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Author Topic: Who will pull a Lingham this time?  (Read 167 times)
cellard
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August 16, 2018, 03:43:29 PM
Merited by gentlemand (2)
 #1

Vinny Lingham sold back in march 2017 expecting way lower prices, I don't remember exactly what figure he predicted but im pretty certain he expected it to go well down into 3 figures again.

Of course, we all know what happened: He sold right at the damn bottom, before the rise to $20,000 started in the following months after.

The key question now is: Someone is going to be this guy. Someone is always this guy. There is always some "expert" of sorts (or anyone with a big Twitter megaphone for that matter) that expects super low prices, and ends up screwing up big several % points, just like Vinny.

We have a Tone Vays prediction of $4900 best case scenario to $1200 lowest case scenario. (remember that he predicted $7500 as best case scenario for a 2017 top)

His friend from "Hyperwave" predicts something ridiculous like 3 $figures.

We got some hedge funds of whatever in Bloomberg predicting $1300

Who else is there? add yours if you know anyone "famous" with a pessimistic prediction so we can monitor how they do.

The main point here is: Some of these guys will look like clowns in the long term because someone always makes an overly pessimistic prediction, which costs money to people that follow said prediction. It doesn't matter if the price goes lower than it is now, someone will get it wrong by a long shot.

Who will then be the next to join the unfortunate list?

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August 17, 2018, 12:19:23 PM
 #2

I remember back in March 2017 that I was expecting the bitcoin price to go under 1000 USD. Grin
Vinny Lingham was just an ignorant guy that was following the short term trends and made a prediction without any good analysis and strong evidence.I can see thousands of traders that are expecting the bitcoin price to crash during the next few months. There will always be guys like Vinny Lingham on one side and John McAfee on the other side.

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August 17, 2018, 03:31:04 PM
 #3

I honestly thought that the price would lose traction when the price stopped @ $2900 and sold my holdings since 2014. It made me quite a fortune and suddenly, the price started to move again. After settling @ $4500, I bought a few more and just let the price do its thing. $10k came and it again stopped momentarily, giving me a hefty 2x return to my initial investment until it played along the lines of $12k until $19k happened. For me, if you're already in the green, there's nothing wrong selling at what price range you're comfortable at. I'm sure almost everyone did what this guy pulled off once in their trading adventures, and it's okay since it helps you gain knowledge and better your decision-making in times such as this.

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August 17, 2018, 03:44:37 PM
 #4

My genuine prediction when we entered 2017 was to reach $2000 before the end of the year, but not with the intention of selling at that price. In no shape or form could I have ever seen the massive bull run kick in lifting the market up all the way to nearly the $20,000 level. This is why you should always cash out profits in smaller quantities.

At $2000 I thought cool, my prediction was right.

My thoughts afterwards;

At $3000; the market will correct.
At $4000; the market will correct.
Jump
At $10,000; very important level and we'll tank hard from here. This is where I cashed out like 25% of my profits.
At $11,000; people starting to get crazy.
Jump
At $15,000; cashed out another 10% of my profits.
At $16,000; insanity.
At $18,000; we're nearing the $20,000 level and with how the start of the year is historically a bad one, and traders will sell the CME news, I cashed out 25% of my profits.
At $19,000; yep, somewhat expected.
At $19,500; boom bie boom puffff, down we go.

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August 17, 2018, 07:04:12 PM
 #5

Dunno. But it's a pretty standard trajectory regardless of which direction you call for. My personal favourite was Richard Heart who got himself a nice wee audience with his lofty commandments. Then the price went south and he started crying and saying Amazoncoin would be the best because you could use it with a bank.

All of these self proclaimed 'thought leaders' seem to wind up going batty in the end. Far better to stay modest and real.

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August 17, 2018, 07:20:35 PM
 #6

I remember back in March 2017 that I was expecting the bitcoin price to go under 1000 USD. Grin
Vinny Lingham was just an ignorant guy that was following the short term trends and made a prediction without any good analysis and strong evidence.I can see thousands of traders that are expecting the bitcoin price to crash during the next few months. There will always be guys like Vinny Lingham on one side and John McAfee on the other side.

Not only he sold for peanuts, he also was supporting 2x.


