Media attention with the price drop

[nmat]

Today and yesterday I saw a lot of reports about the price drop. It appeared on slashdot, arstechnica, ieee, all over twitter, etc.

Could this mean that new people will be entering the market and drive prices up (specially if they think that right now is a buying opportunity)? I wasn't here around June when the media exploded with bitcoin news so I am not sure if this resembles what happened at that time...

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[dancupid]

Today and yesterday I saw a lot of reports about the price drop. It appeared on slashdot, arstechnica, ieee, all over twitter, etc.

Could this mean that new people will be entering the market and drive prices up (specially if they think that right now is a buying opportunity)? I wasn't here around June when the media exploded with bitcoin news so I am not sure if this resembles what happened at that time...

There's even a nice article in the Guardian

http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2011/oct/18/bitcoin-value-crash-cryptocurrency?newsfeed=true

You can't get more mainstream than that.

Perhaps it piqued a few people interest to look at bitcoin - I know I first became interested after the mt.gox crash. Bad news is sometimes the only way people hear about something.

[Litt]

Well.. it wasn't the first time media said bitcoin crashed.. This is something like third or fourth time since the mtgox crash. Followed by mybitcoin crash.. and so on..

Nontheless, there are plenty of negative coverage about bitcoin that are copy pasted all over the net once again. I hope it does grab some people's interest.

[proudhon]

Well.. it wasn't the first time media said bitcoin crashed.. This is something like third or fourth time since the mtgox crash. Followed by mybitcoin crash.. and so on..

Nontheless, there are plenty of negative coverage about bitcoin that are copy pasted all over the net once again. I hope it does grab some people's interest.

Right and notice how the price has continued to fall despite the media attention.  Call me crazy but I've got this hunch that the media attention we've been getting since June isn't bringing enough new people in to stop it from crashing, or, rather, continuing to crash.

[Edward50]

You guys are still too optimistic. When people read reports about how the price crashed from $30 to as low as $1 dollar, people want to run away from this, not start buying into it. Consumers are not stupid, they know about catching falling knives.

You stay away from something that has crashed like this. There is a reason it has crashed.

[sukiho]

for myself I dont care what the value of it is, its still a great idea that has to happen in one way or another, its still the most efficient way of sending money internationally, among other things, and  in the meantime its still a great market for speculating, better then ever it seems to me

[worldinacoin]

I have a feeling that for the recent drop, those that can or will run away has already run away.  There isn't much room to fall anyway

[mobodick]

You guys are still too optimistic. When people read reports about how the price crashed from $30 to as low as $1 dollar, people want to run away from this, not start buying into it. Consumers are not stupid, they know about catching falling knives.

You stay away from something that has crashed like this. There is a reason it has crashed.

You see it all wrong!
It is a clear signal that something that is now worth $2 has the potential to be worth $30.
That's a clear -Buy-, i'd say.

[BitMagic]

its still the most efficient way of sending money internationally

God, the stupidity. There is nothing efficient about losing money between the time you convert dollars into BTC and the time you get your goods and services. It is an extremely inefficient way to preserve value.

[sukiho]

its still the most efficient way of sending money internationally

God, the stupidity. There is nothing efficient about losing money between the time you convert dollars into BTC and the time you get your goods and services. It is an extremely inefficient way to preserve value.

I must be stupid because your going to have to explain the losing money part. how will you lose money in that time? after you send the money the other person has it, how can you lose on it? same as with normal money, just that the other person gets it straight away and no one pays a fee. try that with paypal or a bank check

[Brunic]

You stay away from something that has crashed like this. There is a reason it has crashed.

You know that in 1983, the video game market completely crashed? It went from 3 billions $ to 100 millions$ in 1985. It's a 97% value drop. The crash allowed an opportunistic Nintendo to enter the market and completely dominate it. Check the state of the video game market after that...

Crash is an opportunity for newcomers. The only people who lose are the ones who were in the market during the crash. All those who where not in it didn't lost a single dime. They might even find the market interesting, because of its low value, it let those newcomers to come in and try things at a low risk.

[BadBear]

You stay away from something that has crashed like this. There is a reason it has crashed.

You know that in 1983, the video game market completely crashed? It went from 3 billions $ to 100 millions$ in 1985. It's a 97% value drop. The crash allowed an opportunistic Nintendo to enter the market and completely dominate it. Check the state of the video game market after that...

Crash is an opportunity for newcomers. The only people who lose are the ones who were in the market during the crash. All those who where not in it didn't lost a single dime. They might even find the market interesting, because of its low value, it let those newcomers to come in and try things at a low risk.

Yes, from 32 dollars to 2 dollars is sure to attract lots of new blood.   

Some of you need to get a grip on reality. 

[Crypt_Current]

its still the most efficient way of sending money internationally

God, the stupidity. There is nothing efficient about losing money between the time you convert dollars into BTC and the time you get your goods and services. It is an extremely inefficient way to preserve value.

I must be stupid because your going to have to explain the losing money part. how will you lose money in that time? after you send the money the other person has it, how can you lose on it? same as with normal money, just that the other person gets it straight away and no one pays a fee. try that with paypal or a bank check

Right -- since it's more or less an instantaneous transfer, if you're basing the value on standard currency (like USD), if both parties agree upon a price, then the transfer happens, as long as the BTC is EXPEDIENTLY converted to USD or whatever other currency, no value is lost.

