Bitcoin is 'capped' at 20k maximum now, because of high Fees (till when?)

[Roccker]

Hi  there!

So if Bitcoin would go to 20k in eg december 2018 -
then fees would go cracy high like 50usd again, wouldn't it?
Is that right?

I mean, what do we have, a few more % adoption of segwit, which does.. not do anything much, does it?
Anything we have now that we don't had in last december 2017?

So basically bitcoin is capped at eg 15k (when did fee's become cracy?) - until lightning is mass adopted?
What is a guess of timeframe for lightning mass adoption - 3 years?

[1714005080]

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[1714005080]

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[1714005080]

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[gentlemand]

Segwit is now regularly delivering blocks far above 1mb compared to back then but the more important one is the increased amount of batching used by services with a lot of on chain throughput. That's what'll deliver consistently lower fees.

When Coinbase went down for a bit it appeared they were responsible for a vast percentage of Bitcoin transactions. https://bitcoinist.com/mempool-coinbase-spamming-bitcoin/
they're working on batching too which will release a huge amount of space.

Many have theorised that those super high fees were created by miners, probably Bitmain, spamming the blockchain to drive up fees to draw attention to scaling and Bcash. As they collect most of the fees they can afford to recirculate them.

And price doesn't necessarily indicate fees. It's hype and frenzy. If there was a monster crash it's possible fees would spike heavily as people rushed to buy and sell. If it got to 20 grand slowly over a few years without excitement fees might still remain in the cents.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

During december bitcoin was under spam attack - that overload network and create those high fees. Of cours there was also increased number of transfers but mostly due to extremly high volatility rather than high prices(lots of transfer from wallet to exchange to sell bitcoin which is now 20k and week ago was 10k and from exchanges/kantors to wallets made by newbies buying in fomo- it wont happend if we will slowly go to 20k)

Massive volume is made by exchanges. If only they will add segwit network wont suffer that much. We dont need every user to use lightning to unload network.


edit:

agreed

[Roccker]

Great stuff, thanks


Ok, eg coinbase, bitfinex, binance, kraken, nanex since about 03 2018 (https://cryptoslate.com/top-exchanges-slash-bitcoin-transaction-fees-segwit-adoption-spreads/)

Segwit adoption: https://p2sh.info/dashboard/db/segwit-usage?orgId%3D1%26from%3Dnow%252Fy%26to%3Dnow&orgId=1&from=now-1y&to=now

Ok, now 40% of transactions are segwit, it started 1 year ago, 08 2017



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Does Bitcoin become unusable again at 20k like December 2017, with 50usd fees?

No, now it’s better:
- More Segwit Adoption since last time (eg coinbase, bitfinex, binance, kraken, nanex since about march 2018 (https://cryptoslate.com/top-exchanges-slash-bitcoin-transaction-fees-segwit-adoption-spreads/), this will help. Now (08 2018 40% of transactions are segwit, it started 1 year ago at 08 2017 with 0%)

- More Exchanges now Batch their transactions, this also helps.
(https://www.ccn.com/after-last-years-mempool-drama-batched-bitcoin-transactions-finally-on-the-rise/)

- Perhaps: Bitmain spamming the bitcoin network (?) – if they stop doing that, it also helps.

- Also: it’s not about price, it’s about number of transactions. A slow steady upcrawl is possible (but not parabolic bubble)

- Lightning (in next 3 years?)
- Schnorr Signatures (in next 3 years?)

Number of transactions waiting to be confirmed: from 120k at top of bubble to 4k or less since 03 2018
https://www.blockchain.com/charts/mempool-count?timespan=1year&daysAverageString=7&showDataPoints=true

[1Referee]

Segwit is now regularly delivering blocks far above 1mb compared to back then but the more important one is the increased amount of batching used by services with a lot of on chain throughput. That's what'll deliver consistently lower fees. 

The stipped size of blocks is still capped at 1MB and that's exactly what the blockchain absorbs, regardless of the increased virtual block size due to Segwit.

Segwit only makes sure that more transactions can fit within that fundamentally capped 1MB block, which is its biggest advantage in terms of providing a temporary scaling solution.

It's a shame that till this day Segwit isn't being utilized by more than 50% of the network. It's clearly a big block attack to not devalue their asic boost technology. Assholes that they are.

A fully deployed Segwit network could fit like 6000-7000 transactions within 1MB block, which is insane. It will last us a year or two, easily.

