Is There Any Hope Left?

[BurntSnow]

I'm going to make this short, because I'm more interested in reading your opinions rather than sharing mine. I'm sure most of you have invested in Bitcoins- and I consider even $50 an investment (though a small one). You could have invested when 10,000 Bitcoins were worth $25, or when a Bitcoin was worth about a buck. But do you regret not cashing in your investment earlier? Even I didn't expect the value of a Bitcoin to plummet this low, and despite getting rid of all my rigs and finally uninstalling both the RPC and Diablo miners from my main computer I still check MtGox each day in hopes that the economy will get much better. Then again, I'm a kid, so why should my opinion be taken seriously? The point that I'm trying to get at is, Bitcoins have been drastically falling in value ever since the CosbyCoin incident. At this point, do you intend to sell your investment and make what tiny profit (if any) you can get, or continue "believing" in Bitcoin?
As long as Silk Road is up, I'm sure Bitcoins will still be around regardless of their value. But I can just expect that one day I'll come back here and the whole community will be dead (metaphorically, of course).

One more thing, can someone explain to me how this ISN'T a ponzi scheme? I could have become a millionaire by selling Bitcoins right now if I had known about them from the start.

And finally, how do you think the BTC economy will influence other cryptocurrencies? Or as I call them, knock-offs.

[adamstgBit]

there is a reason why bitcoin was created

i believe this reason still stands

Yes, there is hope. there is always hope

[Knighty]

I'll keep the computer running until it no longer pays the electricity it costs to run it, and I have a very cheap electric rate, so no worries there.

I've found other uses for BTC apart from SR, and it will continue to have use to me for the future though.

[finway]

Bright future.

[Brunic]

I'm going to make this short, because I'm more interested in reading your opinions rather than sharing mine. I'm sure most of you have invested in Bitcoins- and I consider even $50 an investment (though a small one). You could have invested when 10,000 Bitcoins were worth $25, or when a Bitcoin was worth about a buck. But do you regret not cashing in your investment earlier? Even I didn't expect the value of a Bitcoin to plummet this low, and despite getting rid of all my rigs and finally uninstalling both the RPC and Diablo miners from my main computer I still check MtGox each day in hopes that the economy will get much better. Then again, I'm a kid, so why should my opinion be taken seriously? The point that I'm trying to get at is, Bitcoins have been drastically falling in value ever since the CosbyCoin incident. At this point, do you intend to sell your investment and make what tiny profit (if any) you can get, or continue "believing" in Bitcoin?

Honestly, I believe that this bubble-n-crash was a great thing for Bitcoins. The bubble brought in a lot of new blood (like me and some friends) in that community. The crash was necessary to clean the place of all the scammers and get-rich-quick-losers who don't bring a lot of value with them. Right now, a lot of projects are being created and Bitcoin is growing slowly, but clearly.

Yeah, if you just look at the price, you're going to miss the important details. Go check how many new users this forum gets. Check the volume of Bitcoins traded every day. Yeah, the price is low, but don't forget that for every person who sells, there's another one who buy Bitcoins and want its investment to grow.

I believe right now is the best time to invest into Bitcoins projects. Just 2 days ago, we bought a total of 4 GHash/s of new Radeon for our farm. This weekend, we're going to go from 8 GHash/s to 12 GHash/s. And yes, we pay our electricity and yes, we're making money. I really don't understand that now that the Bitcoin is accessible to more people because of its low price, all we see is "doom and gloom". With that difficulty going down like crazy, and the price going the same way, it's a wonderful opportunity to invest.

As long as Silk Road is up, I'm sure Bitcoins will still be around regardless of their value. But I can just expect that one day I'll come back here and the whole community will be dead (metaphorically, of course).

One more thing, can someone explain to me how this ISN'T a ponzi scheme? I could have become a millionaire by selling Bitcoins right now if I had known about them from the start.

It is not a ponzi scheme. Why? Because it is not.
Also, the sky is not brown. Why? Because it is not.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ponzi_scheme

And don't take it personnally, but I believe it is impossible for you to become a millionaire with your current attitude. My guess is that, if you knew about Bitcoins from the start, you would have the same reaction as right now. One year ago, it was impossible to predict the bubble who occured in June. And right now, it's impossible to predict the next bubble who will occur in December 2012.

