Technical Analysis Contest With Merit Rewards

[TomCrypto]

Being a fan of Technical Analysis I would like to launch a contest on this matter with merit rewards.

If you want to participate to this contest here are the rules :

• The contest will run during one month and will end in the 13th of September when I will choose the winners in the different categories
• All the technical analysis will have to be on BTC/USD pair
• To participate you have to post your technical analysis here and you have to add those info :
  
  • A graph with the different overlays of your technical analysis
  • The Target in price that you forecast and an approximation of time of when it will occur
  • A little description of your TA than explain your target in price.
• Each member may only participate once and cannot modify their prediction (I will do screenshot or quote of the prediction of each participant)
• Any kind of technical analysis is allowed (patterns, indicators,….)
• The contest is open to every rank in forum
• To perform your Technical Analysis you can use any time frame superior or equal to 1H.
• The price prediction must be reached before the end of the contest.
• The price data used for TA should be from one of this exchange (high volume exchanges to limit exotic price movements) : Coinbase, Bitstamp, Bitfinex

Different rewards will be in place :

• The most accurate TA (in term of price and time) will be awarded with 5 merits
• The TA using the most effectively Patterns Overlays (Triangles, flags, Head and shoulders, cup and handle, Pennants, Wedge, candle patterns, fractals, ….) will be rewarded with 2 merits
• The TA using the most effectively Indicators (MACD, EMA, RSI, ADX, OBV,…) will be rewarded with 2 merits
• The TA using the most effectively levels (FIB, Support/resistance) will be rewarded with 2 merits
• The TA which is the most beautiful piece of art (Yes I know that some of you are real artist like this example and this one) will be rewarded with 2 merits

If I manage to secure more merits during the time of the contest, I will reward the different winners with more merits and add some categories

Good luck everyone!

Sum Up of the different contribution :

Atrocityx on the 15th of August : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4885085.msg44145700#msg44145700
Micgoossens on the 17th of August : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4885085.msg44230187#msg44230187
HairyMaclairy on the 28th of August : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4885085.msg44823171#msg44823171
VictoryCoin on the 06th of September : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4885085.msg45257469#msg45257469

[TomCrypto]

Thanks to Pursuer, the rewards on the contest were increased (1 more merit for the most accurate TA and 1 merit for the TA using most effectively FIB  and support/Resistance)

[buwaytress]

I'm a sucker for creative and intelligent TAs, so I might merit entries/submissions that I also like, and have added 1 more to OP to distribute (in the form of sMerit I mean). Personally, I don't think a one-time accuracy is any pointer of expertise, since someone could get really lucky in the timeframe. Consistency would be a better indicator, but since I believe even that is largely down to luck (again, depending on timeframe) I suppose there's no harm in awarding the "luckiest" analyst.

Don't forget to mention data source. Just in case someone prefers to plug into an exotic dataset

[TomCrypto]

Thanks Buwaytress for adding some sMerit to the rewards pool (I will add one more merit to the main reward) and for your comments on datasource. I will add one rule on this matter.

And indeed it's not easy to rewards Luck over expertise on a one shot call. But for the first contest I will try like this.

[gentlemand]

I think TA is a load of poo myself, but if it keeps young people off the streets at night then I'm all for it. Perhaps someone will post something here that turns me into a believer. I'm not holding my breath.

[tokeweed]

^  TA used the right way with the right indicators for the right trading style could help make your trades less spewy.  That and good bankroll management would at least make you lose less than you would have if you weren't using some TA. 

But TA is not a crystal ball.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Not a fan of TA myself. Bitcoin doesn’t behave like regular, old fashioned stocks & trades which is primarily what TA was successful (to some extent) when paired with.

Bitcoin is still relatively, in its infancy. It’s a bit of a wild beast that nobody can accurately control or predict its behaviour.

My personal strategy is to HODL which is what I’ve been doing since May 2014 & buying at regular intervals. It hasn’t failed me so far. What I invested has, even at the current price turned into obscene profits that I never thought I’d see (obviously I haven’t sold my stash - I’m on about its USD value).

Any way the point of my ramblings is that you’re probably going to mess up at least as often as you succeed tryibg to play the market with bitcoin. You just can not predict short to medium term price movements, especially dangerous if you are using leverage.

Stand back & look at a graph of bitcoin’s price movement since the 1st block was mined. The overall sentiment is upwards price movement.

Trust me, just HODL for another few years & you will become wealthy. Fuck trying to trade based on TA, it’s a fucking fools game.

[Harlot]

Surprised that a lot of people here believe that traditional TA don't apply to cryptocurrencies, but a lot of traders here are still using TA for their buy and sell decisions. For me Technical Analysis is more of a study of Human Behaviour because you can literally translate the price movement of what the majority of people are doing with the cyrptocurrency as it reflects with their respective chart. Even if it is not 100% accurate I still use it to somehow minimize the risk when it comes to my decisions in the market.

[gentlemand]

Surprised that a lot of people here believe that traditional TA don't apply to cryptocurrencies, but a lot of traders here are still using TA for their buy and sell decisions. For me Technical Analysis is more of a study of Human Behaviour because you can literally translate the price movement of what the majority of people are doing with the cyrptocurrency as it reflects with their respective chart. Even if it is not 100% accurate I still use it to somehow minimize the risk when it comes to my decisions in the market.

I believe in human nature which means FOMO, bubbles, ruin and bottomless levels of stupidity. I definitely believe in bubble cycles as humans are prone to them anyway and crypto's lack of supply and liquidity is tailor made for it.