Dunno. But it's a pretty standard trajectory regardless of which direction you call for. My personal favourite was Richard Heart who got himself a nice wee audience with his lofty commandments. Then the price went south and he started crying and saying Amazoncoin would be the best because you could use it with a bank.

All of these self proclaimed 'thought leaders' seem to wind up going batty in the end. Far better to stay modest and real.

Well, to be fair, Richard Heart predicted around $20,000 for X-mas, so he was pretty accurate, compared to Tone Vays that is. I think he then said it would go for $25,000, and we all know that was a dead cat bounce. I remember he went nuts for a while, made a video on twitter or somewhere (now delete) where he was like crying or something, saying it was all over. I think he had a long position so he got fucked with the crash.

Richard had some good moments when he was in the WCN podcast, but he's a bit of a troll and has a scammy vive. He went supporting some shitcoins, and attempted to create his own ones, not sure how that is doing these days. He claims to be a billionaire which is most likely bullshit.

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August 18, 2018, 12:08:40 AM
 #7

Not only he sold for peanuts, he also was supporting 2x.

He sold because he believed one of the pre bcash forks like Bitcoin Unlimited was going to swallow Bitcoin whole which shows how little understanding he had of the whole thing.

Mr. Heart had some entertaining thoughts but he proved to be just another scared kiddie. You can pick up equally interesting thoughts elsewhere without being exposed to disturbing candelabras and less hubris too.

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August 18, 2018, 04:07:30 AM
 #8

i don't follow anyone's predictions so i don't know who that dude is, mostly because they are not telling us their real predictions but what they want to happen Tongue. for example when someone was telling you price is going to fall to $3000 in the past month, what they meant was that "i want to buy bitcoin at $5999 and i want YOU to panic sell so that i can buy there". same is with rise predictors!

but the idea of selling because you expect a lower price is not a bad thing. it actually is one of the most important strategies in any market. the only thing important in this strategy is "when" you are selling! for instance if you sell when the price has already fallen a lot and there is no indication of more fall then you are doing it wrong. but if you sell  before the bottom or when you sell when the drop has begun but it is in its early stages then you are doing it right!

not to mention that even if you made  the mistake of selling at a bad time, that is not the end of the world. the decisions that you make after the mistake determines your final fate. for instance if you sell now speculating there will be a drop and price shoots up, if you sit around crying you lose, but if you simply buy back accepting a small loss for a bigger gain then you will win!

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August 18, 2018, 09:17:57 AM
 #9

I doesnt matter who. The nocoiners or non believers will all be wrong, every one in its time. Bitcoin has its trajectory and nothing can stop it. Bitcoin has only one enemy and it is bitcoin itself and its dividing community. Nothing from the outside can touch it.
I cant wait to see Roubini and Krugman weeping on the next rocket launch to 50k, and after that cheering when it is plummeting back to 30k. They are pathetic.

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micgoossens
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August 18, 2018, 09:31:41 AM
 #10

after every BIGGER drop i always think bottom is reached ..... reversal is coming and @some point it always does so for the hodler inside me there's no big of a problem when i'm wrong and the drop gets extended to a bigger drop its the same story for me ..... i bought always and sold almost nothing only given away some in a few contest games to keep a good spirit here and there....
i also never intent to sell all of my coins i'm just feeling good to have my capital in BTC and if i really need something that i cannot cover in fiat or so than i would sell something but i'm more looking to increase my BTC holdings than the other way around
also little pity that tone vays won the bet with going below 6k i hate when someone wins with betting against even in a very short time period .... and dumbasses like vinny lingham let them sell and be rekt its a good lesson for them and many others
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August 18, 2018, 05:25:25 PM
 #11

Vinny Lingham sold back in march 2017 expecting way lower prices, I don't remember exactly what figure he predicted but im pretty certain he expected it to go well down into 3 figures again.

Of course, we all know what happened: He sold right at the damn bottom, before the rise to $20,000 started in the following months after.

The key question now is: Someone is going to be this guy. Someone is always this guy. There is always some "expert" of sorts (or anyone with a big Twitter megaphone for that matter) that expects super low prices, and ends up screwing up big several % points, just like Vinny.

We have a Tone Vays prediction of $4900 best case scenario to $1200 lowest case scenario. (remember that he predicted $7500 as best case scenario for a 2017 top)

His friend from "Hyperwave" predicts something ridiculous like 3 $figures.