[sukiho]

look on the bright side, its still worth twice as much as a dollar

[FlipPro]

look on the bright side, its still worth twice as much as a dollar

Won't be so after this weekend. There are fundamental problems in the Bitcoin economic philosophy that needs to be checked.

[fcmatt]

look on the bright side, its still worth twice as much as a dollar

I doubt that will be the case for long. I decided to sell 30+ BTC just now because I am
tired of holding them and watching them lose value. Better to get something out of it now
then to see it worth 50% less in a couple of weeks.

I can always mine more since I get free power but even then it is quickly becoming not
worth it while the hardware depreciates.

[enmaku]

You stay away from something that has crashed like this. There is a reason it has crashed.

You know that in 1983, the video game market completely crashed? It went from 3 billions $ to 100 millions$ in 1985. It's a 97% value drop. The crash allowed an opportunistic Nintendo to enter the market and completely dominate it. Check the state of the video game market after that...

Crash is an opportunity for newcomers. The only people who lose are the ones who were in the market during the crash. All those who where not in it didn't lost a single dime. They might even find the market interesting, because of its low value, it let those newcomers to come in and try things at a low risk.

Yes, from 32 dollars to 2 dollars is sure to attract lots of new blood.  

Some of you need to get a grip on reality.  

And some of you need to get a grip on history...

Between 1634 and 1638, there was a massive bubble in tulip prices. The bubble popped, the market corrected and the tulip industry hasn't crashed & burned. You can still buy tulips bulbs today for a reasonable price.

Between 1719 and 1720, shares of the French Mississippi Company (a company which mostly played games buying government debt) experienced a massive bubble, which popped, the market corrected and FMC couldn't ride out the correction and so they failed. They went defunct in November of 1720.

In 1720 as the FMC was failing, the South Sea Company was created in England, similarly playing games with government debt, and actually began to intentionally inflate stock worth via a fraudulent bubble scheme - this became particularly common during the years to follow. The bubble popped, the market corrected and the investigation which followed led to the arrest of many corrupt politicians and businessmen and the seiqure of over 2 million pounds from SSC directors.

The entire U.S. stock market experienced a massive bubble between 1924 and 1929 as the massive expansion of consumer credit was used to buy stocks. The sudden increase in demand could not be sustained, however, as the demand was based on debt and when debts needed repaid, the bubble began to deflate. On Sept. 3, 1929 the Dow reached its high and on Oct. 24 (Black Thursday) the bubble popped. The market corrected (in the form of the great depression) and while a great many companies went bankrupt, many also survived much better for the trial. The economy in general recovered.

Between 1984 and 1989, Japan experienced a massive economic bubble mostly due to the combination of loose monetary policy, increase in money supply and decrease in interest rates. Massive speculation inflated the bubble to its peak in Dec. 1989 at which point the bubble popped, the market corrected and Japan experienced lower growth than any other major industrial nation for most of the 1990s. Eventually, though, they recovered and are now a major industrial nation once again.

Between 1995 and 2000, the U.S. internet sector experienced a massive bubble commonly referred to as the "dot-com bubble" fueled by massive speculation and over-confidence in the ability of internet companies to turn a profit, at its peak many companies actually had no source of income aside from venture capital and IPO profits, which is obviously unsustainable. On Mar. 10, 2000 and continued to decline until almost 2003. The market corrected, bad companies went defunct, good companies survived, and the market in general has recovered. The internet is still a powerhouse and still home to businesses of massive scale and profitability.

The take-home from this is twofold:

1. All bubbles pop. The very definition of a bubble requires "unsustainable growth" which necessitates a "market correction" often to below reasonable value for the commodity in question.
2. Some bubbles destroy their subject, others can be survived. The dividing line between those commodities that live and those that die seems to be the merits of the commodity itself. Tulip bulbs were a viable product before the bubble, so they survived to be a viable product after. FMC and SSC were both startups playing financial games with government debt, both perished when their bubbles burst. SSC and its fellow 1720s bubble companies were largely scams and so obviously died when the bubble burst. The entire U.S. and Japanese stock markets represent a massive array of companies, many of which weren't viable and many of which were - the bubble's bursting took most of the non-viable companies down with it while preserving the good (though some bad survived and some good perished, to be sure). The Internet is a tremendous force, and internet business has too many benefits to simply die in a bubble.

In all of these cases things with good fundamentals survived their bubbles while things with bad fundamentals did not. There is no question any more that Bitcoin price was subject to a speculative bubble - the question is: do you believe its fundamentals are strong enough to survive the correction we are currently in the midst of?

[evoorhees]

enmaku - well said and nicely presented.

[Brunic]

enmaku - well said and nicely presented.

I agree! Great post enmaku. You explained exactly what I meant. 

[sukiho]

TL;DR

do you believe its fundamentals are strong enough to survive the correction we are currently in the midst of?

Yes of course. So long as you can buy internet drugs, Bitcoin will have a purpose.

Personally, I find it just plain neat.

yep, and its great for buying US$ too, its going to be around for a while is my guess