Bitcoin price forecasting (Yale University research)

[Frankwood]

Hi everyone!

Professors at Yale University, recently contributed to the study of the cryptocurrency market. Their joint research is entitled as “Risks and Returns of Cryptocurrency”. This work can help in forecasting the movement of coins.

https://medium.com/@alphapark/risks-and-returns-of-cryptocurrency-6890eddabc5a

Very interesting article and research.

How quickly does the exchange rate react to the people's mood? How do you think?

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[stompix]

A pretty lame article, a bunch of words saying nothing, just a copy paste from the conclusion in the original..

You could have linked directly to it:
https://economics.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/Faculty/Tsyvinski/cryptoreturns%208-7-2018.pdf

Skimming through I found this pretty interesting:

Table 4 shows the mean, standard deviation, and Sharpe ratios of the returns on different days of the
week. In contrast to the stocks, there is no pronounced Monday effect. While Bitcoin returns are somewhat lower on Sundays, the returns on Saturday is consistently lower across all three cryptocurrencies.

I always thought that Sunday is the day of the red candles, not Saturday

[YuginKadoya]

Like what they say they already just research what others got research on too, Or should we say that they have research what is really already known by the community apparently stompix statistics is more interesting from their work, Many have done that Risk and returns kind of thing from the market of cryptocurrency and it is nice to see different things that the usual things we already know, Statistic from a chart and a latest movement of things in the crypto world should be the one that needs research on and whats next in the price of bitcoin.

[LeGaulois]

Conclusion

[Harlot]

$2,300 for just a 67 page research paper made by some Ivy League professors on what they "learn" about cryptocurrency trading, I'll really flip out in this if I see that their research would be available freely online. The sad part about this course is it is just an online course, so one-on-one lectures won't be a thing. They also have said that this course might "help in forecasting", technical analysis in general can help in forecasting I wonder what will be the difference in their study that might increase our chances more.

[bobo012]

$2,300 for just a 67 page research paper made by some Ivy League professors on what they "learn" about cryptocurrency trading, I'll really flip out in this if I see that their research would be available freely online. The sad part about this course is it is just an online course, so one-on-one lectures won't be a thing. They also have said that this course might "help in forecasting", technical analysis in general can help in forecasting I wonder what will be the difference in their study that might increase our chances more.

Yea, i am not paying for a research that i can do alone. Also i bet he entered way later than me so i dont see why i should pay that much to hear what he has to say on a topic that i know really well. I guess someone will find use of it but it is expensive though.

[XinXan]

$2,300 for just a 67 page research paper made by some Ivy League professors on what they "learn" about cryptocurrency trading, I'll really flip out in this if I see that their research would be available freely online. The sad part about this course is it is just an online course, so one-on-one lectures won't be a thing. They also have said that this course might "help in forecasting", technical analysis in general can help in forecasting I wonder what will be the difference in their study that might increase our chances more.

Because lately everyone calls everything ''research'' and ''new study''. They also come up with new ways of trading that are always the same thing, we already know the ''best ways'' to trade, technical analysis has been around for quite long, mostly because making money trading is about human emotion not numbers or calculations. Everyone knows that, even hundreds of years ago people took advantage of it.

[1Referee]

Also i bet he entered way later than me so i dont see why i should pay that much to hear what he has to say on a topic that i know really well.

The problem isn't that he entered before or after you.

The main thing is that whoever it is, if someone is trying to sell you advice or knowledge, then know that it's done solely because that person sucks at trading and investing. If these people even remotely believed in their own research and information, they would have used it themselves and kept their mouth shut, because one doesn't sell valuable information gathered through time intensive research.

In the end people are free to buy whatever they want with their money, but they are far better off investing time in themselves, because self-education is key. Don't let traditional book knowledge not understanding anything about crypto tell you what's good or not. They don't know shit.

[buwaytress]

Don't fall for that marketing. Ivy League numbers carry some weight, but not in Bitcoin or crypto trading circles. These guys are probably equipped with technical knowledge, but the flaw is that every logic and rationale is grounded in traditional market theories (and those have a recognised flaw in that they're all grounded in rational models, which, the very latest economists will already tell you, just doesn't work).