We got some hedge funds of whatever in Bloomberg predicting $1300

Who else is there? add yours if you know anyone "famous" with a pessimistic prediction so we can monitor how they do.

The main point here is: Some of these guys will look like clowns in the long term because someone always makes an overly pessimistic prediction, which costs money to people that follow said prediction. It doesn't matter if the price goes lower than it is now, someone will get it wrong by a long shot.

Who will then be the next to join the unfortunate list?


Raise did not start mid 2017 but at end of 2015.  If he sold at mid 2017 he sold in middle of the bull run. Some could say he sold to early.  but trust me this early adopters are full of Bitcoins and would never sell everything.

No one or rare can predict TOP precisely. I remember Charlie Lee tweeted that at $6000 Bitcoin is expensive and should soon reach ATH.  Not sure why would say that is a pessimistic or anything. More realistic. Basically all that was here from 2013 should know thee will be ATH and then drop. But almost no one should know it will be at 20k.

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August 18, 2018, 09:22:32 PM
 #12

The main point here is: Some of these guys will look like clowns in the long term because someone always makes an overly pessimistic prediction, which costs money to people that follow said prediction. It doesn't matter if the price goes lower than it is now, someone will get it wrong by a long shot.

This is true, but the number of people who get it wrong in the other direction will be a lot more. The number of people who invested substantial amounts of money when Bitcoin was trading at over $15,000 are substantial. And they tried to cost average their holdings when Bitcoin started trending down. And some of them have lost all appetite for cryptocurrencies now and are thinking of exiting at a loss.


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August 18, 2018, 10:22:59 PM
 #13

The number of people who invested substantial amounts of money when Bitcoin was trading at over $15,000 are substantial. And they tried to cost average their holdings when Bitcoin started trending down. And some of them have lost all appetite for cryptocurrencies now and are thinking of exiting at a loss.
It's impossible for people to know what dip to buy on the way down, especially if this is their first ever crypto bull run. For them a decrease of 20% is a fantastic entry point, but they have no idea that this market corrects with 75% on average.

It's even a tough call for the more experienced Bitcoiners. I have seen how mostly all of them were extremely hyped up and were really believing that $50,000 was the next stop while the price was still around the $17,000 mark.

Then their ultimate bottom on the way down was the psychological $10,000 mark, then $8000, then $7000 and then $6000. People can act tough all they want, but they were doing nothing but playing the guessing game.

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August 19, 2018, 01:24:05 PM
 #14

Then their ultimate bottom on the way down was the psychological $10,000 mark, then $8000, then $7000 and then $6000. People can act tough all they want, but they were doing nothing but playing the guessing game.
Everyone is playing the guessing game with bitcoin I guess since no one had constantly predicted bitcoin price trajectory in short-term accurately. Sooner or later, I am sure that someone will be like the guy mentioned by OP during the next bull run since no one can accurately know when the next one would occur but my guess is that it would occur again after the next halving.
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August 19, 2018, 03:46:51 PM
 #15

Not only he sold for peanuts, he also was supporting 2x.

He sold because he believed one of the pre bcash forks like Bitcoin Unlimited was going to swallow Bitcoin whole which shows how little understanding he had of the whole thing.

Mr. Heart had some entertaining thoughts but he proved to be just another scared kiddie. You can pick up equally interesting thoughts elsewhere without being exposed to disturbing candelabras and less hubris too.

He was part of the infamous New York Agreement to get segwit2x going, im not sure he was a BU proponent, he just wanted segwit with 2 MB blocks, the so called "BarryCoin", which was developed by jgarzik under a client called btc1 or something, definitely not the same client and devs as BU.
We tried to tell him that he was wrong and it's was not going to happen but he wouldn't listen.

I just checked out what Heart is doing these days. Apparently he is back in Youtube and he hired some sort of instagram model/escort to discuss crypto with while she wears a bikini lol.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwx9dz444y4

I remember he said he would do it so he would get people clicking on their videos but I thought he was joking, but he actually did it.

Still has his forkcoin "BitcoinHEX" and his "CDFToken" thing on his video descriptions so I guess he is still working on these/pumping these.

