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Author Topic: SEC plays with ETF!  (Read 239 times)
Jolly_Trader
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August 12, 2018, 07:50:30 AM
Merited by Jekbolt (2), Buranyas (1), echeverialavi (1)
 #1

SEC has the right to postpone the adoption of the decision.

1) for 45 days in case more time is needed for studying
2) another 90 days to justify the rejection of the application
3) and another 60 days, if again more time is needed to study the documents submitted
Total 195 days

In addition, there is an application from another stock exchange NYSE Arch. SEC's conclusion regarding ETF should appear no later than September 21, as this decision was already postponed.

What does it mean? Most likely September 21, SEC will report a negative decision and the price of bitcoin will fall dramatically. The decision on the application of CBOE will be delayed again and again, but in the end a positive decision will be made, causing a rapid increase in prices.

All this means that we have not reached the bottom of 2018  Sad
I really want to be wrong, but logic tells me the opposite.

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August 12, 2018, 01:26:24 PM
 #2

All this means that we have not reached the bottom of 2018  Sad
Do you mean levels below $ 5500 ?, It is not expected to happen.

About three weeks ago, "before the news about Khalid," the price was around $ 6,200, after which the price plummeted to $ 8000 due to optimism and then returned to the same levels after the postponement decision.

So it will be repeated until the decision to reject or accept "which leads to a rise above $ 8000 or fall below $ 6000" in the short-term only.

In the long-term: the price will recover and start to rise again to over $ 10,000, especially if the lightning network is activated but the real question is when?

ETF or others are the reasons that lead to increases in the short-term only.

If you're afraid of the price, the real trader knows how to gain from both falling and rising "you could earn $ 2000 from last week."

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August 12, 2018, 04:39:11 PM
 #3

All this means that we have not reached the bottom of 2018  Sad
Do you mean levels below $ 5500 ?, It is not expected to happen.

About three weeks ago, "before the news about Khalid," the price was around $ 6,200, after which the price plummeted to $ 8000 due to optimism and then returned to the same levels after the postponement decision.

So it will be repeated until the decision to reject or accept "which leads to a rise above $ 8000 or fall below $ 6000" in the short-term only.

In the long-term: the price will recover and start to rise again to over $ 10,000, especially if the lightning network is activated but the real question is when?

ETF or others are the reasons that lead to increases in the short-term only.

If you're afraid of the price, the real trader knows how to gain from both falling and rising "you could earn $ 2000 from last week."

We can't say the price will keep sticking to this $6000 level when there is accept and rejection happening because people have different mindset at different time so there are chance for more fall too if the ETF get rejected by more.

We can use this volatilty as well to earn money but for that we need to have trading skills as well as luck too.

*I think this thread needs to be in Speculation section.

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August 12, 2018, 05:36:45 PM
 #4

SEC has the right to postpone the adoption of the decision.

1) for 45 days in case more time is needed for studying
2) another 90 days to justify the rejection of the application
3) and another 60 days, if again more time is needed to study the documents submitted
Total 195 days

In addition, there is an application from another stock exchange NYSE Arch. SEC's conclusion regarding ETF should appear no later than September 21, as this decision was already postponed.

What does it mean? Most likely September 21, SEC will report a negative decision and the price of bitcoin will fall dramatically. The decision on the application of CBOE will be delayed again and again, but in the end a positive decision will be made, causing a rapid increase in prices.

All this means that we have not reached the bottom of 2018  Sad
I really want to be wrong, but logic tells me the opposite.

A decision like Bitcoin ETF takes time to take. 195 days is nothing and it will be delayed further and probably the final decision will be negative. Because SEC has a good reputation of playing double faced games. We should not have any dependency on SEC's decision. I believe a lot of experience members will support my thinking process here because none of the proposed ETFs are for the general people. They are all made for institutional investors and in many cases we don't know whether they are synthetic or physical.

We are running high on an absolute lie which should be avoided at all costs for the betterment of cryptos itself. When bitcoin reached 22k back in 2017, we didn't need SEC's support so why would we need now? The less dependency we have on the regulatory decisions, the better!