How do I know there's going to be another bubble in December 2012? The world is supposed to end next year, and people will invest into Bitcoin because of that. I have a chart with red lines made with Paint somewhere on my computer that proves it!

Seriously, I don't know, I'm like those early adopters who had no idea what Bitcoin could become in the future. I'm happy for them, because right now, I'm making money because of their efforts. I hope some other people will be able to make money later because of my efforts.

And finally, how do you think the BTC economy will influence other cryptocurrencies? Or as I call them, knock-offs.

Well, some interesting ideas could emerge from it (thinking about Namecoin right now). But overall, we're going to see a lot of shit(like SolidCoin for example) where all the guy try to do is to rip-off Bitcoins, correct "problems" (in reality, these are not really problems, they are more like unique characteristics that are perceive like problems because people are afraid of them) and try to do the exact same thing Bitcoins does, but with a new paint job on it.

Overall, I'm just a random Internet guy, who's really sick of all that "fail" mentality around here. Why everybody is so obsessed with failure, whining or conspiracy? Don't you guys want to win sometimes? Sure there's a conspiracy/ponzi scheme/whatever out there. Somebody called God planted a death bomb in your ass and, evil as he is, he didn't told you when it's going to blow up. But hey! Lucky as we are, we can achieve things with the time we have!

BurntSnow, don't take anything in my post personnally. It's just that your post is similar to a dozen of "doom" post everywhere on this forum, and I just wanted to rant about it.

[johnyj]

One more thing, can someone explain to me how this ISN'T a ponzi scheme? I could have become a millionaire by selling Bitcoins right now if I had known about them from the start.

And finally, how do you think the BTC economy will influence other cryptocurrencies? Or as I call them, knock-offs.

Illusions of fortune, the only fortune you had are those you have spent 

[norulezapply]

@Brunic - I have no idea why you are buying more rigs now when it's surely far cheaper and faster to buy the coins outright.

You must be mental.

[Revalin]

I'm sure most of you have invested in Bitcoins ( ... ) But do you regret not cashing in your investment earlier?  ( ... ) But I can just expect that one day I'll come back here and the whole community will be dead (metaphorically, of course).

Here's something I just said in another thread:

There are several different groups here:

Miners: Hash power lags price, so when the price is rising, miners make money; when it's falling, they're unprofitable.  Right now mining is useful to people who want to acquire coins without exchanges, or who just want to support the network.  Bitcoin is dead to for-profit miners, and will stay dead unless the price surges again, in which case it'll be profitable briefly.

Speculative investors:  A few got in early and aren't about to complain.  Most bought in above $10, and they're in the middle of a bloodbath.  The ones who say it's dead lost it all; the ones who say it's alive are trying to catch a falling knife.  Most will grab too early and get a handful of blade, but a few will get lucky and grab the handle.

Trolls:  Bitcoin was stillborn, is dead, was always dead, will always be dead, and anything it ever does is because it's a fucking zombie and we need to shoot it in the head.

Cryptoconsumers (My camp): We want to buy and sell things and don't care much about the exchange rate.  For us, Bitcoin is still in its infancy: there are still far too few places accepting it, and volatility is a real drag on acceptance; in my opinion a more stable altchain may eventually win for this reason.  But it (Bitcoin proper, and cryptocurrency generally) is still very much alive, and I have no reason to run away.

Bitcoins have been drastically falling in value ever since the CosbyCoin incident.

It's been falling since the bubble peaked.  CosbyCoin was inconsequential.  I drew this a month ago:



I've switched to log charts because linear charting is going to fail us as the prices fall into the 1-2 range.  Here's one I did a couple days ago:



Cosbycoin is that 220k volume spike in September.  It moved the price briefly but it didn't have any lasting effect.

This trend has been going a long time, and I consider it to be due to bad problems in Bitcoin's fundamentals: specifically, that until there's more commerce happening in coins, it's terribly overvalued.  Yes, even now.  More about that here:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=42514.msg579016#msg579016

At this point, do you intend to sell your investment and make what tiny profit (if any) you can get, or continue "believing" in Bitcoin?