Because of that and beyond that I don't think minute by minute or day by day TA is worth shit in a market this pathetic and twitchy. All someone has to do is roll out 'Korea ban' for the 1256th time to get a nice fall.

[El duderino_]

curious where all the TA guys are @the moment
don't look @ me i do not know anything of TA also only a hodler myself and sometimes contest creater 
but hope to see some guys going crazy down here

[bobo012]

curious where all the TA guys are @the moment
don't look @ me i do not know anything of TA also only a hodler myself and sometimes contest creater 
but hope to see some guys going crazy down here

They are rolling the dice at the moment. Betting on that 6000 line. TA in crypto doesnt make sense a lot to me. It is only a self fulfilling prophecy actually. I focus on fundamentals and bitcoins are rock solid in the long term.

[El duderino_]

curious where all the TA guys are @the moment
don't look @ me i do not know anything of TA also only a hodler myself and sometimes contest creater 
but hope to see some guys going crazy down here

They are rolling the dice at the moment. Betting on that 6000 line. TA in crypto doesnt make sense a lot to me. It is only a self fulfilling prophecy actually. I focus on fundamentals and bitcoins are rock solid in the long term.

yeah
also to many diffrent TA and always a hero of the moment getting it right , AND can't get it more wrong on his fabolous next prediction
BUT like to read there thinkings good amusement after all

[adaseb]

This is actually a pretty good idea. You got a merit.

Being a Bitcoin forum, we actually are lacking any major technical analysis for BTCUSD.

We got a discussion and all but there aren't much charts posted and analysis like you would find in the bitcoinmarkets reddit.

I am looking forward for this thread.

[Pursuer]

interesting how everyone is now agreeing with me that TA doesn't work for bitcoin! but when I have been arguing that $6k is the bottom and won't break I was shown some TA that proved it will break and go lower!

in any case I am still disappointed. 2 days ago when I saw this topic I though this can be the incentive to bring back some actual analysis to this board and reduce the "guess the price after x days" topics which are dominant here. but guess the incentive was not enough

[buwaytress]

Right then, so the only guys who came in here are those who don't believe in TA, but take a lot of joy (?) in reading them anyway - and damn, I know all of you, too

Don't give up hope yet, though, maybe some serious charting work is taking place right now in the basement. I love these dice rolls, beautiful sextuple bottoms or Double DD charts must be showing up now. We're obviously bored and there's still more than four months left to this crypto winter wonderyear, so get cracking, you profit-touting analysts!

[cellard]

^  TA used the right way with the right indicators for the right trading style could help make your trades less spewy.  That and good bankroll management would at least make you lose less than you would have if you weren't using some TA. 

But TA is not a crystal ball.

I don't believe it does a thing for day trading to be honest. I've never seen anyone doing daily trades getting consistent yearly earnings. Simply it's too much noise.

A much different story is looking at the big picture with some basic technical analysis. I've never enjoyed the fancy indicators. My favorite are channels, so that's drawing support and resistance lines and go from there. From time to time I would use a fib indicator to look at the crashes and potential pumps. Mean lines (the horizontal ones) to also test peaks, MACD for volme.. not much else. I've never been able to use boolinger bands and other stuff.

Also anything less than an daily chart is nonsense to me specially in bitcoin, like I said before, too much noise.

[TomCrypto]

Thank you to all the contributors to the rewards pool, I have added one more merit to each type of TA tool based analysis.

And it's good to read your feelings about TA. This post is about a contest on TA but it's nice to discuss about its usefullness.
In my opinion, Technical Analysis is just a part concerning price forecasting in crypto (and forex/stock/future...)

In addition to TA, in order to try to do more accurate price forecast you have to take into account market sentiment (how the crypto enthusiasts will react to the market will depend on their confidence into the market, on the news on mainstream media, crypto media, twitter, influencer.... Even if some part of TA can predict the human mind reaction to cycle by using wyckoff it's not enough) as well as fundamental analysis (how solid is a crypto project, does the team is capable on delivering, marketing, finance, token economy, ...) .

Those three tools must be combined to allow better understanding of what is driving the price.

But as always, those three tools are not perfect, and you are not away of one unexpected move from several whales or some price manipulation. "Shit Happens"  

Maybe those who are in favor of TA can show here to those who are not in favor that TA could be and interesting tool (not a perfect tool that is always right but a useful one) because we are here to see some Charts!!! With Lines, Indicators and all  

[atrocityx]

I'll take a stab at it

A graph with the different overlays of your technical analysis:
The Target in price that you forecast and an approximation of time of when it will occur: 7779
A little description of your TA than explain your target in price: Bart Candle Manipulation, hunting for stop losses, using TA concepts against the people, slow creep upwards with ETF anticipation growing

[TomCrypto]

I'll take a stab at it

A graph with the different overlays of your technical analysis:
The Target in price that you forecast and an approximation of time of when it will occur: 7779
A little description of your TA than explain your target in price: Bart Candle Manipulation, hunting for stop losses, using TA concepts against the people, slow creep upwards with ETF anticipation growing

Thank you Atrocityx to be the first participant in this contest!!
I wish you good luck with the interesting analysis you proposed to us!

[Obiwankenodium]

Nice topic, will definately follow this for educational purposes. Maybe later on i will try and add a graph o myself too, i am not confident enough in my line drawing skills to share this at the moment.