Banned dude projects Bitcoin bounce maybe to $10k, then renewed decline to $4600

[Traxo]

https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/re-anonymint-bitcoin-to-usd15k-in-march-usd8-5k-by-june-then-usd30-k-by-q1-2019-20180818t094501515z

He also seems to think many or most altcoins might possibly decline to near 0 in 2019.

Any thoughts? (not about him but the logic and data for the projections)

EDIT:

Shelby made some edits to clarify his speculations and analyses:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4919568.msg44358289#msg44358289

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4919568.msg44421969#msg44421969

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[1Referee]

He also seems to think many or most altcoins might possibly decline to near 0 in 2019.

I dare anyone believing altcoins to become near worthless to short them, because instead of altcoins going to zero, your balance will go to zero.

We are dealing with people not caring about fundamentals, decentralization, currency aspect, etc. It all contributes to a situation where even the worst altcoins are worth billions which is pathetic but the damage is done already. It's impossible to bet against altcoins long term speaking because you are really going to burn yourself. Altcoin's get fueled by Bitcoin's increases and as long as Bitcoin keeps increasing, which it keeps doing, altcoins will follow.

[cellard]

$4600 would prove wrong the theory that Bitcoin cannot go below $5500-ish, which is the guesstimated cost of mining one bitcoin that I've heard lately. So far it seems to be working. Every time it breaks below $6k it gets a huge buy that creates big candle of up to $400+.

This doesn't guarantee anything but it's another resistance to considering given past precedence.

As far as all altcoins going near zero... I am not sure the market as a whole is mature enough to realize how most altcoins are shitcoins and they just should be holding as much BTC as possible on their portfolios. So when the next hype for crypto comes, I still expect another altcoin bubble.

[gentlemand]

$4600 would prove wrong the theory that Bitcoin cannot go below $5500-ish, which is the guesstimated cost of mining one bitcoin that I've heard lately. So far it seems to be working. Every time it breaks below $6k it gets a huge buy that creates big candle of up to $400+.

This doesn't guarantee anything but it's another resistance to considering given past precedence.

As far as all altcoins going near zero... I am not sure the market as a whole is mature enough to realize how most altcoins are shitcoins and they just should be holding as much BTC as possible on their portfolios. So when the next hype for crypto comes, I still expect another altcoin bubble.

And people said Bitcoin never went below its previous ATH until it did in 2015.

The markets don't care what anyone pays to mine a coin. That's the miner's problem and no one else's and I'll guess we might be shocked at how cheap it is for certain groups. Perhaps miners are in there batting away at the price but that seems like a rapid route to total ruin.

I've stopped giving a shit about the near term Bitcoin price. It'll be fine in the end. Is the $4000s possible? I don't see why not.

[buwaytress]

He also seems to think many or most altcoins might possibly decline to near 0 in 2019.

I dare anyone believing altcoins to become near worthless to short them, because instead of altcoins going to zero, your balance will go to zero.

We are dealing with people not caring about fundamentals, decentralization, currency aspect, etc. It all contributes to a situation where even the worst altcoins are worth billions which is pathetic but the damage is done already. It's impossible to bet against altcoins long term speaking because you are really going to burn yourself. Altcoin's get fueled by Bitcoin's increases and as long as Bitcoin keeps increasing, which it keeps doing, altcoins will follow.

Inclined to agree, but only when dealing with the top-tier or even second-tier alts. I don't have a specific categorisation that would qualify alts to these tiers, but having their own blockchain and active development would have to be a must.

I do believe that the hundreds of tokens that have launched in the past year are already struggling and the bulk of them don't have strong communities backing them, nor developers keen to spend even more time to revive their value and this will just further translate to delistings, and 0 liquidity, essentially, worthless.

But like you, I truly believe crypto is Bitcoin and Bitcoin is crypto. The fortunes of the entire market rest solely on Bitcoin's performance. For now, and for the foreseaable future.

[Jason.W]

I had one thought to add:

If bitcoin and alts were to rally two years in a row, this would likely classify quite a few people as accredited investors in the USA.

Assuming that quite a few folks sold enough to bring their income into the >200k USD range and likely both claimed and paid taxes to indicate this on their tax returns for last year, if the trend were to happen again this year .. it would actually allow many likely totally unprepared folks to now be technically qualifed as individual accredited investors, due to having earnings of over 200k for two years in a row, even if their total net worth is less than 1 million dollars.

Based off of this alone, I made a speculation that there would be no rally this year and if we were to pop to 10k again, it wouldn't be until after January next year if it were to rally at all. Naturally I didn't adhere 100% to my own speculation and have been buying (~50% back in already assuming a bottom in 2020) since going under 10k.

Because I might be totally off base in assuming that potentially creating accredited investors in one of the major sources of fresh bitcoin money would act negatively on the price in the medium term, or deeper down that thought is that the market is in any way rationally looking to protect itself.

Are there similar qualifications elsewhere that might cause some sort of natural tendency of large market traders to forego pushing the price up to profitable ranges?

[ssmc2]

Shelby's last prediction was that we'd be at 500k by 2025. Now he's saying not until 2031? Eh

[muslol67]

There are many people who believe in this view. After seeing 10K, a big drop is expected again. If such a thing really happens, a lot of people including myself will be tired of Bitcoin's investment. I hope this expectation goes away.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Altcoin's get fueled by Bitcoin's increases and as long as Bitcoin keeps increasing, which it keeps doing, altcoins will follow.

I question that logic, because if no one is using those altcoins or even buying them, they can go to zero as a practical matter.  Even if a coin fell to 1 satoshi, if there are no buyers, there's no chance for a person to sell what he has.  Take a look at the Yobit 1-satoshi graveyard.  Put in a sell order on one of the crappiest coins there, and that order might sit there forever, never getting executed.

