Smoothie's Prediction of timing of next capitulation event etc

[igorr]

Drop coming !

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[dnaleor]

Smoothie -

Care to make a prediction, will bitcoinbuilder participants get their coins out of Gox?  : -)

Best case scenario - GOX turns on withdrawals with limits of 1 BTC per day and 10 btc per month.

That's what worries me about  the BTC builder,if one does not have a personal Gox acct it might take forever to get coins out of the BTC builders Gox account because there will be so many in the same boat ...

Unless of course someone then sets up an arbitrage website to get coins out of BTC builder : -)

LOL

[Einewton]

Where can I see this graph? This is a pretty sweet graph..

I'm looking around but can't find it. Is this a thick client app or something?

[igorr]

Where can I see this graph? This is a pretty sweet graph..

I'm looking around but can't find it. Is this a thick client app or something?

https://www.tradingview.com

[Raize]

I'll take this bet. Meaning 2 BTC goes to me if Bitstamp or BTC-e hit an ATH on their respective exchanges based on the past price history on those exchanges on or before July 31st, 2014. If the price on BTC-e goes higher than its ATH as recorded on the charts etc and same goes for Bitstamp, I win. Otherwise I lose and 2 BTC goes to you.

BTC-e ATH = $1095.20

BITSTAMP ATH = $1163.00



THIS IS A MANDATORY ESCROW BET. ESCROW WILL BE SALTYSPITOON.

I'll do this bet with one person only.

First one to accept the terms I've listed above will be the one I bet with.

@Wuttwutt, you can take this bet if you have a set. lol

Okay, how long do we want to give wuttwutt to take it before we make it our own? I'll give him 24 hours or so.

[smoothie]

I'll take this bet. Meaning 2 BTC goes to me if Bitstamp or BTC-e hit an ATH on their respective exchanges based on the past price history on those exchanges on or before July 31st, 2014. If the price on BTC-e goes higher than its ATH as recorded on the charts etc and same goes for Bitstamp, I win. Otherwise I lose and 2 BTC goes to you.

BTC-e ATH = $1095.20

BITSTAMP ATH = $1163.00



THIS IS A MANDATORY ESCROW BET. ESCROW WILL BE SALTYSPITOON.

I'll do this bet with one person only.

First one to accept the terms I've listed above will be the one I bet with.

@Wuttwutt, you can take this bet if you have a set. lol

Okay, how long do we want to give wuttwutt to take it before we make it our own? I'll give him 24 hours or so.

Let's give him another 24 hours.

He has gone silent as expected. Usually appears to be the case when a newb gets called out with an escrowed bet. Let's see his response, if any.

[smoothie]

I'll take this bet. Meaning 2 BTC goes to me if Bitstamp or BTC-e hit an ATH on their respective exchanges based on the past price history on those exchanges on or before July 31st, 2014. If the price on BTC-e goes higher than its ATH as recorded on the charts etc and same goes for Bitstamp, I win. Otherwise I lose and 2 BTC goes to you.

BTC-e ATH = $1095.20

BITSTAMP ATH = $1163.00



THIS IS A MANDATORY ESCROW BET. ESCROW WILL BE SALTYSPITOON.

I'll do this bet with one person only.

First one to accept the terms I've listed above will be the one I bet with.

@Wuttwutt, you can take this bet if you have a set. lol

Okay, how long do we want to give wuttwutt to take it before we make it our own? I'll give him 24 hours or so.

Let's give him another 24 hours.

He has gone silent as expected. Usually appears to be the case when a newb gets called out with an escrowed bet. Let's see his response, if any.

To be more thorough and fair I PMed Wuttwutt yesterday about the bet.

So far, no reply. 

[keithers]

agreed, two months is too wide a range, we're in a major period of price discovery at the moment, and I expect we'll find capitulation within the next week. Two months is pretty much guaranteed.

feb 29th it will be 5 figures

It already is 5 figures if you count the cents behind the decimal point

[Skinnkavaj]

Smoothie you are really good at this I must say. Instantly when we had this huge crash on btc I remembered your 650 USD post.