I believe in fundamentals, not hopes and dreams.  I haven't held any significant number of coins in a long time.

One more thing, can someone explain to me how this ISN'T a ponzi scheme? I could have become a millionaire by selling Bitcoins right now if I had known about them from the start.

It's not a ponzi at all (A single person collecting investments and faking returns).  It's much closer to a pyramid scheme (a bunch of people buying in and then desperately seeking new suckers so they can cash out).  It's not quite the same since you're selling into a liquid market instead of expecting the people under you to keep paying back up the chain, but the general behavior is pretty similar: tons of people who just know they're going to get rich off this thing if they can just keep it growing, and who're totally convinced it's not a pyramid scheme because they're selling something that has some value (most pyramid schemes have some variant of this).

And finally, how do you think the BTC economy will influence other cryptocurrencies? Or as I call them, knock-offs.

I advocate creating an altcoin that deliberately sabotages the speculation pyramid by creating market-indexed inflation.  My variant is based on a currency basket; Red wants to derive it from the cost of electricity; I'm sure there are others out there.  That means that it won't be very good for long-term investment since there is plenty of opportunity to depreciate with only limited appreciation potential.  However, that WILL prevent speculative bubble/bust cycles, and I think a little inflation is a fair price to pay to gain stability.  My goal is to have a transactional currency, not a speculative investment vehicle.

[melvster]

I'm going to make this short, because I'm more interested in reading your opinions rather than sharing mine. I'm sure most of you have invested in Bitcoins- and I consider even $50 an investment (though a small one). You could have invested when 10,000 Bitcoins were worth $25, or when a Bitcoin was worth about a buck. But do you regret not cashing in your investment earlier? Even I didn't expect the value of a Bitcoin to plummet this low, and despite getting rid of all my rigs and finally uninstalling both the RPC and Diablo miners from my main computer I still check MtGox each day in hopes that the economy will get much better. Then again, I'm a kid, so why should my opinion be taken seriously? The point that I'm trying to get at is, Bitcoins have been drastically falling in value ever since the CosbyCoin incident. At this point, do you intend to sell your investment and make what tiny profit (if any) you can get, or continue "believing" in Bitcoin?
As long as Silk Road is up, I'm sure Bitcoins will still be around regardless of their value. But I can just expect that one day I'll come back here and the whole community will be dead (metaphorically, of course).

One more thing, can someone explain to me how this ISN'T a ponzi scheme? I could have become a millionaire by selling Bitcoins right now if I had known about them from the start.

And finally, how do you think the BTC economy will influence other cryptocurrencies? Or as I call them, knock-offs.

You could have been a millionaire by investing in apple in the 80s, doesnt make apple a ponzi scheme.  Some things accrue value.  Bitcoin accrues values as it becomes more trusted, and more widely used.

[Revalin]

+1, it's a lot like a low value stock.

I compare it more to the pink sheets (penny stocks, which I also consider to be pyramids).  The behavior is similar:  with a tiny market cap, just a few guys pumping it (on forums, "BUY XXX" spams, giddy youtube videos, or whatever) can start a bubble, the new guys will take over excitedly promoting it, and it'll self-sustain long enough for the first ones in to cash out.

But those only get one shot, then they're dead.  Bitcoin may have a future.  If it can create some real value by growing a real economy, it may get somewhere.  Don't listen to the excited speculative investors who're telling you this will happen... They're speculating.  Pay attention to signs of real commerce - that's the only thing that will drive growth in the long run.

[RodeoX]

Can I get back to you when Bitcoin is ready for release? Remember we are not even halfway to a version 1.  Once soccer Moms have a version they can choose to use, we will have an idea about it's broader adoption.

[Dan The Man]

Finally got out of Newbville, so I will repost this:

THE MONEY IS NOT DISAPPEARING

A lot of people are talking about how the falling bitcoin prices is making money evaporate, as though Bitcoin is somehow eating up life savings. The only thing that is evaporating is electricity and overheated GPUs, everything else is just changing hands. If you draw an imaginary boundary around all of the people playing the bitcoin exchange game and consider all of the real dollars that they have put into it, there is no sinkhole where dollars are disappearing into. It's just they have redistributed there wealth between the players. It's like playing poker at your buddies house, you came to the table, made a bet, and someone lost and someone won. The people who bought at $30 lost, and the people who sold at $30 won.