[BrewMaster]

what you are mistaking is that fees don't go up because of high price. fees go up because of only one things: more transactions

now the question is what increases the number of transactions.
well there are multiple things. the major ones are these:
- people using bitcoin as a currency for purchases, transferring money,...
- traders moving funds to and from exchanges selling/buying bitcoin and also altcoins
- spam attacks
1 and 2 increase during price rises but the second one also increases during price drops. for example today price is not changing that much but 2 days ago when price was playing with $6000 and $5900 there were a lot of transactions from people panic selling and others who were accumulating cheap coins.
and spam attacks can happen at any time.

now to answer your main question, it doesn't matter if bitcoin is worth $1 or $1000000. what matters is how we got there. if for instance price slowly creeps up to that high price we won't see that much of an increase in number of transactions. but if it shoots up there, then we will see a huge rise in the number of transactions because obviously people seeing the rise (like last year from $9k to $20k in less than a month) are selling their coins and others are buying coins and that means tx on the chain.

[Febo]

Hi  there!

So if Bitcoin would go to 20k in eg december 2018 -
then fees would go cracy high like 50usd again, wouldn't it?
Is that right?

No. with no spam fees could be few $. By the time we will see $20k Bitcoins I am sure there will be some technical solutions to reduce price of transactions more.

[newinbtc]

Hi  there!

So if Bitcoin would go to 20k in eg december 2018 -
then fees would go cracy high like 50usd again, wouldn't it?
Is that right?

No its not true , there are lot of development happens in last 6 months and bitcoin is spited into further currency like bitcoin gold and swigget.
First its impossible to reach 20k$ by 2018 December. It may happen in upcoming 3 years by 2021 year.
its good if it reach 20k$ again I may become rich by investing now and sell later.

fees only increasing according to demand on mined blocked , Lots of pending tranx , High electricity Rate , many other factors such as High amount of fund transferring from one country to another country with help of bitcoins. The fees go to the miners to incentivise them to keep mining, which in turn keeps the Bitcoin network secure.

[aso118]

Prices went up to $20k. Fees went up as well. It is not sufficient to conclude that one was the cause of the other.
Fees may go up without the price going up blindly. Conversely, the price might go up and fees may remain low. The only thing which impact fees is the transaction backlog. So the conclusion that Bitcoin's maximum price capped is wrong.

[exstasie]

So if Bitcoin would go to 20k in eg december 2018 -
then fees would go cracy high like 50usd again, wouldn't it?
Is that right?

I mean, what do we have, a few more % adoption of segwit, which does.. not do anything much, does it?
Anything we have now that we don't had in last december 2017?

So basically bitcoin is capped at eg 15k (when did fee's become cracy?) - until lightning is mass adopted?
What is a guess of timeframe for lightning mass adoption - 3 years?

I don't think fees "cap" the price at all. There's no evidence for that. If you compare fee trends with price trends, fees appear to follow price. Logically, that's because rising price coincides with rising network activity.

Segwit and any other linear throughput increases will only offer limited scale. Lightning and perhaps other mechanisms like sidechains will be integral, but it's impossible to tell when adoption will take off. For now, LN is not user-friendly at all.

[Yaunfitda]

Hi  there!

So if Bitcoin would go to 20k in eg december 2018 -
then fees would go cracy high like 50usd again, wouldn't it?
Is that right?

I mean, what do we have, a few more % adoption of segwit, which does.. not do anything much, does it?
Anything we have now that we don't had in last december 2017?

So basically bitcoin is capped at eg 15k (when did fee's become cracy?) - until lightning is mass adopted?
What is a guess of timeframe for lightning mass adoption - 3 years?

The network spammers is gone, trading exchanges are batching their transactions and people are adopting Segwit now. So I doubt that we will see a network clogged if ever bitcoin tops $20K again at the end of the year.

And I get your idea that bitcoin is capped because of fees.

Lightning is still in beta phase, as far as I know (please someone correct me if I'm wrong), And until its rolled out, we don't know the extend of its adoption.

[exstasie]

Lightning is still in beta phase, as far as I know (please someone correct me if I'm wrong), And until its rolled out, we don't know the extend of its adoption.

According to Core's version sequencing, Bitcoin is still in beta as well. So that doesn't tell us much.

Beyond the question of LN adoption, its effects are even harder to estimate because LN has a different security model than regular Bitcoin transactions. For that reason, it's hard to know what percentage of transactions could be offloaded onto LN, even after the network is robust and usable. For most of my own uses cases, Lightning isn't really desired or feasible.

[Wind_FURY]

Segwit is now regularly delivering blocks far above 1mb compared to back then but the more important one is the increased amount of batching used by services with a lot of on chain throughput. That's what'll deliver consistently lower fees.  

The stipped size of blocks is still capped at 1MB and that's exactly what the blockchain absorbs, regardless of the increased virtual block size due to Segwit.

Segwit only makes sure that more transactions can fit within that fundamentally capped 1MB block, which is its biggest advantage in terms of providing a temporary scaling solution.