As far as this prediction in the OP, who knows.  Crypto is pretty resistant to typical analysis, as I've said many times.  It's not like the stock market where there are businesses behind a stock.  Crypto has no earnings, no P/E, none of that--there's just news, rumor, and sentiment, which translates into demand.  I'm not sure if anything drives the price of a coin except supply and demand, so where a given coin is going to be 10 years or 5 minutes from now is just guesswork.

I do agree that a lot of coins are headed toward zero.  Most never get used for anything except speculation, and that will probably end at some point.  And think about it.  How many different coins can the market really support?  They just keep coming and a lot of them are just crap.  That can't continue indefinitely.

[infofront]

The problem as I see it is the extrapolation based on a limited amount of data. We're trying to make predictions based on a cycle that has completed only three times.

A simple alternative, for instance, could be a repeating A-B-C pattern. 3 part patterns are commonly seen across various markets.

Or the pattern could be more complex. Here's another alternative analysis of the (well, a similar set of) data:


Source: https://twitter.com/CryptoKaleo/status/1009156602039971840

[reactorjuno]

Let's be honest, the altcoin frenzy of last year was the real bubble. Would not surprise me at all if they all disappear soon, bar the ones that passed the test of time already.
Also, what I would like to point out is that the context of 2018 is far different from the context of 2015 or 2013, that's why I am a bit skeptical by the prediction of a price of 100,000$ for Bitcoin in 5 years from now.

[Febo]

About this bottom in Jan 2020 I think it is way to late. Bottom will happen way faster then this.  But the start of a bull run is total possible to start in beginning of 2020.  Not sure if we will see a $10000 BTC before we reach bottom.   However we look at it, it seems that most agree that now and next year is the best time of the rest of your life to buy Bitcoin. With exception of infofront chart that screams NOW!

$4600 would prove wrong the theory that Bitcoin cannot go below $5500-ish, which is the guesstimated cost of mining one bitcoin that I've heard lately.

There is nothing like estimated cost of mining.  Cost of electricity is more then 10 times higher in South Korea then in Venezuela. That is x10 factor.    Also when price decline people stop mining and with that difficulty decrease and that means that those miners that still mine get more Bitcoins for same hashpower.

This chart is simply amazing

[nidacoinlove]

Altcoin's get fueled by Bitcoin's increases and as long as Bitcoin keeps increasing, which it keeps doing, altcoins will follow.

I question that logic, because if no one is using those altcoins or even buying them, they can go to zero as a practical matter.  Even if a coin fell to 1 satoshi, if there are no buyers, there's no chance for a person to sell what he has.  Take a look at the Yobit 1-satoshi graveyard.  Put in a sell order on one of the crappiest coins there, and that order might sit there forever, never getting executed.

As far as this prediction in the OP, who knows.  Crypto is pretty resistant to typical analysis, as I've said many times.  It's not like the stock market where there are businesses behind a stock.  Crypto has no earnings, no P/E, none of that--there's just news, rumor, and sentiment, which translates into demand.  I'm not sure if anything drives the price of a coin except supply and demand, so where a given coin is going to be 10 years or 5 minutes from now is just guesswork.

I do agree that a lot of coins are headed toward zero.  Most never get used for anything except speculation, and that will probably end at some point.  And think about it.  How many different coins can the market really support?  They just keep coming and a lot of them are just crap.  That can't continue indefinitely.

We have seen some of the coin turned into trash after having a good price but what makes them a trash is their performance. People demand for a coin with good characteristics and when that coin fails to deliver, people throw it out of their portfolio. This process will continue in crypto because we see a number of coins and tokens are launched and added to the list.
Being a student of Finance, I know the fundamentally the analysis and evaluation of coin and have no hesitation to state that sometimes thing go against the analysis in crypto. Crypto is greatly affected by news and rumors, but it needs an attachment not only technically but sentimentally as well. You can feel the scent of upcoming happenings only when you are in love with crypto otherwise depending on technical stuff only may lead you to a great trouble.

[buwaytress]

The problem as I see it is the extrapolation based on a limited amount of data. We're trying to make predictions based on a cycle that has completed only three times.

A simple alternative, for instance, could be a repeating A-B-C pattern. 3 part patterns are commonly seen across various markets.

Or the pattern could be more complex. Here's another alternative analysis of the (well, a similar set of) data:

That's actually the entire encapsulation of the TA problem with Bitcoin. Extremely constrained data history. How long's the open market been in existence, 7 years at maximum? With today's kind of volume, 2 years maximum? 3 cycles is all it's ever had, 3 bubbles, and the first two were easily manipulable so should be discarded.

The case is even worse with altcoins. Patterns repeat, until they don't. And they only show up if you're looking for them.

[gentlemand]

There are many people who believe in this view. After seeing 10K, a big drop is expected again. If such a thing really happens, a lot of people including myself will be tired of Bitcoin's investment. I hope this expectation goes away.

I don't think we're going to see 10 grand again until it's on its way beyond it. It's similar to the $1000 level. That took three years to return to and once it was passed it didn't come back.

[noormcs5]

https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/re-anonymint-bitcoin-to-usd15k-in-march-usd8-5k-by-june-then-usd30-k-by-q1-2019-20180818t094501515z

He also seems to think many or most altcoins might possibly decline to near 0 in 2019.

Any thoughts? (not about him but the logic and data for the projections)

Do not believe in such articles. Although the article is written good and arguments are given with facts and numbers but that does not mean that altcoins will be down to zero in 2019. That's not gonna happen. Anyone can write anything on steemit and statements like these can give some views and up votes at the paying sites like steemit. So that's why we often come across such ridiculous articles every now and then.

[1Referee]

Inclined to agree, but only when dealing with the top-tier or even second-tier alts.

I question that logic, because if no one is using those altcoins or even buying them, they can go to zero as a practical matter.  Even if a coin fell to 1 satoshi, if there are no buyers, there's no chance for a person to sell what he has.  Take a look at the Yobit 1-satoshi graveyard.  Put in a sell order on one of the crappiest coins there, and that order might sit there forever, never getting executed.

