Rome Is Burning! I Brought Marshmallows! We Need: Chocolate & Graham Crackers..

[Jonathan Ryan Owens]

I can't be the only person 100% short on Bitcoinica, chanting BURN BURN BURN while watching MtGox Live, and taking sick satisfaction in watching every single attempt to prop the price met with a sell off.

Don't get me wrong, Bitcoin has unfortunately become is my life. I live on these boards, and my friends are all sick with the Bitcoin as well. Instead of porn, I now browse pictures of Bitcoin. Instead of feeling all sorts of weepy and sad at the current state of affairs, I'm keeping my chin up!

Is anyone else hungry?

Smores, anyone? We're missing an ingredient or two..

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[ineededausername]

[dayfall]

Sorry I didn't bring any food; I am just here to watch the fire.

Ooo, it just went up 10%.  Time to sell, brb.

[bitcon]

i'll be there with my extinguisher full of gasoline.

[Vandroiy]

I love the show.

Playing as well, of course.

[paraipan]

yeah, let's cook some 

[Minsc]

Right now at $2, there's a $90,000 buywall.  What happens if the rich guy or two cancels it?   Freefall.....?

[OgNasty]

I can't be the only person 100% short on Bitcoinica, chanting BURN BURN BURN while watching MtGox Live, and taking sick satisfaction in watching every single attempt to prop the price met with a sell off.

I'm sure you aren't.  The question you should be asking yourself is, "What is going to happen when everyone who is short has to buy shares to cover?"

My guess is most of the kids shorting BTC have absolutely no idea what they're doing and are going to lose everything as soon as one blip triggers their margin calls. 

As an experienced trader, I can tell you that it's fun to watch a stock you short keep dropping... However, it's 100x as fun to watch the shorts make a mad dash to buy shares to cover their shorts once the price starts rising.  Anyone who has ever been involved in a short squeeze wouldn't dare be shorting BTC at a price this low.  You're about 2 months too late.  My guess is you were a bagholder on the way down, and are about to lose the rest of your investment on the way up.  But please, keep adding to your short positions daily.  Soon you'll be adding something else to your shorts...

If this thread isn't screaming bullishness to the contrarian investor, nothing is.  Anyone know how many bitcoins are short on Bitcoinica right now?  I'm hoping it's about 7,000,000.   

[Vandroiy]

"Everybody who is short"... I don't think that's a whole lot of people.

There might be similar guys in the game though, those who sell everything and intend to buy back. If too many of those accumulate, things might also get interesting (or just fun to watch).

[evoorhees]

  Soon you'll be adding something else to your shorts...

That was pretty funny =)  Yeah we'll see what happens when people realize bubbles can occur in two directions...

[ineededausername]

  Soon you'll be adding something else to your shorts...

That was pretty funny =)  Yeah we'll see what happens when people realize bubbles can occur in two directions...

Bitcoin is a sound idea in the long run but that doesn't mean it has to start rallying at this exact moment.  How do you know that it won't go down to $1.5 or $1 or $0.5 before rallying?

[OgNasty]

Bitcoin is a sound idea in the long run but that doesn't mean it has to start rallying at this exact moment.  How do you know that it won't go down to $1.5 or $1 or $0.5 before rallying?

It could fall to $0.02.  I just hope we see a massive short squeeze at some point.  It would be fun to watch.

[Jonathan Ryan Owens]

Bitcoin is a sound idea in the long run but that doesn't mean it has to start rallying at this exact moment.  How do you know that it won't go down to $1.5 or $1 or $0.5 before rallying?

It could fall to $0.02.  I just hope we see a massive short squeeze at some point.  It would be fun to watch.

I highly doubt we'll be seeing a short squeeze considering that massive amount of Bitcoins that SEEM to have entered Bitcoinica et al <- FACEPALM, seemingly by an old miner / agent of an old miner, and ostensibly to prop or attempt to prop the price above $2. If you don't believe me, take a look at block explorer. Many coins coming out of cold storage rapidly in the past 24 - 36 hours, but very few of those coins seem to be selling directly on MtGox. $2.35 is completely artificial. There's ~40 - 60k Bitcoins in leveraged play by a very small few, fighting the sell offs and very definitely taking losses. How altruistic (rolls eyes).

I could also just be connecting the dots incorrectly.. Then again..

-Jonathan

[Vandroiy]

@Jonathan:

• I don't see how unfreezing old coins should keep price up.
• Wow, up to 60k BTC. That's... 126k USD. The world will collapse! Get used to it, at these prices BTC just aren't as scary as they used to be.

[Jonathan Ryan Owens]

@Jonathan:

• I don't see how unfreezing old coins should keep price up.
• Wow, up to 60k BTC. That's... 126k USD. The world will collapse! Get used to it, at these prices BTC just aren't as scary as they used to be.

@Vandroiy

• From my cursory glance at block explorer over the past 36 hours, there are around 60k coins that have been brought out of cold storage, always in waves of around 8k coins. The coins have changed addresses 2-3 times over the past 2 weeks, but always as a whole (8k -> 8k -> 8k)
  
• Incorrect: 60k BTC * 1:5 leverage = 300k BTC or ~$700,000 USD. At Bitcoinica, when you go into a position that goes above and beyond the aggregate counterparty positions (shorts in this case), Bitcoinica has to hedge into MtGox directly.
  
  • You can use BTC directly at Bitcoinica for either long or short positions. I can send 10k Bitcoins to Bitcoinica and go Long 50k Bitcoins. If there are only 40k Bitcoins Short, my 50k Long position (on 10k Bitcoins @ 1:5) will be hedged directly at MtGox. This is where the large purchases have come from.
    
  • You would use this strategy as a large holder of Bitcoins as a desperate attempt to ignite a rally. If you succeed, you also profit. If you fail, you lose, but since the large holder seems to also have large reserves in place, they will likely not be liquidated, and it seems that they are going to maintain and even add to their position should the price continue to drop. They are providing price support, and are probably party to or directly related to the fake bid wall on MtGox as well.
    
    Just my two cents..
    
    -Jonathan

[old_engineer]

I don't think very many are short, either.  This unscientific poll says 2 out of 50 voters are short:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=49171.0

I'm sure there are attempts at manipulation going on, but I think this is a good think.  The market is very new, and I think there's some sound thinking behind propping up the market, at least for a little while.

If bitcoin prices can manage to stay in the $2-$3 range for a month, I think a price floor will be established.  Stability will increase confidence, and could bring in the cash needed to stabilize the market long-term.

I don't think bitcoin needs more users, it just needs to reassure the users it already has that they won't lose all their money overnight.

[OgNasty]

I can't be the only person 100% short on Bitcoinica, chanting BURN BURN BURN while watching MtGox Live, and taking sick satisfaction in watching every single attempt to prop the price met with a sell off.

Looking back in a few weeks, this could be the post that signaled the bottom...

[GoWest]

I can't be the only person 100% short on Bitcoinica, chanting BURN BURN BURN while watching MtGox Live, and taking sick satisfaction in watching every single attempt to prop the price met with a sell off.

Looking back in a few weeks, this could be the post that signaled the bottom...

Not only this post, but the fact that the media came out in droves, and the activity on Twitter jumped exponentially.  There was not a bull to be found.  It was The Day Bitcoin was Declared Dead.

[ineededausername]

Time to revive this thread

[Jonathan Ryan Owens]

Smores anyone? BURN! $1.5 here we come!