It's a shame that till this day Segwit isn't being utilized by more than 50% of the network. It's clearly a big block attack to not devalue their asic boost technology. Assholes that they are.

A fully deployed Segwit network could fit like 6000-7000 transactions within 1MB block, which is insane. It will last us a year or two, easily.

It is not a "big block attack". Haha.

Users and merchants have the freedom to use and adopt Segwit if they want, and if they do not want to, ok. If you want to know what a real big block attack is, it's when some people spread the propaganda that "Bitcoin Cash is the real Bitcoin".

OP, simple answer. Because of the limited space per block, yes the fees will rise.

[el kaka22]

People explained a lot better than I could but that is basically the gist of it.

Bcash and bitmain + volatility + huge user number increase + sudden attention and all that combined created bitcoin to jammed and it costed a lot for the people however if today that were to happen like $20k and not that many people got interested or it were to happen slowly over time than you can be sure that the price will not increase in fee's.

The important part is the jamming of bitcoin with tons of actions of buying selling (basicaly sending and receiving) and that jams the blockchain, if you do it over time, it will always be better.

[1Referee]

It is not a "big block attack". Haha.

Users and merchants have the freedom to use and adopt Segwit if they want, and if they do not want to, ok. If you want to know what a real big block attack is, it's when some people spread the propaganda that "Bitcoin Cash is the real Bitcoin".

Till you realize that Bitmain & Co have stakes pretty much everywhere in this ecosystem. It is a big block attack.

It's in everyone's (except the big block camp) benefit to have a fully deployed/utilized Segwit network in order to significantly increase Bitcoin's throughput, but it's not happening. If users love the freedom to choose, then they shouldn't complain about the fees, but they do, which makes them look like a bunch of retarded hypocrites in that case. You not seeing that this is an attack on Bitcoin is just funny.

[Wind_FURY]

It is not a "big block attack". Haha.

Users and merchants have the freedom to use and adopt Segwit if they want, and if they do not want to, ok. If you want to know what a real big block attack is, it's when some people spread the propaganda that "Bitcoin Cash is the real Bitcoin".

Till you realize that Bitmain & Co have stakes pretty much everywhere in this ecosystem. It is a big block attack.

It is not an attack but greed. It will always be in the interest of Bitmain for Bitcoin to be successful.

It's in everyone's (except the big block camp) benefit to have a fully deployed/utilized Segwit network in order to significantly increase Bitcoin's throughput, but it's not happening. If users love the freedom to choose, then they shouldn't complain about the fees, but they do, which makes them look like a bunch of retarded hypocrites in that case. You not seeing that this is an attack on Bitcoin is just funny.

But adoption is slowly climbing. I believe Segwit adoption is already on 50%. Let the users decide, sooner or later they will know that there is nothing to be afraid of.

Fees though, will still go up. I believe Segwit is not enough for scaling on-chain.

[adam1230]

Until Halving happens. After the next halving bitcoin will skyrocket and its going to hard to own 1 Bitcoin.
Thats why charlie said that you have to own at least 1 bitcoin for future.
So get your bitcoins now while its so cheap

[Pursuer]

But adoption is slowly climbing. I believe Segwit adoption is already on 50%. Let the users decide, sooner or later they will know that there is nothing to be afraid of.

Fees though, will still go up. I believe Segwit is not enough for scaling on-chain.

based on block sizes that I see are common I don't think the SegWit adoption is at 50% otherwise block sizes should have been higher than what we see these days. although this is just my observation not stats.

as for scaling, nothing will ever be enough for on-chain scaling. we just have to  increase it as much as we can while having the least amount of downsides.

[Wind_FURY]

But adoption is slowly climbing. I believe Segwit adoption is already on 50%. Let the users decide, sooner or later they will know that there is nothing to be afraid of.

Fees though, will still go up. I believe Segwit is not enough for scaling on-chain.

based on block sizes that I see are common I don't think the SegWit adoption is at 50% otherwise block sizes should have been higher than what we see these days. although this is just my observation not stats.

as for scaling, nothing will ever be enough for on-chain scaling. we just have to  increase it as much as we can while having the least amount of downsides.

There is a site graphing how much Segwit adoption there is. The last time I visited it had Segwit adoption around 45% and fast-moving to 50%, which I believe, could be there by now.

[Roccker]

Liquid is also live now.
It's for Crypto-Exchanges, to send and receive Bitcoin off-chain,
so this reduces the amout of on-chain bitcoin transactions.


Over 500 Bitcoin in lightning Network-Channels right now.

How many do we need for this to really be 'significant'?

50 000?
500 000?
5 000 000?

Of the 21 million bitcoins.