I wasn't exactly referring to the absolute bottom of the crypto junkyard.

I was more referring to the visible top tier crypto currencies that you can actually short through one of the multiple platforms offering these trading features, which is why I said I dare anyone to short them. The top 10 crypto currencies are heavily tied to Bitcoin's price and more often than not don't move on their own, unless they get pumped out of nothing, but these pumps never last long since pumpers will cash out and tank the market down again.

People were initially heavily speculating about BCash to become worthless, but that hasn't really happened. With so much trading features available nowadays everyone can put their money where their mouth is and short them, but no one seems to be in the mood for that.

[podyx]

Source: https://twitter.com/CryptoKaleo/status/1009156602039971840

[cellard]

$4600 would prove wrong the theory that Bitcoin cannot go below $5500-ish, which is the guesstimated cost of mining one bitcoin that I've heard lately. So far it seems to be working. Every time it breaks below $6k it gets a huge buy that creates big candle of up to $400+.

This doesn't guarantee anything but it's another resistance to considering given past precedence.

As far as all altcoins going near zero... I am not sure the market as a whole is mature enough to realize how most altcoins are shitcoins and they just should be holding as much BTC as possible on their portfolios. So when the next hype for crypto comes, I still expect another altcoin bubble.

And people said Bitcoin never went below its previous ATH until it did in 2015.

The markets don't care what anyone pays to mine a coin. That's the miner's problem and no one else's and I'll guess we might be shocked at how cheap it is for certain groups. Perhaps miners are in there batting away at the price but that seems like a rapid route to total ruin.

I've stopped giving a shit about the near term Bitcoin price. It'll be fine in the end. Is the $4000s possible? I don't see why not.

I don't like to compare 2013's crash with the current crash. The fundamentals were terrible. I was ready to hit ridiculously low prices after the MtGox clusterfuck debacle. Very ready to hit below the april 8 2013th peak.

But right now things are different. The fundamentals aren't a nightmare that I can see, to justify super low prices.

As far as the cost of mining theory goes, I don't know how legit the actual numbers are, however I know self fulfilling theory is very legit, and at this point the $5500 ish barrier might have become a strong enough resistance that it's take in consideration for the market. I mean look at the graph, it always bounces back.


Could we go below there? sure. Would it break this theory? not really, unless we have a sustained period of price below the supposed cost of mining. If it happens then I guess the theory was wrong. But if we spend a week or so and then it quickly pumps back , it wouldn't really disprove it in my book.

[bobo012]

https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/re-anonymint-bitcoin-to-usd15k-in-march-usd8-5k-by-june-then-usd30-k-by-q1-2019-20180818t094501515z

He also seems to think many or most altcoins might possibly decline to near 0 in 2019.

Any thoughts? (not about him but the logic and data for the projections)

I think he has some good analysis, i particullary agree with him on altcoins. There are too much and all will not survive in the long term. Market caps are unnaturally inflated and non existing in reality. Purge will come, when i dont know

[realr0ach]

He also seems to think many or most altcoins might possibly decline to near 0 in 2019.

There was one point in time where NXT was at it's lowest of bear markets and I noticed I could short it to zero using only something like 6 BTC for the hell of it (I forget if NXT even had leverage enabled - probably not but I think it did).  Even though it would be an incredibly stupid idea, I almost did it anyway.  That's probably the closest you'll get to an altcoin reaching 0 until bitcoin itself dies from people noticing a combination of being designed to centralize and non-fungible makes it the ultimate new world order slavery system.

[Febo]

Whereas, if @infofront’s scenario is the outcome which Shelby also mentioned as the alternative scenario in his post, then altcoins would rise also. Whether altcoins would rise more than BTC and regain their lost ground is not certain. He offered the declining spreads model as a reason they may not, but he also questions that declining spread model as possibly being a backward looking metric.

However, I think he is implying that even if the ATH is coming in 2019 then in that scenario we are not currently in a 2014/15 cryptowinter, and that most altcoins will be a wasteland in the next crypto winter that follows the 2019 ATH. Again refer to @infofront’s excellent and tantalizing chart to visualize that alternative scenario.

Alts will be "wasteland" after reaching way higher levels as are right now. If Bitcoin goes to $100k+ next year, just like it went to new ATH at the end of 2014, that will push all alts way higher as they were 8 months ago and the Bitcoin bottom that will follow in 2020-2022 will be way over $20k. So also altcoins will be higher as was 8 months ago.    This is basically most optimistic prediction I heard. Well not really. I heard many bullshit. But a most optimistic prediction that on my opinion may even happen.

[infofront]

@infofront’s excellent and tantalizing chart

I'd just like to make it clear that it's not actually my chart. It's from a guy on twitter.  

[arpon11]

https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/re-anonymint-bitcoin-to-usd15k-in-march-usd8-5k-by-june-then-usd30-k-by-q1-2019-20180818t094501515z

He also seems to think many or most altcoins might possibly decline to near 0 in 2019.

Any thoughts? (not about him but the logic and data for the projections)

The market is about to resume another bullish trend and the sideways trend is about to be over.  Bitcoin is not going to have a bad day to the extent of falling to $4,600. I expect the $5500 to be the bottom except something very significant happen to the market.

[Traxo]

If Bitcoin goes to $100k+ next year

Shelby apparently thinks the highest will be $32k and he discovered that @infofront’s chart incorrectly labeled the position of the start of the first wave of cycle #1:

https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/most-important-bitcoin-chart-ever

https://medium.com/@shelby_78386/most-important-bitcoin-chart-ever-9bea6a4a5fdb

[Frances_McGlothlin]

Very interesting stuff guys. I see Shelby edited his Steemit post and he now considers two alternative possibilities:

1. Bottoming now with new ATHs in 2019. That was his original idea of a possible repeat of the mid-2013 correction. In this case altcoins would not crater.

