[POLL] So what is the REAL cause of the problems with MtGox?

[NLNico]

There are a lot of theories and speculation on this forum and within the bitcoin community about the current issues with MtGox. Most do assume that the money is gone since MtGox is so quite about everything. Let's have some overview and see what most people think at this moment.




According to the MtGox Situation Crisis Strategy Draft 750K BTC is lost. Different theories for that:

- "Gox was robbed of a massive amount of coins (800k+) at some prior point in time, possibly June 2011, and has been operating a fractional reserve since." - Kraken CEO theory
- 750K BTC was stolen from MtGox because of the transaction malleability problem



There are several theories that the cold wallets cannot be accessed but that there is still at least 200K+ BTC in it. Either by losing private keys or frozen cold wallets because of the goverment. Arguments / articles / topics:

- I bet that Mark lost the private keys and is crying theft out of embarassment
- Proofs that Gox have at least 200k BTC - lost keys most likely not theft
- <MagicalTux> Well, technically speaking it's not "lost" just yet, just temporarily unavailable
- Mt.Gox being subpoenaed = freezing of withdrawals and site shutdown?
- Mark is locked out of the bank, due to an investigation that he is fully cooperating with
- The US Government has control of Gox's cold wallet


Others think that Mark is not just incompetent but a thief and (probably) stole the BTC.

- Mt Gox is bankrupt, and Mark Karpeles is a thief!
- DONT LET MARK KARPÈLES LEAVE THE COUNTRY!



What do you guys think? And tell me if I missed important theories / arguments.



Personally I have no money @ MtGox, but I really hope that somehow the problem is that the cold wallets are currently not accessible - but will be in future - just so ppl won't lose their money and/or life savings. Even tho it does look like the money is gone. All arguments/theories are both ridiculous yet theoretically possible IMO.

[clownius]

I smell a government player involved.  The stench reminds me of the US government.  They screw people good.

The other possibility i see is someone screwed up.  At least one thread recent suggests seeing 200k bitcoin on a known mtgox address.  So losing keys is possible.

[NLNico]

20 days ago, Gonzague Gay-Bouchery (Manager Business Development, and Mark Karpeles right hand man) said this:

Q8. Why doesn’t Gox prove they are solvent by transferring a large quantity of BTC between two internal wallets like Mark previously did. Then we can all check it out on the blockchain and be reassured?
• The overwhelming majority of BTC are held in cold storage. Logistically and legally in would be difficult to replicate the transfer “trick” Mark previously employed at Gox to prove their solvency.

Q9. Try me, how hard is it, what exactly is involved?
• Obviously I can’t go into too much detail for security reasons, but it would involve physically obtaining them from 6 or more locations.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1x9gue/my_protest_at_mtgox_offices_5_to_7th_february/

Which also implies that they are legally unable to transfer funds from the cold wallets.

Obviously we shouldn't believe anything that anyone from MtGox says, but it's good to have all sources of info at least.

[Jeronimus]

whatever the details are behind this...

part of the story will be that Karpeles was either put in this position by powers wanting to harm/kill BTC or he was blackmailed to act as an assassin, maybe by some well dressed men in black coats working for the NSA/CIA/FBI, making sure he will follow their assassination orders.

In any case, this man is responsible for thousand of ruined lives, and should have spoken out even if under some gag order knowing very well the implications of not doing so, because then he would have the full back up by the community rather than getting pressure from all sides now, rightfully...

Those that are going to haste to lead this investigation will MOST LIKELY be those that pushed him to act like this unless he was volunteering from the beginning to do the attack on BTC.
They will do so, because they will want to not have anything point towards their involvement in this case for various reasons.

There was definitely some manipulation going on with fake goxBTC and goxUSD created out of thin air and there was also a lot of arbitrage going on with exchange owners conspiring with Karpeles to get the job done faster.
All this added to harming BTC, and you should not listen too much to those that were very close to Karpeles and in the position of executing such. They are very likely trying to save their own asses with well written articles suggesting they are angels.

Hopefully we will know much more about what really went on in the near future and hopefully there will be a way for those with funds stuck in to get shares in gox without having to pay for the liabilities that are probably blown up with all the IOUs created.

[leopard2]

It does not have to be an evil involvement from the government side. If you get defrauded (happened to me once) and you file charges against the unknown scammer, the police will not reveal any details of the investigation to you. And you will most definitely not discuss such details in public, so as not to help the scammer.  

Maybe there was a theft, and Gox and the police are working to get their coins back? Or coins from a criminal activity have been deposited to Gox, and since they were too dumb to have segregated accounts or even proper accounting, it is hard to determine which coins are criminal and which ones are legit?  

[NLNico]

Well the idea about the "government theory" is basically:

Maybe I'm insane but here's a possibility: A clear link was established between Silk Road and Mt. Gox. Significant portions of the cold wallet are now frozen. (Yes, the US still has a lot of pull in other countries eg Japan. Think Kim Dotcom. Plus Gox is a registered entity in the United States.)

Transaction Malleability did steal a portion of bitcoins, but not the insane 99.7% amount. Gox is now unable to refill their hot wallet due to the seizure. They are now aiming for an acquisition to cover the funds stolen by transaction malleability, however a gag order prevents Gox from disclosing exactly why the funds are missing, hence for the time being they blame it on Transaction Malleability.

Gox likely had a tiered system of "hot wallet", "cold wallet" and "coldest wallet". It's possible the US Gov took control of the "coldest wallet", which would contain the largest amount.

Gox is possibly now working on some type of 3-way full tilt poker style acquisition deal (Gox, new owners, US Gov) which will result in funds being returned plus a drop in pending charges (which could be sealed).

All pure speculation, but I'm curious as to if you guys can think of anything else that ties this theory together?

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1z2xo5/speculation_the_us_government_has_control_of_goxs/



IMO there could be a possibility that this is true. Or maybe I just hope it's true because then the bitcoins are at least not permanently lost.

[dogechode]

Mark spent it on Japanese hookers and blackjack.

[Bit_Happy]

Mark spent it on Japanese hookers and blackjack.

No it was Japanese blackjack and "Blue Balls" hookers.