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DeathAndTaxes
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Gerald Davis


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October 21, 2011, 09:43:21 PM
 #101

There you go, while not understanding what I am saying you give another possible example of what I am talking about since if much of the human resource is directed at bio-engineering there will be less thrown at pure computing horse power break through, while computational power will be likely needed for certain future studies such as in bio-engineering if the focus of humanity drifts far enough away, Moore's law becomes broken.

Hardly.

1) the entire human race in aggregate is capable of researching more than one thing at a time.  As a % of global GDP the amount of R&D spent on faster chips is a rounding error.  We managed to get a million fold increase in computation power per unit of cost and it didn't require some huge fraction of global research.  

2) The only reason we are even begining to unlock the secrets of bio-engineering is because of massively parallel super computers.  With computers a billion times faster we are MORE likely not less likely to make meaningful breakthroughs.  If anything a stagnation in usable computing power means a stagnation in global research.  Not just in bio-engineering but in dozens of other sciences.

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But I think Energy will likely be the next big revolution/Age to happen because energy is the crucial resource necessary to feed and operate an overpopulated world, and help take humanity beyond the borders of our skies.  We'll likely see wind, hydro and solar energy sources nearing 100% efficiency, smarter and safer harnessing of nuclear energy (fission and maybe fussion), space based energy farms, smaller and stronger battery systems, super conductor break throughs, reemergence of safe wireless energy transfer, new propulsion systems very much unlike what we see in the various vehicles we have today, the harnessing of gravitational energy who knows, the mind of humans knows no limits.

All of which will require more and more and more computing power for cheaper and cheaper and cheaper.


Then again the Fermi Paradox indicates that on a long enough timeline it may not matter (however that is just to depressing so I just choose to discount it)  
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BitterTea
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October 21, 2011, 09:43:54 PM
 #102

Really? You think at some point we're just going to say "naaaah, computers are fast enough, let's not bother making them better"?

lol

Nope, no one will say it, it will just slow down for the very reasons I have already described....

now c'mon you're just starting to troll now.

Are you talking about your flawed idea of how humans research and develop (faster computers, better models will allow us to develop those other fields better and faster), or your flawed understanding of paradigms of accelerating change (when 2d transistors can no longer be shrunk, we'll be on to the next paradigm)?
DeathAndTaxes
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Gerald Davis


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October 21, 2011, 09:52:56 PM
 #103

If Moore's law is broken it will because of an inability to sustain it not because of a lack of desire.
There are so many things that we could do better if only computers were another million times faster.

I don't think you will find any researcher in any field using parallel computing that would say "yup we would be able to do X faster in the slowed down computer growth and focused on X".

It is because of massive computational growth that we are able to advance X (yes I used a variable because it applies almost universally to any research).  Every potential problem you named if solved FASTER not SLOWER with a massive increase in global computing power.

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Gerald Davis


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October 21, 2011, 10:02:13 PM
 #104

If Moore's law is broken it will because of an inability to sustain it not because of a lack of desire.
There are so many things that we could do better if only computers were another million times faster.

ok one last post since I'm an addict... THIS was what I was trying to argue, alongside where that in-sustainability will come from... desire was nowhere in my argument, you implied it.

I didn't imply anything you said human race will turn away from increasing computing performance to persue other things.

I also conditioned that Moore's law wouldn't be broken in the near term.  Eventually we won't be able to sustain it but I think we got another two decades at least.   There is sufficient demand that the prize for faster and cheaper computing power means it will get sufficient resources to solve problems that might derail it.  

Beyond two decades is harder to know because it will require a complete shift from silicon chips to something else.  Still taking this in a complete circle back to the original tangent computing power will continue to grow exponentially over next two decades.  Any economic model that considers otherwise won't survive the short term to reach any long term where computing power growth slows down.
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October 21, 2011, 10:10:52 PM
 #105

Beyond two decades is harder to know because it will require a complete shift from silicon chips to something else.  Still taking this in a complete circle back to the original tangent computing power will continue to grow exponentially over next two decades.  Any economic model that considers otherwise won't survive the short term to reach any long term where computing power growth slows down.

I've been following death and vipers discussion. While I think ya'll essentially agree with the curve Moores Law will take, I also can't wrap my head around how betting against Moores Law in the short-term with SCs inflation algorithm makes any sense.

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October 21, 2011, 10:14:46 PM
 #106

Actually the interesting (and obvious) issue with Moores law is that of course with a single technology there will eventually be a convergence to some physical limit.
However, the solution to that problem is a change in direction or a change in technology.
CPU's already do have a processing speed limit.
That limit is quite simply, the speed of light.
At 4GHz a wave can only travel ~75mm each cycle thus the paths within a CPU have an upper bound on them that is already close to being necessary to be taken into consideration.
The solution that GPU mining already shows is multiple cores.
The next batch of CPU's from ATI are already out with 8 CPU cores.
The top 69xx ATI GPU's have roughly 1000 cores in them.
That's the current solution to the issue.
Who knows what the next one will be.