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August 12, 2018, 07:18:54 PM
 #5

It doesn't and with 195 days. Remember if the worst case scenario reached at 195 days from rejection to rejection of they really want to push through with the ETFs they can push their appeal to the legal court. Now from what the case will be it will depend to them. But I don't expect that the SEC will want to go to that point as they will be both burning taxpayers' money by doing so. It is really in their hands if they want to push that far and they might need to think twice if they are now in the face of the legal court.

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August 12, 2018, 07:21:32 PM
 #6

All this means that we have not reached the bottom of 2018  Sad
Do you mean levels below $ 5500 ?, It is not expected to happen.

About three weeks ago, "before the news about Khalid," the price was around $ 6,200, after which the price plummeted to $ 8000 due to optimism and then returned to the same levels after the postponement decision.

So it will be repeated until the decision to reject or accept "which leads to a rise above $ 8000 or fall below $ 6000" in the short-term only.

In the long-term: the price will recover and start to rise again to over $ 10,000, especially if the lightning network is activated but the real question is when?

ETF or others are the reasons that lead to increases in the short-term only.

If you're afraid of the price, the real trader knows how to gain from both falling and rising "you could earn $ 2000 from last week."


You are too fixated about the price. The ETF is just one of the factors influencing the price. I agree that if an ETF is approved, it could result in a lot of money flowing into Bitcoin. But you have multiple other factors, including debates within the bitcoin community, whales selling, Trump unsettling global markets, etc.


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August 12, 2018, 10:19:51 PM
 #7

SEC has the right to postpone the adoption of the decision.

1) for 45 days in case more time is needed for studying
2) another 90 days to justify the rejection of the application
3) and another 60 days, if again more time is needed to study the documents submitted
Total 195 days

And then after that, they can reject the application, and then applicants would be sent back to square one, trying to figure out how to appease the SEC. Personally, I think the SEC commissioners -- most of them -- want to see the markets mature for a while before approving an ETF.

That's just fine, really. An ETF -- like the CME cash-settled futures -- doesn't really matter.

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August 13, 2018, 01:17:33 AM
 #8

SEC has the right to postpone the adoption of the decision.

1) for 45 days in case more time is needed for studying
2) another 90 days to justify the rejection of the application
3) and another 60 days, if again more time is needed to study the documents submitted
Total 195 days

In addition, there is an application from another stock exchange NYSE Arch. SEC's conclusion regarding ETF should appear no later than September 21, as this decision was already postponed.

What does it mean? Most likely September 21, SEC will report a negative decision and the price of bitcoin will fall dramatically. The decision on the application of CBOE will be delayed again and again, but in the end a positive decision will be made, causing a rapid increase in prices.

All this means that we have not reached the bottom of 2018  Sad
I really want to be wrong, but logic tells me the opposite.

Well done. This went over the heads of many, but it's actually been this way since the beginning.

However I don't think this means there's going to be a negative decision regarding the Bitcoin ETF. The SEC (as far as I'm aware) have a habit of delaying decisions, regardless of their decision.

The ETF is being made too big a deal of at the moment. The last ETF to get approved was (I think) copper. Copper's been around for millions of years. Bitcoin's not even ten yet. Bitcoin ETF gets rejected? So what?
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August 13, 2018, 12:45:51 PM
 #9

The ETF is being made too big a deal of at the moment. The last ETF to get approved was (I think) copper. Copper's been around for millions of years. Bitcoin's not even ten yet. Bitcoin ETF gets rejected? So what?

I think that's mostly because of news outlets reporting that the ETF is going to happen for sure. People got overexcited, prices surged, it got shot down, prices plummeted, and now everyone's clamoring for more. Most people probably don't even know what it is, just that it may help prices recover.

I personally don't care, but it might be nice just for the positive press.

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August 13, 2018, 10:38:58 PM
 #10

The ETF is being made too big a deal of at the moment. The last ETF to get approved was (I think) copper. Copper's been around for millions of years. Bitcoin's not even ten yet. Bitcoin ETF gets rejected? So what?