2. Down to $4600ish now, followed by either #1 above or his other scenario.

Note he apparently made those edits before @infofront’s tantalizing post in this thread.

Do not believe in such articles. Although the article is written good and arguments are given with facts and numbers but that does not mean that altcoins will be down to zero in 2019. That's not gonna happen.

He states in the post that the altcoins going to near 0 in 2019 is contingent on the scenario of the bottom not coming until late 2019 or early 2020. In that case, altcoins would continue to decline more than Bitcoin, on every renewed decline of Bitcoin. Altcoins have lost so much ground relative to BTC since the peak in 2017. That would continue if the bottom will not be until more than a year from now.

Whereas, if @infofront’s scenario is the outcome which Shelby also mentioned as the alternative scenario in his post, then altcoins would rise also. Whether altcoins would rise more than BTC and regain their lost ground is not certain. He offered the declining spreads model as a reason they may not, but he also questions that declining spread model as possibly being a backward looking metric.

However, I think he is implying that even if the ATH is coming in 2019 then in that scenario we are not currently in a 2014/15 cryptowinter, and that most altcoins will be a wasteland in the next crypto winter that follows the 2019 ATH. Again refer to @infofront’s excellent and tantalizing chart to visualize that alternative scenario.

This is one of the most legit forecasts I've seen. There have been too many blind " 100k by 2k20!!!" forecasts that I stopped taking them seriously.

I've seen a few analyses that take into account the depreciation until the next halvening, but is bitcoin really going to gain after that? There are a lot of assumptions in this chart, namely that the cycle follows that same pattern, and more importantly that introduction of financial market tools like futures, ETFs and being considered for a major stock exchange don't have any impact on it. Statistics rarely lie though...

[statdude]

He's already been right about the alt bear market. They don't need to go down any more to prove his point from months ago, that they were going down, hard. Most will indeed go to 0, but some are probably due for a bounce...

[Deubila]

There are many people who believe in this view. After seeing 10K, a big drop is expected again. If such a thing really happens, a lot of people including myself will be tired of Bitcoin's investment. I hope this expectation goes away.

It is conjecture you do not worry too much. We should practice our skills. To face the challenges. Only absolute belief will win everything.

[Traxo]

If Bitcoin goes to $100k+ next year

Shelby apparently thinks the highest will be $32k and he discovered that @infofront’s chart incorrectly labeled the position of the start of the first wave of cycle #1:

https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/most-important-bitcoin-chart-ever

https://medium.com/@shelby_78386/most-important-bitcoin-chart-ever-9bea6a4a5fdb

Shelby updated that analysis linked above.

[bbc.reporter]

@Traxo. How reliable would your analysis be if it was compared to a real trader's analysis, like Tom Lee's $20,000 by the end of 2018 prediction?

We have witnessed many random people come and try but not one of them has predicted the market reliably.

[andrei56]

He also seems to think many or most altcoins might possibly decline to near 0 in 2019.

I dare anyone believing altcoins to become near worthless to short them, because instead of altcoins going to zero, your balance will go to zero.

We are dealing with people not caring about fundamentals, decentralization, currency aspect, etc. It all contributes to a situation where even the worst altcoins are worth billions which is pathetic but the damage is done already. It's impossible to bet against altcoins long term speaking because you are really going to burn yourself. Altcoin's get fueled by Bitcoin's increases and as long as Bitcoin keeps increasing, which it keeps doing, altcoins will follow.

Yeah altcoins are not going to disappear, I will agree that many of those coins are not necessary and do have a value of zero but people love to speculate with them because they cannot move the price of bitcoin the way they can move the price of altcoins, so altcoins become a way to earn money and nothing more so it doesn't matter if the coins are useless.

[Traxo]

@Traxo. How reliable would your analysis be if it was compared to a real trader's analysis, like Tom Lee's $20,000 by the end of 2018 prediction?

We have witnessed many random people come and try but not one of them has predicted the market reliably.

Two instances where he predicted the future. Silver at $26 to $45 then back below $26 several months before it happened:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23786.html


Bitcoin at $600 when everyone was pessimistic right as it began its moonshot to $19666 (and when @realr0ach sold BTC for silver lol):

https://steemit.com/money/@anonymint/speculation-rule-buy-when-others-are-irrationally-pessimistic-cautious
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1663070.0


Shelby has relayed to me in private chat, that Bitcoin is preparing to start its assault on $32,000! Probably start moving up significantly before the end of 2018. The chance of declining to $3000 has diminished to nearly ~0.

Note that Bitcoin’s current correction is likely a false move down, with the extension to $32,000 to continue into 2019 before the next crypto-winter begins in earnest. Next crypto-winter will bottom in 2021 at roughly just below $10,000. By end of the next decade, Bitcoin will be over $500,000.

Shelby was also vindicated yesterday for his long-standing prediction about the demise of unregulated ICOs.

[ssmc2]

Does he still think we could see a blow off top near 40-50k?

[Slow death]

He also seems to think many or most altcoins might possibly decline to near 0 in 2019.

Well, when he talks close to zero, this can be possible with many altcoins and as he does not specifically say what altcoins are that can fall to zero, then it seems that he is right, but in fact this is something that any person must have noticed. I think that doing this kind of comment in a time like this is not a good thing, because it only creates more unnecessary panic. Many altcoins are falling because people are selling to buy bitcoin and the reason is probably because of September 30th.

Does he still think we could see a blow off top near 40-50k?

It will be very difficult to reach these prices

[pitiflin]

$4600 would prove wrong the theory that Bitcoin cannot go below $5500-ish, which is the guesstimated cost of mining one bitcoin that I've heard lately. So far it seems to be working. Every time it breaks below $6k it gets a huge buy that creates big candle of up to $400+.

This doesn't guarantee anything but it's another resistance to considering given past precedence.

As far as all altcoins going near zero... I am not sure the market as a whole is mature enough to realize how most altcoins are shitcoins and they just should be holding as much BTC as possible on their portfolios. So when the next hype for crypto comes, I still expect another altcoin bubble.