[UnDerDoG81]

Amen! I missed the 540 on stamp and I would love to get cheap coins

What is your prediction? Will we go under 500? And why should we go up again then?

What is your prediction about the actual situation? Should I buy @600 to make quick cash? Or too dangerous?

[smoothie]

Amen! I missed the 540 on stamp and I would love to get cheap coins

What is your prediction? Will we go under 500? And why should we go up again then?

What is your prediction about the actual situation? Should I buy @600 to make quick cash? Or too dangerous?

I'm not here to give financial advice.

But I would be stocking up at these levels and waiting also for the price to back to the $400 to $500 (hopefully).

Won't matter if getting coins at $500 or $600 if price gets to $5000 at year end.

But then again invest at your own risk.

[Cassius]

Any thoughts on the recent rise back above $600? I'd have written it off if it weren't for the apparent optimism on Gox ($300+).

[bitrider]

However my daughter expects pretty much the same scenario as smoothie - with some adjustments.

My 7 yo daughter predicts:

Grinding capitulation back to the 200 ema with 1 or 2 flash crashes below (to 400-500) - all before end of April, or sooner. She then expects we will ride the 200EMA until the first explosive jump to ATH in mid to late June/July. Then a strong pullback to 1200 before the next explosive rise to 5k-7k levels in Sept/October (might even hit 10k) before correcting to 4k-5k levels by the end of the year. This is what will happen. She is not guessing. She knows know for sure. She said it is true so you should place your bets accordingly.

[Raize]

This is what will happen. She is not guessing. She knows know for sure. She said it is true so you should place your bets accordingly.

If this is true, I'll just capitulate to Smoothie right now. I'm too afraid to take a bet of this nature if your daughter is certain, too.

[smoothie]

However my daughter expects pretty much the same scenario as smoothie - with some adjustments.

My 7 yo daughter predicts:

Grinding capitulation back to the 200 ema with 1 or 2 flash crashes below (to 400-500) - all before end of April, or sooner. She then expects we will ride the 200EMA until the first explosive jump to ATH in mid to late June/July. Then a strong pullback to 1200 before the next explosive rise to 5k-7k levels in Sept/October (might even hit 10k) before correcting to 4k-5k levels by the end of the year. This is what will happen. She is not guessing. She knows know for sure. She said it is true so you should place your bets accordingly.

Wow I must say if my daughter were doing the same thing I would be telling her she needs to worry about "kid" things and not adult things.

Great parenting skills from bitrider. 

[kireinaha]

agreed, two months is too wide a range, we're in a major period of price discovery at the moment, and I expect we'll find capitulation within the next week. Two months is pretty much guaranteed.

Totally called it.

[Elwar]

Next Capitulation to occur between now and Mid April 2014.

Soon there after price will rise steadily to reach new ATH's by mid June 2014.

After that is all "CHOOOOOOOOO CHOOOOOOO".

Let the record show that the first half of Smoothie's prediction was right.

MtGox closing caused the price to drop to $400/BTC.

Good call Smoothie.

[Cassius]

Next Capitulation to occur between now and Mid April 2014.

Soon there after price will rise steadily to reach new ATH's by mid June 2014.

After that is all "CHOOOOOOOOO CHOOOOOOO".

Let the record show that the first half of Smoothie's prediction was right.

MtGox closing caused the price to drop to $400/BTC.

Good call Smoothie.

Assuming that was capitulation (seems like it probably was, but we're not going to know for sure just yet): good call indeed.

agreed, two months is too wide a range, we're in a major period of price discovery at the moment, and I expect we'll find capitulation within the next week. Two months is pretty much guaranteed.

Totally called it.

And you sir.

Real question now is how fast it will recover. Gox I think was largely priced in over the last few weeks. China pulling out made virtually no long-term dent in prices.

Anyone care to put a date on the next ATH?