Banned dude projects Bitcoin bounce maybe to $10k, then renewed decline to $4600

[Reuel1]

What does banned dude think of the influence of the ICO circus being unraveled on the BTC price? Or does he think BTC bouncing will give that market a bit of a lifeline? It just feels weird to think BTC will have a strong upward run while ICOs and ETH bleed down...

[Traxo]

Here is an updated perspective:

https://steemit.com/blockchain/@anonymint/jesus-bitcoin-is-somewhat-sovereign-democracy-not

Also he wants to suggest that Costa Rica and Uruguay might reasonable alternatives in the Americas. In particular, Uruguay has a reasonably low crime rate, has a significantly European population, and they legalized marijuana to prevent the drug lords from having a profitable market there. Also foreign residents pay no taxes of foreign earned income and capital gains for 5 years. The GDP has been shrinking though, so looks like they will also have a crisis along with the rest of the world, especially with the neighboring Brazil and Argentina economies being so sick of late.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_taxation#Individuals

[fabiorem]

Just because the capitulation already happened, dont means we should be spending rocket memes. Price is still too cheap, too low. We need to be at least on 10k, which is half of last ATH, to start posting rocket memes. For now, its more apropriate to post elevators.

[Traxo]

@thejaytiesto and @Reuel1 asked for updates on the tangential issue:

https://steemit.com/politics/@anonymint/re-anonymint-re-anonymint-re-anonymint-re-anonymint-succinct-absolute-truth-about-9-11-and-las-vegas-massacre-20180924t131734749z

https://steemit.com/politics/@anonymint/re-anonymint-re-anonymint-re-anonymint-succinct-absolute-truth-about-9-11-and-las-vegas-massacre-20180924t115909836z

[raven7886]

The banned dude has been posting about this decline:

https://busy.org/@anonymint/re-anonymint-most-important-bitcoin-chart-ever-20181115t203603758z

He rebuked Craig Wright:

https://medium.com/@shelby_78386/craig-isnt-smart-enough-to-have-been-satoshi-and-he-knows-damn-well-that-satoshi-wasn-t-a-person-6d2f1b543576

I hate these prediction people. There is not a single person who can predict bitcoin price. The price didn't fall because of some indicator knowledge or anything, it dropped because Craig Wright sold a lot of bitcoins, thats all.

There are just 2 rules in price estimates of bitcoin ;
1- Nobody, NOBODY can guess the price and what will happen to bitcoin, 2- A lot of people think they are exceptions to this rule. There are no people in this earth who can estimate what bitcoin will do, out of a billion price predictions of course there will be some right ones but that doesn't mean they know what they are talking about. They do not. They have no idea and neither do we. We just hope that one day bitcoin will be at a price where we feel happy about selling and live a good life afterwards.

[fabiorem]

About Craig Wright, did Satoshi's original wallet moved recently, or is this just a bluff?

[gentlemand]

About Craig Wright, did Satoshi's original wallet moved recently, or is this just a bluff?

I think we would've heard that about a trillion times over in letters five miles high if that had happened.

As ever, everything that passes from his blow job lips is questionable in the extreme.

There was the address signing thing that was debunked from multiple angles.

[ssmc2]

So what are Shelby's thoughts on the current price level?

[Last of the V8s]

So what are Shelby's thoughts on the current price level?

Well I can't exactly keep up with Shelby Thought, but I know he keeps referring back to this chart

The problem as I see it is the extrapolation based on a limited amount of data. We're trying to make predictions based on a cycle that has completed only three times.

A simple alternative, for instance, could be a repeating A-B-C pattern. 3 part patterns are commonly seen across various markets.

Or the pattern could be more complex. Here's another alternative analysis of the (well, a similar set of) data:


Source: https://twitter.com/CryptoKaleo/status/1009156602039971840

afaiu He's bullish for a big surprise surge very soon now. And very bearish on altcoins.

[ssmc2]

So what are Shelby's thoughts on the current price level?