Aren't all theories put in a false hope? Literally people are making up excuses and reasons to dump crypto.

Why does it suddenly feel like crypto is all of a sudden just become dead? Is it only me?

Support is doing good at trying to help bitcoin be a little stable, but won't last for long,people are panicking too much, after all 9 months of continuous bear season doesn't give out a great feeling to anybody. So 4600$ is possible, but unlikely.

[thejaytiesto]

The other day it was 9 11 and it made me think about it again...

I saw anonymint has made some posts on this subject. I have seen good arguments on both sides, with research by engineers etc. I can't still really decide. I remain open minded. But some things are really interesting... just like how Lucky Silverstein didn't show up there that morning because he had an appointment with a dermatologist and neither did family members that worked there apparently and he made like billions out of the disaster...

Deep down I refuse a bit that so much evil can exist. When it happened I was a kid and became a bit traumatized.

And its not just some barbaric primitive thing, the fact that its a very intricate series of events and planning makes it even more fucked up.

Anyway, big off-topic because fuck it, its the speculation section.

On the price itself.. let's say BTC hits $500k+ by around 2030 and we are all rich. Which countries will be safe places to stay? no point in having money if your country is or about to become flushed. I think it would be interesting to talk about that and plan ahead.

[STT]

Why does it suddenly feel like crypto is all of a sudden just become dead? Is it only me?

This is just the recent inflow of people, who have no context.   Its the holdings that very shortterm buyers unwind that leads to the action they fear.  As well as that population of people there are also long term users of bitcoin who are aware that 2017 was not a normal market layout for price accumulation.   In the end the two extremes in sentiment will balance out to even this period, it could be 9 months is not that long at all but I think the speed of change will slow anyhow

[1Referee]

On the price itself.. let's say BTC hits $500k+ by around 2030 and we are all rich. Which countries will be safe places to stay? no point in having money if your country is or about to become flushed. I think it would be interesting to talk about that and plan ahead.

It depends on how you plan to utilize your Bitcoin capital, and whether or not you have been keeping it under the radar all the time.

I still don't know how I am going to work out the latter. I'm paying due taxes over that what I use to trade on centralized exchanges, but that's not even 10% of my total holdings. The other 90% is neatly hidden far away from anything possibly being in a position to link these holdings to me personally. I did however expose myself to unnecessary privacy risks by waking up these coins because of how I couldn't resist dumping BCash for Bitcoin at prime rates.

[aencarnaci]

Support is doing good at trying to help bitcoin be a little stable, but won't last for long,people are panicking too much, after all 9 months of continuous bear season doesn't give out a great feeling to anybody. So 4600$ is possible, but unlikely.

I totally agree that support is doing well, but nothing is guaranteed even with the support doing good as long as the bears are still doing very well as well. The price movement and the faster red candles sure show that. Also, I do not believe that nothing is unlikely, it is the market, and whatever is bound to happen will happen anyways and all we will just have to do is to accept it when it comes, utilize it as an opportunity and get the best from it in the long run.

Its the holdings that very shortterm buyers unwind that leads to the action they fear.  As well as that population of people there are also long term users of bitcoin who are aware that 2017 was not a normal market layout for price accumulation.   In the end the two extremes in sentiment will balance out to even this period, it could be 9 months is not that long at all but I think the speed of change will slow anyhow

No context indeed! Well, I would not blame them; as long as there is no understanding, knowledge and they are not even ready to learn but want to get rich overnight, they will always see a market that is low in value as dead rather than taking the opportunity to buy the dips. Apparently, for someone to be able to take a dip seriously, such a person must have been able to visualize the possibilities that abound in the long term, something an ignorant person will not see.

[Traxo]

Why does it suddenly feel like crypto is all of a sudden just become dead? Is it only me?

That’s probably the summer bottom this banned dude expected. He wrote to me:

“I think we already had the capitulation. Do you not see the blood all over the alts? The BTC capitulation was in July. The alts capitulation was this past week. I bought ETH when Vitalik sold the bottom and got a nice bounce already to $220. We seem to be making higher lows since the key July 12 event which signaled that this was most likely indeed a reenactment of 2013 with a summer bottom on the way to the final EW pattern #5 peak. Also everything is flattening as we go forward in time. So lesser extremes are required.”

The other day it was 9 11 and it made me think about it again...

I saw anonymint has made some posts on this subject. I have seen good arguments on both sides, with research by engineers etc. I can't still really decide. I remain open minded. But some things are really interesting... just like how Lucky Silverstein didn't show up there that morning because he had an appointment with a dermatologist and neither did family members that worked there apparently and he made like billions out of the disaster...

Deep down I refuse a bit that so much evil can exist. When it happened I was a kid and became a bit traumatized.

And its not just some barbaric primitive thing, the fact that its a very intricate series of events and planning makes it even more fucked up.

Anyway, big off-topic because fuck it, its the speculation section.

Our banned dude actually nailed down the specifics more so you can be damn sure that 9/11 was a false-flag. Btw, Mueller was head of the FBI that covered it up 9/11. Read these following more technical summaries which are more convincing:

https://steemit.com/politics/@anonymint/re-anonymint-re-anonymint-succinct-absolute-truth-about-9-11-and-las-vegas-massacre-20180915t164833948z

(also read this after you read the above: https://steemit.com/politics/@anonymint/succinct-absolute-truth-about-9-11-and-las-vegas-massacre)

On the price itself.. let's say BTC hits $500k+ by around 2030 and we are all rich. Which countries will be safe places to stay? no point in having money if your country is or about to become flushed. I think it would be interesting to talk about that and plan ahead.

It depends on how you plan to utilize your Bitcoin capital, and whether or not you have been keeping it under the radar all the time.

