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Author Topic: Old Highs, New lows, what to make of all this action.  (Read 1320 times)
adamstgBit
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October 18, 2011, 02:23:49 AM
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Today bitcoin took a big blow 2 major sell offs happened, driving the price from 3.75 to 2.25.

why did this happen?
   it would seem 2 big players cashed out

will this happen again?
   there are many more "big players", so yes! they will cash out sooner or later...

will this "sell while you still can" trend, lead us all the way down to under 10 cents?
   at the moment it would seem that there are more poeple jumping out, then getting in.
   it is my belief that there is a core of bitcoin players that will never go away. these people bought a fair amount of bitcoin at a low price, these days the core has very little effect on the market because they aren't buying or selling... they are holding.  


holding an unknown amount of bitcoin.
the price could drop to 10cents and still the core will not fold.
new players will buy all the coins being sold at 10 cents very quickly
a select few of these new players will become part of the core.
the core will grow, slowly but surely.
the price my bounce back to new highs
the core will not fold.

anyone think the same thing?
are you part of the core??

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julz
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October 18, 2011, 03:47:52 AM
 #2

will this "sell while you still can" trend, lead us all the way down to under .01 cents?

.01 cents would mean it would only cost about $750 to buy up all the bitcoins that have so far been issued - sounds far fetched.

Even .01 dollars  would mean it's only $75000 to buy them all up, so I suspect that there are more than enough bitcoin 'enthusiasts' to snap them up before that level.


edit: by the way.. do you, or have you ever worked for verizon?


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adamstgBit
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October 18, 2011, 04:34:19 AM
 #3


.01 cents would mean it would only cost about $750 to buy up all the bitcoins that have so far been issued - sounds far fetched.

Even .01 dollars  would mean it's only $75000 to buy them all up, so I suspect that there are more than enough bitcoin 'enthusiasts' to snap them up before that level.


edit: by the way.. do you, or have you ever worked for verizon?


lol i fixed my dollars and cents :p

and yes that's my point exactly. the lower the prices the faster "new players" buy them up.


Red
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October 18, 2011, 05:54:22 AM
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holding an unknown amount of bitcoin.
the price could drop to 10cents and still the core will not fold.
new players will buy all the coins being sold at 10 cents very quickly
a select few of these new players will become part of the core.
the core will grow, slowly but surely.
the price my bounce back to new highs
the core will not fold.

anyone think the same thing?
are you part of the core??

Really? Suppose bitcoin fell to 10 cents and someone with $750,000 decided to buy up every available bitcoin from the desperate. Of course "the core" wouldn't sell but suppose everyone else did. Now say what is left is a bitcoin community where a dozen guys hold 7.5 million BTC.

Doesn't that completely change the character of bitcoin? You seem to be saying that is OK, because certainly everything will eventually bounce back.

That seems highly implausible to me.

How is your situation any different from starting a newCoin with a pre-gen of 7.5 million out of 21 million coins given to the same dozen individuals? Would you join a newCoin system if it was founded that way?

 I certainly wouldn't.


Minsc
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October 18, 2011, 05:55:54 AM
 #5

It just seems unnaturally low here, like it's bound to go back up to $5.  It may take time for it to happen though.  It may fall more first, but it just seems so unnaturally low here.  I wish I wasn't broke or I'd buy a lot.

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MaxSan
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October 18, 2011, 08:32:36 AM
 #6

It just seems unnaturally low here, like it's bound to go back up to $5.  It may take time for it to happen though.  It may fall more first, but it just seems so unnaturally low here.  I wish I wasn't broke or I'd buy a lot.

Yeh I second that. Id I had a few hundread spare id buy some up for sure.

zby
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October 18, 2011, 08:37:14 AM
 #7

It just seems unnaturally low here, like it's bound to go back up to $5.  It may take time for it to happen though.  It may fall more first, but it just seems so unnaturally low here.  I wish I wasn't broke or I'd buy a lot.