Well I can't exactly keep up with Shelby Thought, but I know he keeps referring back to this chart

The problem as I see it is the extrapolation based on a limited amount of data. We're trying to make predictions based on a cycle that has completed only three times.

A simple alternative, for instance, could be a repeating A-B-C pattern. 3 part patterns are commonly seen across various markets.

Or the pattern could be more complex. Here's another alternative analysis of the (well, a similar set of) data:


Source: https://twitter.com/CryptoKaleo/status/1009156602039971840

afaiu He's bullish for a big surprise surge very soon now. And very bearish on altcoins.

Hmm haven't seen anything recent but his steemit post where he mentioned that chart was followed up with this...

It should be before June 2010 and at $0.10 which is more evident on Kunal Sen’s chart from my prior post. Also the $100,000 expected peak price is much too high. My alternative scenario always had it at about $32,000 which agrees with both the declining spread model and the declining percentages in my table below.

[jbreher]

I received this today from Shelby via PM. Submitted here without commment for your consideration:

I written detailed analysis in my protonmail to several of you. But some of you are not in my trusted discussion group.


Bitcoin beginning a parabolic moonshot! Altcoins may crash now until later this year!



Here are the various projections I have for the new ATH price around March 2020:

1. $1154 ÷ $260 × $19666 = $87287     ($260 #3 on April 10, 2013)
2. $1154 ÷ $63 × $3122 = $57187       ($63 long-winded bottom after #3 in 2013)
3. $31 ÷ $1.10 × $19666 = $554223     ($1.10 #3 on Feb 10, 2011)
4. $32 ÷ $0.70 × $3122 = $142720      ($0.70 long-winded bottom after #3 in 20131)

($1154 for #5 and #1 on Nov 30, 2013, Bitstamp, projected to early March 2020)
($32 for #5 and #1 on Jun 8, 2011, Bitstamp, projected to early March 2020)


5. Drawing a line through the #3 in 2011 through the #3 in 2013, also runs through the #5 and #1 on Nov 30, 2013. Drawing a line through the #3 in 2013 through the #3 in 2017, project to approximately $133,000 for the #5 and #1 posited to occur March 2020.

6. A Markov model predicted the volatility range for Bitcoin in 1 year between $3k (our bottom) and $82k:

https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-bitcoin-price-prediction-for-2019/answer/John-Young-390

Here is some more on that:

https://medium.com/@VidrihMarko/bitcoin-2020-at-one-million-is-this-really-realistic-ca8992a23fbf

7. Let’s consider John Mcafee’s unspecified model:

https://micky.com.au/russian-economist-insists-us-sanctions-will-push-bitcoin-to-2m/

https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/john-mcafee-says-point-set-technology-puts-bitcoins-price-at-least-1-million-by-end-of-2020/

https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/887039604846714881

https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/1124436476962516994

Also realize his $1 million prediction is by the end of 2020, but he not considering the volatility in the price:

https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/938938539282190337

So crash in the price before the end of 2020 could derail his bet, even though in terms of fundamental valuation he might be correct.

But how could Mcafee be correct? Now look again at @infofront’s chart:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4919568.msg44351466#msg44351466


And read my reply to John Mcafee:

Quote from: https://twitter.com/iamnotback/status/1126843991637409792
If that #3 – #5 (2018–2020) is extension of #1 (≤ 2010) – #3 (2017), not #1 (2014)? (c.f. linked chart)

Quote from: https://twitter.com/iamnotback/status/1126845026716094464
Notice that #1 – #2 has a less steep slope than #3 – #5, thus returning to the rate of ascent of < 2011 for the coming #5, topologically connects patterns within patterns. Nature is fractal.