I still don't know how I am going to work out the latter. I'm paying due taxes over that what I use to trade on centralized exchanges, but that's not even 10% of my total holdings. The other 90% is neatly hidden far away from anything possibly being in a position to link these holdings to me personally. I did however expose myself to unnecessary privacy risks by waking up these coins because of how I couldn't resist dumping BCash for Bitcoin at prime rates.

Our banned dude asks me to relay to you guys that it seems the Western politics is sliding very rapidly into chaos. Even just writing certain words online will soon be a hate crime.

VERY IMPORTANT: our banned dude wrote in great detail that he expects the U.S. Military will likely be lured with a false-flag into attacking Russia, and Russia will be forced to destroy the USA with nuclear ICBMs. The USA ICBMs will never be fired at Russia because the global elite are in control.

He thinks governance is improving in Asia whilst it is collapsing in the West. He received a letter from the Office of the President of the Philippines with official seal signed by Secretary of NEDA and cc'd to the President Duterte thanking him for his feedback on aligning with China and other suggestions including congratulating them on there hard stance against drugs.

He thinks kidnapping and crime will become more rampant in Latin America. Argentina is collapsing economically again. As Armstrong’s strong dollar-short vortex proceeds, then developing nations will be squeezed, but expect the Philippines to continue do well economically and ditto pretty much all the nations in Asia after mini-dip into 2020ish.

From 2021 forward, Bitcoin and Asia onwards to world domination. The West is toast. Any non-EU, non-Five Eyes white country might also be viable, such as Russia.

1Referee if you need legal, highly creative tax solutions I think you should contact ECASH on Crypto.cat. That’s how I talk to da banned man. Dig and you shall find.

[Reuel1]

What does banned dude think of the influence of the ICO circus being unraveled on the BTC price? Or does he think BTC bouncing will give that market a bit of a lifeline? It just feels weird to think BTC will have a strong upward run while ICOs and ETH bleed down...

[Traxo]

Here is an updated perspective:

https://steemit.com/blockchain/@anonymint/jesus-bitcoin-is-somewhat-sovereign-democracy-not

Also he wants to suggest that Costa Rica and Uruguay might reasonable alternatives in the Americas. In particular, Uruguay has a reasonably low crime rate, has a significantly European population, and they legalized marijuana to prevent the drug lords from having a profitable market there. Also foreign residents pay no taxes of foreign earned income and capital gains for 5 years. The GDP has been shrinking though, so looks like they will also have a crisis along with the rest of the world, especially with the neighboring Brazil and Argentina economies being so sick of late.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_taxation#Individuals

[fabiorem]

Just because the capitulation already happened, dont means we should be spending rocket memes. Price is still too cheap, too low. We need to be at least on 10k, which is half of last ATH, to start posting rocket memes. For now, its more apropriate to post elevators.

[Traxo]

@thejaytiesto and @Reuel1 asked for updates on the tangential issue:

https://steemit.com/politics/@anonymint/re-anonymint-re-anonymint-re-anonymint-re-anonymint-succinct-absolute-truth-about-9-11-and-las-vegas-massacre-20180924t131734749z

https://steemit.com/politics/@anonymint/re-anonymint-re-anonymint-re-anonymint-succinct-absolute-truth-about-9-11-and-las-vegas-massacre-20180924t115909836z

[raven7886]

The banned dude has been posting about this decline:

https://busy.org/@anonymint/re-anonymint-most-important-bitcoin-chart-ever-20181115t203603758z

He rebuked Craig Wright:

https://medium.com/@shelby_78386/craig-isnt-smart-enough-to-have-been-satoshi-and-he-knows-damn-well-that-satoshi-wasn-t-a-person-6d2f1b543576

I hate these prediction people. There is not a single person who can predict bitcoin price. The price didn't fall because of some indicator knowledge or anything, it dropped because Craig Wright sold a lot of bitcoins, thats all.

There are just 2 rules in price estimates of bitcoin ;
1- Nobody, NOBODY can guess the price and what will happen to bitcoin, 2- A lot of people think they are exceptions to this rule. There are no people in this earth who can estimate what bitcoin will do, out of a billion price predictions of course there will be some right ones but that doesn't mean they know what they are talking about. They do not. They have no idea and neither do we. We just hope that one day bitcoin will be at a price where we feel happy about selling and live a good life afterwards.

[fabiorem]

About Craig Wright, did Satoshi's original wallet moved recently, or is this just a bluff?

[gentlemand]

About Craig Wright, did Satoshi's original wallet moved recently, or is this just a bluff?

I think we would've heard that about a trillion times over in letters five miles high if that had happened.

As ever, everything that passes from his blow job lips is questionable in the extreme.

There was the address signing thing that was debunked from multiple angles.

[ssmc2]

So what are Shelby's thoughts on the current price level?

[Last of the V8s]

So what are Shelby's thoughts on the current price level?

Well I can't exactly keep up with Shelby Thought, but I know he keeps referring back to this chart

The problem as I see it is the extrapolation based on a limited amount of data. We're trying to make predictions based on a cycle that has completed only three times.

A simple alternative, for instance, could be a repeating A-B-C pattern. 3 part patterns are commonly seen across various markets.

Or the pattern could be more complex. Here's another alternative analysis of the (well, a similar set of) data:


Source: https://twitter.com/CryptoKaleo/status/1009156602039971840

afaiu He's bullish for a big surprise surge very soon now. And very bearish on altcoins.

[ssmc2]

So what are Shelby's thoughts on the current price level?

Well I can't exactly keep up with Shelby Thought, but I know he keeps referring back to this chart

The problem as I see it is the extrapolation based on a limited amount of data. We're trying to make predictions based on a cycle that has completed only three times.

A simple alternative, for instance, could be a repeating A-B-C pattern. 3 part patterns are commonly seen across various markets.

Or the pattern could be more complex. Here's another alternative analysis of the (well, a similar set of) data:


Source: https://twitter.com/CryptoKaleo/status/1009156602039971840

afaiu He's bullish for a big surprise surge very soon now. And very bearish on altcoins.

