Why am I only getting half the coins that coinwarz estimates?

[usao]

I fully understand that it's only an estimation, but I would have expected to be closer than a factor of 2.
Both my miners and my pools are showing similar KH/s numbers, they don't match exactly but are fairly close, within 10% of eachother.
I also understand that rejects and orphans are just plain wasted effort.
However, I ran several tests using different pools, where I emptied out my coin balance, then ran for 24 hours, +- just a few minutes.
In virtually all cases, the coinwarz estimator was almost exactly twice the actual coin I received for that period.
Does anyone else see this or is it somthing to do specifically with my setup?
Oh, I do have a small handful of HW errors, perhaps 8-10 over the 24 hours across all my GPU's.
I don't know how HW errors will detract from the overall coin generation.
Would appreciate any feedback on this, as a factor of 2 seems like something which can be addressed...

[usao]

Forgot to mention that I did wait for all the outstanding shares to get paid before counting coins...

[hoquet]

I'm in the same boat as you. I use coinwarz to help understand what some of the most profitable coins are, then I point my miners accordingly. I don't understand when I enter in my hashrate, it calculates the expected coins per day, but I also get about 1/2 the amount.

In fact, even when I look at the pools themselves, I see pools expected values which are much higher than what I am actually getting. I have almost no hardware errors and very few shares actually get rejected. I took the time once on a particular site to look at a block and see my share contributions. It gets very difficult to analyze since every share that I contribute has a different share difficulty. The share difficulty will change from 32 to 512 especially with those pools using var diff.

I think that those expected amounts are based on the most optimal share diff as well as no dead packets and min latency. I've bounced around multiple pools, but still no dramatic increase. I will say that I have seen better results in pools where there are very few miners. I was on a new coin and a pool where I was the 2nd highest hashrate. In that circumstance I was getting 80-90% of what I expected.

[usao]

Good to know about the smaller pools potentially paying better.
Ill give that a try.