Similarly, there was no money tree when the price was ramping up. If you made money, that was late adopters putting cash into your hands. A purely speculative trading environment (Bitcoin basically) is just another type of poker. You are gambling on the actions of other individuals who in turn are gambling on the actions of you and everyone else.

I think that Bitcoin has value in that it can replace some of the action in penny stocks, commodities, and currency trading. All of these trading markets are tied down to some real world actions and have associated costs as well. Bitcoin has almost no costs and is only dependent on the people that use it. There is no shell company to declare bankruptcy, or mineral stores that have upkeep costs, or government fixing currency values. Speculating on Bitcoin ensures that the money isn't getting funnelled to anyone playing a different game than you are. Basically you can't get an edge by "cheating", you can only do your best to persuade others. It's about as fair of a gambling system as you will find anywhere.

[Revalin]

A lot of people are talking about how the falling bitcoin prices is making money evaporate, as though Bitcoin is somehow eating up life savings.

Unfortunately for a few overly-optimistic fools, it DID eat up their life savings, and they went into debt buying even more coins.

Like you say, that money wasn't destroyed, it just went to someone else... But I object to shoveling money from one person to another just because one bought in early and won the gamble against the guy who bought in late, when no one involved did anything to create or destroy any real value.  Exploiting people's gullibility is not a moral act.

[Dan The Man]

Bitcoin isn't about creating value, it's about moving value. Whether you're buying or selling dollars or bicycles with B, it's all the same thing. You're playing the game, shuffling around value.

[Revalin]

I agree, but it should be about choosing to move value, not having it moved because the market shifted around me in ways I didn't expect.

[Dan The Man]

I agree, but it should be about choosing to move value, not having it moved because the market shifted around me in ways I didn't expect.

Movement is relative. Flip around the typical Bitcoin exchange rate and suddenly it looks like there's a dollar bubble going on. USD crashed in June and has been skyrocketing ever since. Time to buy buy buy. But nobody ever looks at it that way. Same thing with dollars. Holding cash in your pocket is an investment in that cash, whether you realize that or not. If you are playing both sides of the Bitcoin/Dollar trade, then you have relative movement. Your feet are in two different boats and the only way to stabilize is to step out of one and into the other. I suggest the one that lets you buy groceries if you do that, but maybe you just need to practice balancing a bit longer.

[Brunic]

@Brunic - I have no idea why you are buying more rigs now when it's surely far cheaper and faster to buy the coins outright.

You must be mental.

Yeah, I'm mental because I make profits.  

Dude, I'm making money of mining Bitcoins and selling them. Why should I stop? With these new rigs, I'll just make more money.

[Revalin]

Movement is relative. Flip around the typical Bitcoin exchange rate and suddenly it looks like there's a dollar bubble going on. USD crashed in June and has been skyrocketing ever since. Time to buy buy buy. But nobody ever looks at it that way.

I do!  A couple weeks ago I commented that I had invested all my BTC into USD, and I've been earning a 1500% ROR ever since! 

But that's not really true.  It's hard to pin a specific value (Not price!  I mean value: how much it's actually worth when I buy goods) on a unit of currency, but BTC has lost 90% in 4 months, while USD hasn't lost more than 10% value even by pessimistic metrics.

[OgNasty]

Bitcoin is dead to for-profit miners, and will stay dead unless the price surges again, in which case it'll be profitable briefly.

False.  My mining operation is still profitable and at the current difficulty, would remain profitable down to around $1/BTC.  Once difficulty readjusts next, my profitability level will be around $0.85/BTC.  Far from dead.

[mjcmurfy]

Yeah, I'm mental because I make profits.  

Dude, I'm making money of mining Bitcoins and selling them. Why should I stop? With these new rigs, I'll just make more money.

Troll, or a complete moron? Cast your votes.