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BitterTea
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October 21, 2011, 11:12:55 PM
 #107

Who knows what the next one will be.

I'm thinking 3D chip features.
DeathAndTaxes
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Gerald Davis


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October 22, 2011, 02:06:09 PM
 #108

That limit is quite simply, the speed of light.
At 4GHz a wave can only travel ~75mm each cycle thus the paths within a CPU have an upper bound on them that is already close to being necessary to be taken into consideration.

Also IIRC the propagation speed of electricity in microprocessors is slower than speed of light so that size limit is actually smaller.  Still thanks for reminding me of the propagation limit.  Even if you could take a chip to 6GHz, 8GHz, or 10GHz it would have to be an incredibly small chip to get speeds that high.

Which is why chips likely will stay in the 3GHz to 4GHz range for the next couple generations and use architectural improvements, increase high speed cache, and more cores to COST EFFECTIVELY raise computational power.  Bulldozer has 8/4 cores (8 integer cores and 4 shared floating point cores).  The next gen Bulldozer planned for 2013 will have 12/6 cores. 

People sometimes forget Moore's law is about doubling transistor count AT THE LOWEST COST.  Sure you could make a chip that is 4000 cores running at 6GHz and is the size of a pizza box however that would have nothing to do with Moore's law since the yield would be incredibly bad and the cost would be astronomical.
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October 22, 2011, 03:36:12 PM
 #109

There are so many things that we could do better if only computers were another million times faster.

Actually, Im not so sure. For the past decade I have been waiting for that "killer app" to make use of our computing resources, but it isnt happening. 10 years ago we heard all those promises of voice recognition, AI and what not. Ill see if I can find a funny slide I saw from intel making 10 year predictions, I found it laughable at the time, I think its hilarious now. In reality those problems have proven to be software, not hardware problems, and we havent progressed much since 2000. Basically our PCs are still doing the exact same things they were doing 10 years ago, and a need for faster processing for the most part just isnt there. For the bulk of daily tasks, our current hardware, or even old hardware, is more than fast enough, given efficient software.

Its therefore no surprise to see the current trends are away from highend PCs, towards slower but more mobile, more easy to use and usually, more affordable devices. First the netbook rage, now smartphones, tablets, and upcoming smartbooks. For those tasks these machines are too slow to handle, there is always the cloud. Even gaming is moving to the cloud, look up OnLive or Otoy.

Im willing to bet in 10 years, the majority of us will use computing devices that are barely faster than our current desktops. They might even be slower. They will no doubt be more useful, have better software and connectivity, they will be more portable and tap in to performance remotely when needed. But significantly better raw performance? I doubt it.

Anyway, thats not to say I declare Moore's Law dead yet. It will be used however primarily to obtain better energy efficiency. The same chips that power your iphone  or android phone will end up in huge numbers in datacenters, and those datacenters will do ever more of our number crunching. PCs will become like Unix workstations: rare (and expensive) dinosaurs.

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October 22, 2011, 05:17:17 PM
 #110



Be careful BTC-E is full of SolidCoin trolls such as Ten98 and few others.
For your safety avoid them.

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TiagoTiago
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October 22, 2011, 08:22:33 PM
 #111

The speed of light might not be the ultimate limit, they still haven't figured out exactly if that neutrino really moved under the known laws or if somthing unexpected took place.

(I dont always get new reply notifications, pls send a pm when you think it has happened)

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October 22, 2011, 08:44:56 PM
 #112

The speed of light might not be the ultimate limit, they still haven't figured out exactly if that neutrino really moved under the known laws or if somthing unexpected took place.

They didn't account for the relative motion of the satellite.

http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/27260/?ref=rss
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October 22, 2011, 09:27:46 PM
 #113

The speed of light might not be the ultimate limit, they still haven't figured out exactly if that neutrino really moved under the known laws or if somthing unexpected took place.

They didn't account for the relative motion of the satellite.

http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/27260/?ref=rss
Awn, that's disappointing...

I guess i was getting outdated info...

(I dont always get new reply notifications, pls send a pm when you think it has happened)

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October 22, 2011, 10:58:34 PM
 #114

The speed of light might not be the ultimate limit, they still haven't figured out exactly if that neutrino really moved under the known laws or if somthing unexpected took place.

They didn't account for the relative motion of the satellite.

http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/27260/?ref=rss
okay more OT since the original topic is boring anyway:
That report is HIGHLY dubious. To point out just one thing, AFAIK the opera team did not use GPS satellites for timing as claimed by the author; they used atomic clocks on the ground, and these atomic clocks where synchronized by moving a third atomic clock from one location to the other and back. The question of relativistic effects has been raised on the first press conference, and the researchers were adamant ALL effects had been taken in to account. Considering this was a 3 year experiment with highly unusual results, to assume the entire team forgot something as basic as.. relativity, is just not likely. BTW, it also appears (if the internet is to believed) the author is a crackpot. I cant vouch for that, but writing the report alone and working for a "department of artificial intelligence", I wouldnt take this as fact until its confirmed.

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