You'll get more than your money's worth just learning and reading from all the free resources already shared here and elsewhere.

Think it's as simple as buying on Friday and setting an order for Saturday's dip? Try it. It won't work any better than if you set shorts on any day to trigger at 2%.

[stompix]

Yea, i am not paying for a research that i can do alone. Also i bet he entered way later than me so i dont see why i should pay that much to hear what he has to say on a topic that i know really well. I guess someone will find use of it but it is expensive though.

Then if you do know that much, why don't you create your own research start teaching people for half price?
I have a feeling it would be more profitable than doing bounty for stuff like DomRaider....

I love how some people act high and mighty and they don't have a clue what this is about

The main thing is that whoever it is, if someone is trying to sell you advice or knowledge, then know that it's done solely because that person sucks at trading and investing. If these people even remotely believed in their own research and information, they would have used it themselves and kept their mouth shut, because one doesn't sell valuable information gathered through time intensive research.

They don't sell you advice on how to get rich, what to invest in or whatever...
It's a basic course on how trading and cryptos work

Just how my wife had to take a government-sponsored course on computers and accounting, and although till then she had done her job perfectly there were lots of new things she learned she had no clue about.

And nobody is born a trader, no matter how much talent you have on anticipating the market move as long as you don't have a clue what a short or long position or how the rates work you still won't make a penny.
Most traders here are just gamblers who at the end of the week have to ask on the forum if they are in the red or not: PPP

Don't fall for that marketing. Ivy League numbers carry some weight, but not in Bitcoin or crypto trading circles. These guys are probably equipped with technical knowledge, but the flaw is that every logic and rationale is grounded in traditional market theories (and those have a recognised flaw in that they're all grounded in rational models, which, the very latest economists will already tell you, just doesn't work).

What the University did was a research on past experience...
They didn't claim it's going to work in the future

Think it's as simple as buying on Friday and setting an order for Saturday's dip? Try it. It won't work any better than if you set shorts on any day to trigger at 2%.

Now, this would be an interesting experiment...

[1Referee]

They don't sell you advice on how to get rich, what to invest in or whatever...
It's a basic course on how trading and cryptos work

That's exactly what I was referring to. Never said anything about getting rich.  

And nobody is born a trader, no matter how much talent you have on anticipating the market move as long as you don't have a clue what a short or long position or how the rates work you still won't make a penny.
Most traders here are just gamblers who at the end of the week have to ask on the forum if they are in the red or not: PPP

That's why it's important to educate yourself. My whole point basically is that you shouldn't let anyone trying to sell you advice or information, which is what they basically do, tell YOU what to do. If you can't figure out yourself how trading works, you'll suck at trading for ever, regardless of how many courses you follow. In crypto you need to absorb unbiased information that doesn't come out of a book. You learn by diving into it, which means losses at the beginning, but later on you'll get to understand this market to a better degree. See the initial losses as a tuition fee.

[stompix]

That's why it's important to educate yourself. My whole point basically is that you shouldn't let anyone trying to sell you advice or information, which is what they basically do, tell YOU what to do.

This is the word we're disagreeing on
It's not what but how.

If you can't figure out yourself how trading works, you'll suck at trading forever, regardless of how many courses you follow.

You realize that this is an invitation to f*** school, everyone should learn on their own right? 

[Slow death]

How do you think?

they charge $ 2300 for the short course, but the main question is: what will the person learn from the concrete and what are the results that they have had today that allows them to give short course... because honestly I do not see these guys who make predictions of have good results. Let me give you an example:

see this Reddit User Gets $147,000 Loan and Loses 85% on Cryptocurrency Investments

Looking back, some of the crypto like NEO lost approximately 90% of its value at the beginning of the year. Stellar also lost 75%, with Litecoin shedding off approximately 85%. In the recent past, Ethereum has also realized a decline in its price by about 80%, with Bitcoin also losing about 70% of its value after having hit a high of $20,000 towards the end of last year.