[Last of the V8s]

Here is the new chart which shows what should happen with the Bitcoin price from here. It is going to shock everyone because the price is headed to at least $0.4 million by roughly Q1 2020:

https://imgur.com/a/lMIIRyF

Here is a link to my blog comment post with the new chart and my written explanation of the patterns I have drawn on the original chart, which explain why John Mcafee is correct:

https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/re-anonymint-most-important-bitcoin-chart-ever-20190511t061008384z

https://busy.org/@anonymint/re-anonymint-most-important-bitcoin-chart-ever-20190511t061008384z

Would one of you (the first one to do it) please post an update to the following BCTalk thread where @infofront had posted the original chart:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4919568.msg44309946#msg44309946

You should link to my Steemit explanation and also include a copy of the chart image directly in the post. Here a direct link to the chart image:

https://i.imgur.com/dx9G5k8.png

[gentlemand]

At least we won't have to wait too long to find out.

I largely hope it doesn't pan out like that because it'll be virtually impossible to capitalise on it. I see little evidence of exchanges having significantly beefed up.

The longer it's been since the peak, the less keen I am on it happening again that way. I know it will all the same.

[infofront]

At least we won't have to wait too long to find out.

I largely hope it doesn't pan out like that because it'll be virtually impossible to capitalise on it. I see little evidence of exchanges having significantly beefed up.

The longer it's been since the peak, the less keen I am on it happening again that way. I know it will all the same.

I'm thinking that for it to be possible from a fundamental perspective, we'll need ETFs and shit.

Look at all the current/upcoming mainstream platforms that Joe Six-Pack will have available to trade Bitcoin on: ETFs + Bakkt + Robinhood + TD Ameritrade + E-Trade + Fidelity

Not only will drastically improved trading infrastructure and tools bypass the shit exchanges we've had so far (not much better than Magic The Gathering Online eXchange), but the real big money will have the green light to get in. More cautious and technologically impaired investors will suddenly have the impetus to get in.

Couple that with the fact that altcoins may get left behind for a significant portion of the next bull run, and we're in for the mother of all bubbles.

[jbreher]

You should link to my Steemit explanation and also include a copy of the chart image directly in the post. Here a direct link to the chart image:

https://i.imgur.com/dx9G5k8.png

[gentlemand]

I'm thinking that for it to be possible from a fundamental perspective, we'll need ETFs and shit.

Look at all the current/upcoming mainstream platforms that Joe Six-Pack will have available to trade Bitcoin on: ETFs + Bakkt + Robinhood + TD Ameritrade + E-Trade + Fidelity

Agreed. I don't think things can notch up a level without a higher tier of platform. What's out there at present won't cut it.

That also means that shitcoins won't get a look in as most won't be considered by any of them.

[dwgscale11]

Looking better than better

[infofront]

Banned dude updates projections with lots more details: https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/re-anonymint-most-important-bitcoin-chart-ever-20190511t061008384z

[Last of the V8s]

Okay I have added significantly AGAIN to these posts:

https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/re-anonymint-most-important-bitcoin-chart-ever-20190511t061008384z

Also make sure you see the following up post where I have added a three wave price prediction model which targets a Bitcoin price of $208k and $1.5 million (likely 2020 and 2021):

https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/re-anonymint-re-anonymint-most-important-bitcoin-chart-ever-20190513t203453167z

I doubt I will make any more edits.

further updoot
edit:
further update of the update

I also added another more detail price projection scenario chart. Might help if someone displays (not just link) one or both of these images in the BCTalk thread.

[Last of the V8s]

I added a more precisely computed timing, detailed scenario chart. And this is scary and also I think this is the most likely outcome. I really think we are going to $78k within this week! WTF!

I hope Last of the V8s can add this last update to his update of the update of the update of the BCTalk thread. Because this is the most shocking of the scenarios and it precisely matches (proportionally scaled) the timing and moves in 2010/2011.

I promise that is the last one.

This crazy price action coming could potentially destroy many exchanges. And the likely reason for a potential nosedive from $78,000 to $1700 as depicted on the above linked chart!

I hope I’m incorrect!

Yikes

Thanks a bunch Shelby