Yeh I second that. Id I had a few hundread spare id buy some up for sure.



It's a pity that only those that already used all of their USDs are now ready to buy.
fivebells
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October 18, 2011, 09:59:46 AM
 #8

Today bitcoin took a big blow 2 major sell offs happened, driving the price from 3.75 to 2.25.

why did this happen?
   it would seem 2 big players cashed out
Someone highly motivated to advance widespread bitcoin adoption flounced off the social scene recently.  Of course, that could be a coincidence.  But the extremely inefficient unloading of tens of thousands of bitcoins does look like a comparable emotional reaction...
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October 18, 2011, 01:51:03 PM
 #9

I don't think it will ever drop much below 1$ because that would mean that even small players could buy significant amounts of coins.

If that still happened I know what I would do. I would sell everything I don't need and even borrow some small amounts from friends. I could easily get some thousands of $ or so together and then have have thousands of bitcoins. It would be a great opportunity for me since I missed out on the early adopter stage. I think there are many people out there like me who think so too.

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adamstgBit
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October 18, 2011, 09:00:52 PM
 #10

Quote


Really? Suppose bitcoin fell to 10 cents and someone with $750,000 decided to buy up every available bitcoin from the desperate. Of course "the core" wouldn't sell but suppose everyone else did. Now say what is left is a bitcoin community where a dozen guys hold 7.5 million BTC.



ok if someone buy 100 bitcoins at 10 cents each ... the next 100 bitcoins will cost him 50cents, the next 100 bitcoins will cost 1$ each, the next 2$.....
and it stupid to think only 1 person will have the bright idea of buying low ..... try 1000 new people all buying low.

bitcoin is used by poeple all over the world,

 there's a lot of small players
 theirs a lot of big believers,
 theirs a lot of investors,
 all these poeple aren't about to disappear ..


Red
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October 18, 2011, 09:27:22 PM
 #11

bitcoin is used by poeple all over the world,

 there's a lot of small players
 theirs a lot of big believers,
 theirs a lot of investors,
 all these poeple aren't about to disappear ..

Perhaps I misunderstood what you meant by "core". But the crux of your post seemed to be, "It doesn't mater if the core is small, so long as the core exists."

The point I'm trying to make is, this core size does matter. Not to the "core members" themselves, but to the perceptions of those you expect to come later.

If your core was say 500 individuals who owned the current 7,500,000 BTC. That would likely be viewed quite hostilely by the majority of the billion or so individuals you wish to attract to Bitcoin.

If your core was 5,000,000 individuals owning the current 7,500,000 BTC. Then the next billion adopters are less likely to view Bitcoin as benefitting the BTC rich, at the expense of the BTC poor.
Are-you-a-wizard?
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October 18, 2011, 09:46:38 PM
 #12

If your core was 5,000,000 individuals owning the current 7,500,000 BTC. Then the next billion adopters are less likely to view Bitcoin as benefitting the BTC rich, at the expense of the BTC poor.

We are the 99%...
Red
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October 18, 2011, 09:50:37 PM
 #13

We are the 99%...

Exactly
adamstgBit
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October 18, 2011, 10:05:51 PM
 #14


i think the core (people that wont sell if it hits 0$ or 100$) holds about 10% of the bitcoins

50% , buy and selling bitcoin every 10 mins like crazy mad fools
20% , buying bitcoin waiting for a new high to sell at
20% , big money trying to play the market
10% , the core

Red
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October 19, 2011, 12:31:26 AM
 #15

i think the core (people that wont sell if it hits 0$ or 100$) holds about 10% of the bitcoins

Fair enough.

I'm just concerned with the general Pollyanna view that everything can contract now, but eventually those one billion new adopters will come around. My basic map shows that not all paths lead to global adoption. Between now and next December's 50% coin generation point, if adoption doesn't get significantly broader, it never will.
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