Bitcoin Destined For $28,000 In 2018 - Moas

Ronnie Moas - Not a Billionaire, But a Crypto Guru


Ronnie Moas Raises Bitcoin Target Again: $20,000 for 2018

John McAfee Doubles Down, Predicts $1 Mln BTC, Bets His D**k On It

not even these guys can get their predictions right, so I do not see the benefit of this short course

[cellard]

I wouldn't pay a single satoshi in exchange of so called "premium" courses of trading or fundamental analysis. What for? Everything you need for is already on the internet. If you can't learn it yourself then I guess it's worth ti for some, but really, if you are expecting some sort of magic insight because you paid for this or that course you are delusional. It's like all these tradings charging for private courses, like the Tone Vays one. Why would you pay for that? the only one making solid money is Tone Vays himself with that 0.1 BTC rate, most traders lose money.

I would only pay to get insider information from a solid source, which is what really gives you asymmetrical advantage vs the market.

Also visit my thread here to add all of the pessimistic predictions you can find:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4906761.msg44191375#msg44191375

[vlad230]

If it's something researched at Yale then it must be true  jk

No one can predict the price of bitcoin since everything is news driven. Every time something good or bad shows up in the news, BTC will increase or decrease. It's simple.

If you can find out the information before it makes it to the news channels then you're all set.

[Frankwood]

I got plenty of different comments for this post. I'd like to note that some users are very trustful and decided not to dig into the text itself and just comment on the comments. I would draw your attention to the fact that the post clearly stated that the LSE program for investment training in the cryptocurrency is worth $ 2,300, and not Yale research, which is available online for free. And after one participant (Harlot) of the discussion said that the research is too expensive, others have already begun to develop the topic of the high cost of the research:) This post did not have any revolutionary information, but was designed to simplify the lives of those who do not have much time to cope with the 67-page research. Poor attention to the detail, in this case, was not worth the money. But still, friends, it's better to avoid such situations, because sometimes we can miss something really important.

Tip: Be more attentive.

I also would like to note a comment about the fact that the only thing worth paying is insider info that reminded me of the good old movie Wall Street, 1987. If this info is valid, then, of course, it is worth its money, but as always, the problem is if the source is reliable. At the same time, in my opinion, there is no prejudice if you pay for processing large amounts of information that can lead to correct decisions. In addition to processing, there are various sources of information that cost money and those you do not have to pay for if you get "all services in one place" (from paid subscriptions to Bloomberg terminals, Capital IQ at $ 1.5-3.0K per month and above). However, this is all hard work, which, like everything on the market, does not provide you with a 100% guarantee. Insider info can be an absolute guarantee.  But still, only in theory.

Tip: Be careful when choosing an information asymmetry provider, Mr. Gekko

In fact, everybody (professional players, professors, ordinary people) are trying to get close to unveil the secret of the Holy Grail and to add one more factor to the algorithm for predicting the traffic on cryptomarket. The professors from Yale tried to do this, and in general, you can just keep in mind this academic approach when making decisions in developing your model for assessing the market situation. Not so long ago, Tom Lee discovered a high correlation between the dynamics of EM with bitcoin (of course, on a certain horizon). We, in turn, suggested an even greater correlation with the dynamics of the spread of the 2-year and 10-year US Treasuries, because of which the curve will be inverted on the horizon of 1.5-2 years, which will be a significant negative signal for cryptomarket as well. If you are interested here is a link to the article. But all these are separate signals in a multifactor analysis, which allows us all to come closer to understanding the behavior of the market.

And what factors do you rely on when making decisions and to what do you pay the most attention?

[zazarb]

Hi everyone!

Professors at Yale University, recently contributed to the study of the cryptocurrency market. Their joint research is entitled as “Risks and Returns of Cryptocurrency”. This work can help in forecasting the movement of coins.

https://medium.com/@alphapark/risks-and-returns-of-cryptocurrency-6890eddabc5a

Very interesting article and research.

How quickly does the exchange rate react to the people's mood? How do you think?

Absolutely nothing new was researched, seems like they just research what everybody already know before. Just nothing worth studying.

[KryptoKai]

If these professors and ivy league students can study bitcoin price movements and accurately forecast a price rise then they will all be millionaires and can retire early or use it to fund further research. Most of which is about as useful as this shite report as real traders know that it cannot be forecast and volatility is due to whales, panic sellers, and price manipulators