the most hashing power in the world.

Anyone who has followed bitcoin news for some time knows that ordering mining gear and receiving delivery of mining gear do not happen the same day, to put it midly.
Performance is another variable.
So your tycoon is spending 100 million on mining gear (and on the facility to host the machines) but he has no idea if and when he will own the most hashing power.

Owning the most hashing power is just a matter of time. If necessary, he can acquire most mining machine producers in the world and build his own research team to develop the most powerful mining machines in the world.

[michaelzhang]

Stop spreading nonsense FUD. Nobody will try to do such a thing, and as time keeps flowing, it will become harder and harder to achieve.

Oops, don't panic buddy, we are just discussing the possibility.

[michaelzhang]

Hey OP,

Have you ever used your dumb brain to think ..." wasnt it easier to kill BTC back in 2011? with just a few millions USD in mining gear? ".

Hint for you, you're not ordinary.... go back to your cave and think harder.

Hey moron,

Have you ever used your dumb brain to think, the article is talking about the possibility of killing BTC for the time being.

Hint for you, you're not ordinary... go back to elementary school and study harder.

[michaelzhang]

Conclusion: killing Bitcoin is absolutely feasible, the cost is only 180 million USD, and the killer will make huge profits.

If the killer managed to make huge profits, then Bitcoin would still be very much alive after he thinks he's killed Bitcoin.

The killer would need to buy up a vast amount of Bitcoins prior to any attack in order to make any waves with his attack. (you can't double spend 0 Bitcoin)  If someone were in possession of a great number of Bitcoins, why would he try to devalue it by attempting to kill it?

I suggest you read the article again, carefully.

[Lauda]

Oops, don't panic buddy, we are just discussing the possibility.

You're discussing FUD.
Theoretically you can kill Bitcoin, practically? No. What stops someone to fork 10 million more bitcoins after the first one gets attacked?
Let's move on now, shall we.

[dunand]

If you have 180 millions of mining hardware. You have 2 choices. Mine bitcoins and turn your investment into 250 millions (I would do that). Or try a 51% attack and turn your 180 millons hardware into 0 millions.

[marcotheminer]

No single person can 'kill' bitcoin.

[mprep]

No single person can 'kill' bitcoin.

Actually they can. Buying most BTC would do it. Although people would just pass on to another cryptocurrency.

[seriouscoin]

Conclusion: killing Bitcoin is absolutely feasible, the cost is only 180 million USD, and the killer will make huge profits.

If the killer managed to make huge profits, then Bitcoin would still be very much alive after he thinks he's killed Bitcoin.

The killer would need to buy up a vast amount of Bitcoins prior to any attack in order to make any waves with his attack. (you can't double spend 0 Bitcoin)  If someone were in possession of a great number of Bitcoins, why would he try to devalue it by attempting to kill it?

I suggest you read the article again, carefully.

I suggest you to suck Maos dick.... slowly.

[mprep]

Conclusion: killing Bitcoin is absolutely feasible, the cost is only 180 million USD, and the killer will make huge profits.

If the killer managed to make huge profits, then Bitcoin would still be very much alive after he thinks he's killed Bitcoin.

The killer would need to buy up a vast amount of Bitcoins prior to any attack in order to make any waves with his attack. (you can't double spend 0 Bitcoin)  If someone were in possession of a great number of Bitcoins, why would he try to devalue it by attempting to kill it?

I suggest you read the article again, carefully.

I suggest you to suck Maos dick.... slowly.

Such a mature discussion we have in here.

[Kiki112]

the thing that intrigues me here is the title

Kill Bitcoin with only 180 million USD?

yeah, what's 180 million USD, everyone has that amount of money and he can afford to spend them for fun just to destroy a cryptocurrency from which he will gain no profit, might as well transfer the coins to me

[fatnlovelyfred]

Interestiing thread according to recen news. Still I doubt that bitcoin is so easy to kill

[mprep]

Interestiing thread according to recen news. Still I doubt that bitcoin is so easy to kill

You kind of can, theoretically. You'd need to buy most currently existing Bitcoin and the ones not mined yet.

[umairbacklink]

The article is a fud. You cannot kill bitcoin with 180 million only. Do you know many mining machines you needed to 51% bitcoin? The time to manufacture all those miners. Do you know the miners manufacturers also mine bitcoins? By the time you have all the hardwares needed the difficulty of bitcoin raises up to 5 - 15 folds.

[mprep]

The article is a fud. You cannot kill bitcoin with 180 million only. Do you know many mining machines you needed to 51% bitcoin? The time to manufacture all those miners. Do you know the miners manufacturers also mine bitcoins? By the time you have all the hardwares needed the difficulty of bitcoin raises up to 5 - 15 folds.

Well maybe that's how much it takes to buy a large portion of all BTC.