Hmm haven't seen anything recent but his steemit post where he mentioned that chart was followed up with this...

It should be before June 2010 and at $0.10 which is more evident on Kunal Sen’s chart from my prior post. Also the $100,000 expected peak price is much too high. My alternative scenario always had it at about $32,000 which agrees with both the declining spread model and the declining percentages in my table below.

[jbreher]

I received this today from Shelby via PM. Submitted here without commment for your consideration:

I written detailed analysis in my protonmail to several of you. But some of you are not in my trusted discussion group.


Bitcoin beginning a parabolic moonshot! Altcoins may crash now until later this year!



Here are the various projections I have for the new ATH price around March 2020:

1. $1154 ÷ $260 × $19666 = $87287     ($260 #3 on April 10, 2013)
2. $1154 ÷ $63 × $3122 = $57187       ($63 long-winded bottom after #3 in 2013)
3. $31 ÷ $1.10 × $19666 = $554223     ($1.10 #3 on Feb 10, 2011)
4. $32 ÷ $0.70 × $3122 = $142720      ($0.70 long-winded bottom after #3 in 20131)

($1154 for #5 and #1 on Nov 30, 2013, Bitstamp, projected to early March 2020)
($32 for #5 and #1 on Jun 8, 2011, Bitstamp, projected to early March 2020)


5. Drawing a line through the #3 in 2011 through the #3 in 2013, also runs through the #5 and #1 on Nov 30, 2013. Drawing a line through the #3 in 2013 through the #3 in 2017, project to approximately $133,000 for the #5 and #1 posited to occur March 2020.

6. A Markov model predicted the volatility range for Bitcoin in 1 year between $3k (our bottom) and $82k:

https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-bitcoin-price-prediction-for-2019/answer/John-Young-390

Here is some more on that:

https://medium.com/@VidrihMarko/bitcoin-2020-at-one-million-is-this-really-realistic-ca8992a23fbf

7. Let’s consider John Mcafee’s unspecified model:

https://micky.com.au/russian-economist-insists-us-sanctions-will-push-bitcoin-to-2m/

https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/john-mcafee-says-point-set-technology-puts-bitcoins-price-at-least-1-million-by-end-of-2020/

https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/887039604846714881

https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/1124436476962516994

Also realize his $1 million prediction is by the end of 2020, but he not considering the volatility in the price:

https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/938938539282190337

So crash in the price before the end of 2020 could derail his bet, even though in terms of fundamental valuation he might be correct.

But how could Mcafee be correct? Now look again at @infofront’s chart:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4919568.msg44351466#msg44351466


And read my reply to John Mcafee:

Quote from: https://twitter.com/iamnotback/status/1126843991637409792
If that #3 – #5 (2018–2020) is extension of #1 (≤ 2010) – #3 (2017), not #1 (2014)? (c.f. linked chart)

Quote from: https://twitter.com/iamnotback/status/1126845026716094464
Notice that #1 – #2 has a less steep slope than #3 – #5, thus returning to the rate of ascent of < 2011 for the coming #5, topologically connects patterns within patterns. Nature is fractal.

[Last of the V8s]

Here is the new chart which shows what should happen with the Bitcoin price from here. It is going to shock everyone because the price is headed to at least $0.4 million by roughly Q1 2020:

https://imgur.com/a/lMIIRyF

Here is a link to my blog comment post with the new chart and my written explanation of the patterns I have drawn on the original chart, which explain why John Mcafee is correct:

https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/re-anonymint-most-important-bitcoin-chart-ever-20190511t061008384z

https://busy.org/@anonymint/re-anonymint-most-important-bitcoin-chart-ever-20190511t061008384z

Would one of you (the first one to do it) please post an update to the following BCTalk thread where @infofront had posted the original chart:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4919568.msg44309946#msg44309946

You should link to my Steemit explanation and also include a copy of the chart image directly in the post. Here a direct link to the chart image:

https://i.imgur.com/dx9G5k8.png

[gentlemand]

At least we won't have to wait too long to find out.

I largely hope it doesn't pan out like that because it'll be virtually impossible to capitalise on it. I see little evidence of exchanges having significantly beefed up.

The longer it's been since the peak, the less keen I am on it happening again that way. I know it will all the same.

[infofront]

At least we won't have to wait too long to find out.

I largely hope it doesn't pan out like that because it'll be virtually impossible to capitalise on it. I see little evidence of exchanges having significantly beefed up.

The longer it's been since the peak, the less keen I am on it happening again that way. I know it will all the same.

I'm thinking that for it to be possible from a fundamental perspective, we'll need ETFs and shit.

Look at all the current/upcoming mainstream platforms that Joe Six-Pack will have available to trade Bitcoin on: ETFs + Bakkt + Robinhood + TD Ameritrade + E-Trade + Fidelity

Not only will drastically improved trading infrastructure and tools bypass the shit exchanges we've had so far (not much better than Magic The Gathering Online eXchange), but the real big money will have the green light to get in. More cautious and technologically impaired investors will suddenly have the impetus to get in.

Couple that with the fact that altcoins may get left behind for a significant portion of the next bull run, and we're in for the mother of all bubbles.

[jbreher]

You should link to my Steemit explanation and also include a copy of the chart image directly in the post. Here a direct link to the chart image:

https://i.imgur.com/dx9G5k8.png

[gentlemand]

I'm thinking that for it to be possible from a fundamental perspective, we'll need ETFs and shit.

Look at all the current/upcoming mainstream platforms that Joe Six-Pack will have available to trade Bitcoin on: ETFs + Bakkt + Robinhood + TD Ameritrade + E-Trade + Fidelity

Agreed. I don't think things can notch up a level without a higher tier of platform. What's out there at present won't cut it.

That also means that shitcoins won't get a look in as most won't be considered by any of them.