I'm amazed that most people think it's a slam dunk for approval -- and soon. Some ETFs take years for approval as it is; this is an asset class that didn't exist 10 years ago! Cheesy

I personally don't care, but it might be nice just for the positive press.

True, but there are downsides. I think it'll encourage more and more bad practices among investors and institutions/brokers/exchanges. Increasing amounts of investors will buy securities rather than BTC. We know how that can end.

Quote
Leverage financialization also improves liquidity, but it does so artificially.

“In the negative context, it means liquidity is improving but it’s coming from the bad kind of leverage—paper claims to an asset that aren’t backed by the asset itself, or “circulation credit” as economist Ludwig von Mises calls it,” says Long.

The Wall Street exec went on to point out that fractional reserve banking doesn’t only occur where the Federal Reserve creates money from nothing, explaining how most of the credit created since the 1980s has been created in securities markets, not in the traditional banking system.  Securities market credit is in the form of paper to assets, usually piled on top of other paper claims to assets, just as banking system credit is.

“And this is what I worry will happen to bitcoin—paper claims, piled upon paper claims, piled upon paper claims to the actual bitcoin.”

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August 21, 2018, 08:16:40 PM
 #11

All this means that we have not reached the bottom of 2018  Sad
Do you mean levels below $ 5500 ?, It is not expected to happen.

We can easily break $5,500. For this there are several "positive" events:

August 23 - ETF ProShares
September 7 - Bitwise
September 21 - Direxion
September 30 - CBOE VanEck/SolidX

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August 21, 2018, 08:38:13 PM
 #12

The ETF is being made too big a deal of at the moment. The last ETF to get approved was (I think) copper. Copper's been around for millions of years. Bitcoin's not even ten yet. Bitcoin ETF gets rejected? So what?

I think that's mostly because of news outlets reporting that the ETF is going to happen for sure. People got overexcited, prices surged, it got shot down, prices plummeted, and now everyone's clamoring for more. Most people probably don't even know what it is, just that it may help prices recover.

I personally don't care, but it might be nice just for the positive press.
75% are just those people who just go with the flow with that ETF issue. We cant really say that the price wont really go down to new lower lows when theres a rejection yet this market do majority depends on investors emotions and most of us do know that thing. We don't know on whats actually on their minds but we should think up positively about these delays. There still chance for approval even most of people do have negative presumptions.
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August 22, 2018, 09:06:50 AM
 #13

SEC has the right to postpone the adoption of the decision.

1) for 45 days in case more time is needed for studying
2) another 90 days to justify the rejection of the application
3) and another 60 days, if again more time is needed to study the documents submitted
Total 195 days

In addition, there is an application from another stock exchange NYSE Arch. SEC's conclusion regarding ETF should appear no later than September 21, as this decision was already postponed.

What does it mean? Most likely September 21, SEC will report a negative decision and the price of bitcoin will fall dramatically. The decision on the application of CBOE will be delayed again and again, but in the end a positive decision will be made, causing a rapid increase in prices.

All this means that we have not reached the bottom of 2018  Sad
I really want to be wrong, but logic tells me the opposite.

This is absolutely no matter what SEC will decide. The price is totally manipulated by big holders. All that you can do is to try to make trading decision based on technical analysis.
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August 22, 2018, 09:53:10 AM
 #14

SEC has the right to postpone the adoption of the decision.

1) for 45 days in case more time is needed for studying
2) another 90 days to justify the rejection of the application
3) and another 60 days, if again more time is needed to study the documents submitted
Total 195 days

In addition, there is an application from another stock exchange NYSE Arch. SEC's conclusion regarding ETF should appear no later than September 21, as this decision was already postponed.

What does it mean? Most likely September 21, SEC will report a negative decision and the price of bitcoin will fall dramatically. The decision on the application of CBOE will be delayed again and again, but in the end a positive decision will be made, causing a rapid increase in prices.

All this means that we have not reached the bottom of 2018  Sad
I really want to be wrong, but logic tells me the opposite.