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August 19, 2018, 05:09:58 PM
 #16

He was part of the infamous New York Agreement to get segwit2x going, im not sure he was a BU proponent, he just wanted segwit with 2 MB blocks, the so called "BarryCoin", which was developed by jgarzik under a client called btc1 or something, definitely not the same client and devs as BU.
We tried to tell him that he was wrong and it's was not going to happen but he wouldn't listen.

I'm pretty sure he sold up before S2X was even a twinkle in anyone's ballsack. It was down to Bitcoin Unlimited hashpower nudging the 40%s or whatever it was in early 2017. He was always a hash power fan so the theory of S2x was no doubt appealing.

https://twitter.com/vinnylingham/status/860191305556566016?lang=en

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August 19, 2018, 07:03:35 PM
 #17

Who else is there? add yours if you know anyone "famous" with a pessimistic prediction so we can monitor how they do.

The main point here is: Some of these guys will look like clowns in the long term because someone always makes an overly pessimistic prediction, which costs money to people that follow said prediction. It doesn't matter if the price goes lower than it is now, someone will get it wrong by a long shot.

Who will then be the next to join the unfortunate list?
As a matter of fact, it's easier to find famous positive predictions with btc going over $25k in 2018, than famous pessimists. W. Buffett is pretty negative about bitcoin, he keeps saying it's a useless thing, because it's not representing any real product in contrast with stock. I couldn't find any specific price predictions made by him, though. I also found this Nouriel Roubini economist guy who said back in February that btc will go down to zero. This guy is pretty serious, he has a Harvard Phd degree in Economy and there's an article on CNBC oh his 'noted economist's' views, and yet we all know how wrong he is probably going to be. I choose him as my famous pessimistic guy.

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August 19, 2018, 08:54:23 PM
 #18

The number of people who invested substantial amounts of money when Bitcoin was trading at over $15,000 are substantial. And they tried to cost average their holdings when Bitcoin started trending down. And some of them have lost all appetite for cryptocurrencies now and are thinking of exiting at a loss.
It's impossible for people to know what dip to buy on the way down, especially if this is their first ever crypto bull run. For them a decrease of 20% is a fantastic entry point, but they have no idea that this market corrects with 75% on average.

It's even a tough call for the more experienced Bitcoiners. I have seen how mostly all of them were extremely hyped up and were really believing that $50,000 was the next stop while the price was still around the $17,000 mark.

Then their ultimate bottom on the way down was the psychological $10,000 mark, then $8000, then $7000 and then $6000. People can act tough all they want, but they were doing nothing but playing the guessing game.

True. For those who sold during the bull rally, the point of re-entry is the toughest decision to make. It is a tough call to take, especially given the wild volatility of Bitcoin.
Those who invested in altcoins have an even tougher job of deciding their re-entry points. Some altcoins are down more than 95% down from their peaks.


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August 19, 2018, 10:10:25 PM
 #19

Who else is there? add yours if you know anyone "famous" with a pessimistic prediction so we can monitor how they do.

The main point here is: Some of these guys will look like clowns in the long term because someone always makes an overly pessimistic prediction, which costs money to people that follow said prediction. It doesn't matter if the price goes lower than it is now, someone will get it wrong by a long shot.

Who will then be the next to join the unfortunate list?
As a matter of fact, it's easier to find famous positive predictions with btc going over $25k in 2018, than famous pessimists. W. Buffett is pretty negative about bitcoin, he keeps saying it's a useless thing, because it's not representing any real product in contrast with stock. I couldn't find any specific price predictions made by him, though. I also found this Nouriel Roubini economist guy who said back in February that btc will go down to zero. This guy is pretty serious, he has a Harvard Phd degree in Economy and there's an article on CNBC oh his 'noted economist's' views, and yet we all know how wrong he is probably going to be. I choose him as my famous pessimistic guy.


There are million economists thinking Bitcoin will go to zero. But they dont bother with Bitcoin. They dont talk about it, because is of zero interest to them. Many of them were interested in Bitcoin in 2012, when 2009 financial crisis was still an important subject. But then they dismissed Bitcoin and just ignore it. It is sort of funny how it will hit their head one day.

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August 20, 2018, 09:24:39 AM
 #20

From what I've seen until now, usually people are very optimistic when it comes to the investments they make.

Very few people do what Vinny did. I think he just wanted to see if he can bring BTC down using his influences channels and then re-buy.

Looks like this plan didn't work though Smiley
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