[dwgscale11]

Looking better than better

[infofront]

Banned dude updates projections with lots more details: https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/re-anonymint-most-important-bitcoin-chart-ever-20190511t061008384z

[Last of the V8s]

Okay I have added significantly AGAIN to these posts:

https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/re-anonymint-most-important-bitcoin-chart-ever-20190511t061008384z

Also make sure you see the following up post where I have added a three wave price prediction model which targets a Bitcoin price of $208k and $1.5 million (likely 2020 and 2021):

https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/re-anonymint-re-anonymint-most-important-bitcoin-chart-ever-20190513t203453167z

I doubt I will make any more edits.

further updoot
edit:
further update of the update

I also added another more detail price projection scenario chart. Might help if someone displays (not just link) one or both of these images in the BCTalk thread.

[Last of the V8s]

I added a more precisely computed timing, detailed scenario chart. And this is scary and also I think this is the most likely outcome. I really think we are going to $78k within this week! WTF!

I hope Last of the V8s can add this last update to his update of the update of the update of the BCTalk thread. Because this is the most shocking of the scenarios and it precisely matches (proportionally scaled) the timing and moves in 2010/2011.

I promise that is the last one.

This crazy price action coming could potentially destroy many exchanges. And the likely reason for a potential nosedive from $78,000 to $1700 as depicted on the above linked chart!

I hope I’m incorrect!

Yikes

Thanks a bunch Shelby

[guoyu78]

People be saying stuffs like this, but later they will be the ones buying lots of altcoins and storing them and even talking about investing in new projects. I thought cryptocurrency is powered by the community right? They said the more demand the more the price goes up and the lesser the demand for it the prices goes down? So if it's that way, what makes you think then that altcoins will be going to zero when there are still a lot of people who are making use of it, or do these people just have plain hatred for altcoins? This is not the first person I'm seeing say this. Okay, I do know that there are lots of small altcoins that dies every day, but if altcoins are going to fall to zero, you should count the top 100 altcoins out of it, because those are not going down in any way.

[Last of the V8s]

Another comprehensive update and elaboration:

https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/re-anonymint-re-anonymint-re-anonymint-most-important-bitcoin-chart-ever-20190518t002235787z

This one is important to read not only for the new insight into Bitcoin price future, but also for the extensive detail on the future of the USA and the global economy.

Here is a new posited scenario chart:

https://imgur.com/a/mb88myS

[WinslowIII]

People be saying stuffs like this, but later they will be the ones buying lots of altcoins and storing them and even talking about investing in new projects. I thought cryptocurrency is powered by the community right? They said the more demand the more the price goes up and the lesser the demand for it the prices goes down? So if it's that way, what makes you think then that altcoins will be going to zero when there are still a lot of people who are making use of it, or do these people just have plain hatred for altcoins? This is not the first person I'm seeing say this. Okay, I do know that there are lots of small altcoins that dies every day, but if altcoins are going to fall to zero, you should count the top 100 altcoins out of it, because those are not going down in any way.

Shitcoins serve no purpose other than to take market cap away from bitcoin. I wish they would all die, but I don't want to see everyone lose their asses either. It would be great to see everyone dump them for bitcoin and watch bitcoin hit $1m!

[Last of the V8s]

People be saying stuffs like this, but later they will be the ones buying lots of altcoins and storing them and even talking about investing in new projects. I thought cryptocurrency is powered by the community right? They said the more demand the more the price goes up and the lesser the demand for it the prices goes down? So if it's that way, what makes you think then that altcoins will be going to zero when there are still a lot of people who are making use of it, or do these people just have plain hatred for altcoins? This is not the first person I'm seeing say this. Okay, I do know that there are lots of small altcoins that dies every day, but if altcoins are going to fall to zero, you should count the top 100 altcoins out of it, because those are not going down in any way.

Shitcoins serve no purpose other than to take market cap away from bitcoin. I wish they would all die, but I don't want to see everyone lose their asses either. It would be great to see everyone dump them for bitcoin and watch bitcoin hit $1m!

Shelby wants me to inform you, that [you] don’t realize what you wish for. Refer to the following linked blog:

https://steemit.com/money/@anonymint/rise-of-hard-money-is-a-harbinger-of-misery

His stance on altcoins is more nuanced:

As @infofront is quoted below as mentioning, I also posit that altcoins lag as they always do when BTC is rising fast, as can be confirmed on the LTCBTC historical chart.

Note altcoins have been losing leverage against BTC since roughly the start of April 2019. Altcoins can lead BTC after an oversold bottom, but then they shift back to lagging again after the initial over enthusiasm. This pattern can clearly be seen on the LTCBTC chart for the prior cryptowinter.

Also note LTCBTC has been losing leverage (i.e. decelerating, as spikes are lower) over time even though it’s highly volatile (i.e. spikes), which is expected by the S/Fs model. Presumably because rate of relative acceleration on the S/Fs model between LTC and BTC has narrowed.

Thus we can expect smaller and newer altcoins of merit to have miraculous leaps up in relative value to BTC during pauses and declines in the staircase ascent of BTC depicted in my model.

[Last of the V8s]

Stocks-to-Flows Model Provides a Plausible Reason for Coming BTC Price Acceleration:

https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/re-anonymint-re-anonymint-most-important-bitcoin-chart-ever-20190521t130454806z

[Last of the V8s]

This extended pause and consolidation seems to be very bullish for BTC. I expect the BTC price to come back down significantly one more time to less than $7150 before the end of the month, and possibly $6900 within the next 3 days which should bring the long/short ratio down to an acceptable 1.15 (or below) so bull move can blast off to $10,000+:

https://imgur.com/a/iIPMhl9



It’s possible to come down to the lower trendline support on my chart above at ~$6100, but that seems MUCH less likely. Anything lower than that before moving higher seems very, very unlikely, but anything is possible.

Readers in the thread may also want to check out my latest blog:

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@anonymint/secrets-of-bitcoin-s-dystopian-valuation-model

[jbreher]

Vastly Lates' name is ironic once again. Deleted redundant post.