I also share in the same fear because when much attention is given to the decision of SEC, the outcome whether postponement or rejection is going to be fatal and considering the current level of price, this might not be the lowest we would see except there is some serious increase in price so that when the decision is made, the negative effect will only bring it back to the current situation we have now. The more reason why I always advocate that we should shift attention to other things but unfortunately, that won't work for majority of people.

What I see here is SEC exercising its allowance to the fullest without being seen a anti-development in that by the time they are making their decision, if its negative, they justify their decisions that they have taken their time to do a detailed study before arriving at such decision while if its negative, they would be hailed for arriving at such landmark decision. I am not too hopeful for the latter though.

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August 22, 2018, 01:45:23 PM
 #15

Now the most important is not the consideration of the SEC application from CMOE tomorrow's final decision on ETF from ProShares. If they are rejected again, I am sure that we will see a new bottom.
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August 29, 2018, 08:16:04 PM
 #16

SEC has the right to postpone the adoption of the decision.

1) for 45 days in case more time is needed for studying
2) another 90 days to justify the rejection of the application
3) and another 60 days, if again more time is needed to study the documents submitted
Total 195 days

In addition, there is an application from another stock exchange NYSE Arch. SEC's conclusion regarding ETF should appear no later than September 21, as this decision was already postponed.

What does it mean? Most likely September 21, SEC will report a negative decision and the price of bitcoin will fall dramatically. The decision on the application of CBOE will be delayed again and again, but in the end a positive decision will be made, causing a rapid increase in prices.

All this means that we have not reached the bottom of 2018  Sad
I really want to be wrong, but logic tells me the opposite.

This is absolutely no matter what SEC will decide. The price is totally manipulated by big holders. All that you can do is to try to make trading decision based on technical analysis.

Well, why. This will affect the price. Negative decision - price reduction, a positive decision - price increase. But dont wait for the price to fly to heaven / moon.
In near future price of BTC will be in range $ 5000- $ 9000 depending on SEC's decision

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August 30, 2018, 08:35:33 AM
 #17

I'm also confident that the price of bitcoin will not fall below $5500. In addition, the SEC decision will be postponed to a later time, but will not be rejected. That is, sooner or later, the ETF will be approved.

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August 30, 2018, 12:17:05 PM
 #18

The ETF is being made too big a deal of at the moment. The last ETF to get approved was (I think) copper. Copper's been around for millions of years. Bitcoin's not even ten yet. Bitcoin ETF gets rejected? So what?

I think that's mostly because of news outlets reporting that the ETF is going to happen for sure. People got overexcited, prices surged, it got shot down, prices plummeted, and now everyone's clamoring for more. Most people probably don't even know what it is, just that it may help prices recover.

I personally don't care, but it might be nice just for the positive press.
They are hyping the market using this ETF things, but in reality its really useless because IMO bitcoin can still go high even without it. But I know bitcoin will not hit $5k level again, that is too much dump for bitcoin. Maybe we need more time to recover but we will still be on top at the right time. Hopefully, people will be more knowledgeable enough this time so they will not be fool easily by any news.

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August 30, 2018, 01:31:42 PM
 #19

Yes etf is being made a big deal as if btc will vanish without it. With or without etf bitcoin's strength is solid as a rock. The etf is being used to control bitcoin's price. And we members of btc community should stay firm and not get affected by the negative effect of etf delay or whatever.

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August 30, 2018, 03:51:05 PM
 #20

Yes etf is being made a big deal as if btc will vanish without it. With or without etf bitcoin's strength is solid as a rock. The etf is being used to control bitcoin's price. And we members of btc community should stay firm and not get affected by the negative effect of etf delay or whatever.

Because majority thinks that having a ETF will bring the newer cash to the ecosystem to push the price to another all-time-high. But what they really don't know it that it will open up a whole new cans of worms, specially price manipulation. Clearly, it might nudge the price a little higher, but long run though, might have a negative effect. Its a double edge-sword so to speak. So I'm also have a mix emotions about Bitcoin ETF's in the future.

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